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| 11/22 |
| 2008/6/24-27 [Transportation/Car, Transportation/Car/RoadHogs] UID:50363 Activity:high |
6/24 It amazes me how stupid people are about economics. Don't people
realize that "speculators" make things better?
\_ Because no politician has the guts to say: "Suck it up and move on,
it's demand and supply and the government can't and shouldn't do
anything about gas prices". Because no politician has the guts to
say "Look, how about YOU consume less gas, then you will spend less
anything about gas prices". Because no politician has the guts to say
"Look, how about YOU consume less gas, then you will spend less
money on it? How about living closer to work, avoiding distant
suburbs, using carpools or public transport, or trading in your
"barn-on-wheels" grocery-getters and 300HP single occupant commuter
appliances for something more efficient?" No politician wants to say
that and no consumer seems to want to hear this either. There are no
enough drama or opportunities to pander to voters in the traditional
"demand and supply" explanation for the fuel price situation.
suburbs, using carpools or public transport,
or trading in your "barn-on-wheels" grocery-getters and 300HP
single occupant commuter appliances for something more efficient?"
No politician wants to say that and no consumer
seems to want to hear this either. There are
no enough drama or opportunities to pander to voters in the
traditional "demand and supply" explanation for the fuel price
situation.
\_ Sorry but this is flat out stupid. People live far from their
jobs because the price of a house or rental is so much lower
even taking into account the huge increase in gas prices we've
seen since 2006. I want to live in your fantasy world where we
can all simply choose to live near work. Do you really truly
think people drive 2+ hours a day because they like driving?
All these people could swap out their Hummers for shitboxes
cutting their gas costs by 50% or whatever and they'll still get
creamed. The reality is there aren't that many large vehicles
doing long commutes. I drive a V8 guzzler. I drive it fast.
Here's the math: I use ~1000 gallons per year getting about 20
mpg. At $5/gallon for premium that's $5k/year. I can switch to
a crap car, get 30 mph and pay 20 cents less per gallon. That's
a savings of 333 gallons and $1800/year. Whoop-ti-do. I've
saved the earth. And it's 400HP, thanks. There is plenty
enough oil out there, insufficient refinery capacity and a ton
of stupid laws that create different magical blends of gas that
distort the market. I'm sure the oil companies are doing a-OK
on my wallet, too. Drill, build some refineries, consolidate
blend requirements across similar regions, and prices will drop.
Econ 1. The big question is: do the people in control of these
things *want* the price to drop? Hello Congress and State law
makers?
\_ I _know_ childrenless couples who opt to drive one hour each
way to their work just so that they could afford to
live in a ginormous house even though they could live for the
same amount of money in a perfectly nice two bedroom house
or an apartment in a nice safe neghborhood, 5 to 10 minute
drive distance from their work for the same money.
(no that's not in Bay Area). So yes, my claim was entirely
stupid. Next, refinery situation is not nice, but you won't
lower the gas prices by much simply by simplifying the blends
and regulations. About 75% of the price of gas you pay
at the pump simply covers the price of oil that was used
to make this gas. The rest is refining and distribution.
Streamlinging refinery regulations would knock off a few cents
at best. If every person who drives a gas guzler actually
did something to lower gas use by 30% like you propose above,
the prices wouldn't be so "bad" right now. The proven oil
reserves in the parts of the US where you can't drill will
increase the supply of US made oil only marginally, and we
still will end up importing most of our oil from abroad.
I am not saying we shouldn't drill more, but McCain's and GWB
push to open more areas for drilling will not fix any problems
in the short term, and hardly make a big difference in the
long term.
\_ Do you read the viking hall of manliness website too?
\_ Since you know nothing and have nothing intelligent to
say you have to resort to a cheap personal attack. Good
call. That worked for me in 5th grade, too.
\_ 0.o That site breaks my brain.
\_ http://arthurshall.com
\_ People live far from their jobs because they are selfish
jerks who don't care how much suffering they cause other people
just so long as they get their 5 bedroom 3 bath home on half
an acre full of junk from Target. Homes are 50% larger then
they were in the 50's and families are smaller now. A smaller
car is not really going to fix the fundamental problem.
jerks who don't care how much suffering they cause other
people just so long as they get their 5 bedroom 3 bath home
on half an acre full of junk from Target. Homes are 50%
larger th[a]n they were in the 50's and families are smaller
larger then they were in the 50's and families are smaller
now. A smaller car is not really going to fix the fundamental
problem.
