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| 2008/6/3-9 