\- gee, i guess even economists who debate things like hot money
and the effects of high capital mobility are "stupid about
economics". liquidity is generally good. but speculation is
more complicated and might be "net" good, but not necess
"all good". also not everybody is in the position of the
dollar and a very large domestic economy.
YMWTGF(GSOROS, sterilization).
how about signing your name when calling other people stupid? --psb
\_ http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121426475050198395.html
\_ I do when I specify names. The nearly universal complaints about
commodity speculators is silly.
\- "i do when i specify names" is kinda silly.
second, in your OP you didnt resrict your comment
to commodity speculation. the FX futures mkt and
the mkt for financial hedges and speculation is
much bigger than the commodities mkt, so that would
hardly be a default assumption. --psb
\_ It is always easier to blame someone else for your troubles
than accept your own part in the problem.
\_ Well informed speculators make things better. Get rich quick idiots
can throw prices totally out of whack, which is bad for necessities
like food and shelter.
\_ Exactly. There is a mass of people who just follow whatever the
trend is. They hear dot com they balloon that up, housing ditto,
now energy and commodities. They are idiots because the majority
of them in each case don't realize the large paper gains, and
meanwhile they cause short term problems and volatility.
\_ It is not clear to me what kind of problems dot com
speculators caused, other than a temporary misallocation of
capital. It is not like driving up the cost of WebVan stock
caused a shortage of anything.
\- just out of curiosity, what do you consider the diff
between a <DEAD>dot.com<DEAD> "speculator" and a <DEAD>dot.com<DEAD> "investor"
to be ... i mean it is meaningful to talk about a
hedger vs a speculator in a commodity or in the FX mkt,
but it's not totally clear how to differentiate in the
case of a stock ... or do you mean some vague either
focusing on time horizon or "second order" investments
[calls/puts, shorts, butterflies etc]. |
| 11/22 |
|
| arthurshall.com MITT ROMNEY FOR VP 06/12/08 -- Why Mitt is the Right Choice for John McCain What role does a Vice Presidential candidate play? In typical years, a VP pick tends to be motivated by loyalty, friendship or simple electoral math. The VP nominee, historically, has had a nominal effect on the general election. Most Americans are not happy with the direction the nation is going. Both President Bush and the Democratic Congress have historically low approval ratings. The source of that frustration, in my view, is the negative tone and hyper-partisanship that has typified the last 16 years of American politics. People want something different, for better (McCain) or for worse (Obama). Why is a pissed off electorate relevant to a discussion about John McCain's running mate? A CALL TO ARMS 05/18/08 -- Men, It is Time to get Involved! John McCain is our nominee for President of The United States. He was not the unanimous choice but, in the end, he won the Republican nomination and now another chapter begins in this historically insane election cycle. Since his coronation as party leader I have noticed that most Republicans are on board with him as our nominee. Two months ago, it seemed (to some idiots in the media) that the party would be split but we, in true GOP form, have closed ranks and that is a good thing. The main reason for this, I believe, is that we are witnessing a complete debacle on the Democratic side. Obama, on the other hand, has had a tough couple of months and the so-called "Obamaicans" have now been introduced to Jeremiah Wright, The Weathermen and his flaccid inability to knock out a flawed opponent. At this point, I don't give a damn which of those two is the nominee. They are both a nuisance and neither is stronger than the other... When samurai would compose soulful haikus in the shade of a cherry blossom grove. When the Empire of the Sun stretched all the way across the pacific and dared to challenge the sleeping American giant. Now the people who once ruled the Pacific, humbled by their defeat in WWII, have evolved. Like a bold young clefairy in the presence of a moonstone, Japan has risen from the ashes of the Enola Gays thermonuclear doose and transformed into a new being- a group consciousness, void of decency, logic or pride.. We talk a lot about manliness and what that means here on Arthur's Hall of Viking Manliness. It often takes the form of political conservatism, weightlifting, responsibility, tobacco use and as some would say, unhealthy love of guns. I got to thinking about how we are to live our lives on a day-to-day basis. Rather than wax poetic with complicated themes of manliness I thought I would give you "50 Do's and Don'ts for a Real Man". Ill be the first to admit that at times, it was often difficult being a fan of the most storied franchise in NFL history. My family is from Wisconsin, however I did not grow up in the land of cheese, so it was a rarity to have the opportunity to watch my beloved Packers play on the local channels. In fact, it was hard to watch sometimes, even when it was on. There were few bright spots during those years, better known as the "dark-ages" of Green Bay annals. My father would be the first to tell me of this so-called venerable team. Monumental stories of Jerry Kramer, Ray Nitschke, and Forrest Gregg being led by the immortal Vince Lombardi in many legendary battles such as the "Ice Bowl." He even handed down his Bart Starr autographed football to my brother and me, as though he was trying to prove that this team was once existed. I vaguely remember sitting around the television set watching Lynn Dickey tossing the ball to James Lofton, then later Don Majkowski - The Majik Man - throwing it to Sterling Sharpe in what appeared to be a slightly promising future for the Pack. Were these moments to be the end of our decades-long slump? Not just yet, patience, maybe next year over and over again maybe next year... I know that for many of you this title of this article may be a bit disturbing. In the case of Rob Halford, you could not be more wrong. Arthur's Hall of Viking Manliness does not generally consider homosexuality very manly. This article is mostly about Rob Halford but it is also about how we view homosexuality here on the Hall. We here at the Hall do not give a damn what people do in their bedrooms. Legislating individual choice and preference is an affront to conservatism. We stand for individual liberty and that does encompass sexual behavior. What we do not appreciate is the thought that people are entitled to different social status due to their sexuality... THE RISE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION 02/05/08 -- and the loss of liberty, freedom, and human rights at a fundamental level To many idealists living in the United States, the European Union is the height of international cooperation and socialized living, where everyone is equal. Healthcare is provided for, and there are civil service jobs available to all. The IMF has the EU ranked 1st in the world for GDP, and social liberalism has firmly taken root to make all things better... THE MANLIEST GAME CONSOLES 01/19/08 -- Shatner Defines Video Game Manliness! Why am I writing an article about the manliest video game consoles? first, it is damn fun to step outside the conservative/libertarian politics and cartoonish (yet completely sincere) ape-like chest thumping of the majority of the content on Arthur's Hall for some old-school nerdiness. Our "Manliest Games" article was a hit all over the Internet, and brought tons of traffic and interesting people to Arthur's Hall. I suppose magic happens when you write about something you really are excited about, and I do love classic games. Happily, I also love archaic video game hardware and I do feel as if I have something substantial to say on this topic. So here it is men, and women (all three of you plus Colette Bennett), The 5 Manliest Video Game Consoles of All Time!... ARTHUR IS PISSED 01/14/08 -- Arthur Defines Viking Conservatism! I am fed up with faux (or as I will call it from here forward "Fox") conservatism. Forget the divide and conquer "51 percent" mantra of Karl Rove. It is a superior ideology but many Fox conservatives have perverted it to the point where I don't recognize it anymore. We have betrayed our hero and greatest president, Ronald Reagan. Like many of you, I was raised during the Reagan administration. As a six year old child, I told my father to vote for Reagan in 1984 due to his support of "Star Wars" missile defense. I have a bigger audience now and the cause is as important as it was in 1984. Conservatives face a choice, we can get back to real conservatism or face political extinction. ARTHUR'S PICK FOR PRES 01/02/08 -- The Official Viking Endorsement! As we enter 2008, we, as Americans, have an important duty. We GET (and I emphasize GET) to choose our next president. This choice and process of electing a President is not to be taken lightly or for granted. Most of the other civilized nations use a psarliamentary system while most of the world's people are mere lemmings for dictators and despots. And the truth is that most of those nation's leaders are irrelevant because their nations are irrelevant. We choose who will be the most powerful man (and yes I meant man) in the world for the next four years, a weighty thing to be sure... VIKING PHILOSOPHY 12/16/07 -- Practical Philosophy for the Every-day Viking What is philosophy? It has been many things to many men throughout the ages, but if you said it is presently a system used by emasculated college professors to justify failure and weakness you would be right. Philosophy, like many once great enterprises (like music, micro brewing, and democracy) has been taken over by metrosexuals and perverted into a threat to society itself. There was once a time when men where men and greatness was greatness. CAPITALISM AND ENVIRONMENTALISM 11/21/07 -- How Hippies are Destroying Our Environment Among dirty, tree-hugging hippies (Figure 1), there is a common sentiment that capitalism is inherently evil and will result in the destruction of our environment. Ive argued with some of these hippies before, and tri... |
| online.wsj.com/article/SB121426475050198395.html MORE REVIEW & OUTLOOK Political Speculators June 24, 2008; Page A18 Every dogma has its day, and so it is with the posturing that blames the run-up in oil prices on "speculators." The new political consensus is that further "common-sense regulation" of the energy futures market is necessary. Let's grant that the sentiment is common, but the sense - like the evidence - is nonexistent. On Sunday, Barack Obama rolled out a proposal that will supposedly thwart market manipulation by "a few energy lobbyists and speculators." John McCain chimed in that Mr Obama was merely following his lead; last week, the Republican denounced "some people on Wall Street" for "gaming the system." If there's a Congressman who isn't calling for his own crackdown, he's gone into witness protection. And sure enough, even this week's impromptu oil summit in Jeddah blamed "speculators" for high prices. The futures market may be a convenient scapegoat, but it's simply a price discovery mechanism. Major energy consumers - refiners, airlines - buy and sell these contracts to lock in goods at a future price, as a hedge against volatility. Essentially, they're guesses about coming oil supply and demand, as well as the rate of inflation. The political theory is that such futures trading is creating a bubble in the spot market (ie, oil purchased for immediate delivery) beyond oil fundamentals. But there's no inherent reason to "bet" that commodities will go up rather than down. Bet wrong - place all your chips on red, say - and you lose. If a company purchases the future right to buy oil at $140 a barrel and it instead sells for $130, the option is worthless. Besides, somebody has to take the other side of any futures contract: Some are trying to predict where the price will go in the future, while the other side is attempting to sell its future price risk. But speculators - normally known as "traders" - are really managing the exposure risks of American businesses to higher oil prices. Traders not affiliated with major producers or consumers provide liquidity to the market. Without the second group, futures markets would be determined exclusively by commercial participants. One omnipresent talking point is that the so-called "Enron loophole" must be closed. A provision inserted in legislation in 2000 exempted certain oil contract exchanges where transactions were made via computer and telephone, rather than on a trading floor, from regulations that govern other exchange-traded commodities. But Congress ended that practice as part of its most recent farm bill, and there's no evidence that "over the counter" trading has caused the increase in oil prices. The political enthusiasm seems to arise solely from the word "Enron." Mr Obama and his fellow Democrats are also exercised because the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) doesn't directly oversee US subsidiaries of foreign exchanges. For instance, the global futures market of London-based Intercontinental Exchange is regulated by the UK Financial Services Authority. But the FSA has extensive information-sharing agreements with the CFTC. It also has similar standards for the daily position and trade monitoring that ensures market integrity and transparency. In this global business, some of the more stringent antispeculation proposals would merely divert futures trading to Dubai or less regulated exchanges. Another supposed problem is the rise of commodity index funds, a newer market that is estimated at anywhere from $140 billion to $250 billion. Michael Masters, a Virgin Islands-based fund manager who has the ear of Democrats, blames pension funds and university endowments. Essentially, these investors buy futures and roll them from month to month as they come due, allowing a constant investment without holding oil or natural gas stocks. Yet these financial instruments are only new in the sense that they apply traditional stock-market indexing to commodities. It's hard to see how this is irresponsible, and if anything it's the reverse: Indexing is favored by investors who think it's imprudent to gamble on short-term price swings. Loose monetary policy has caused price jumps across nearly all commodities, including surges in grains and precious and base metals. The Fed's rate-cut bender is the most important reason oil is up so sharply since last August. The other major factor is supply and demand, as prosaic as that might seem amid today's political agitation. Energy consumption is surging in China and India, and global supply is not growing fast enough to keep up. Congress could do something useful if it opened up America's vast natural resources, which are blocked by environmentalist romanticism. But then, it's so much easier to shoot the price messengers. |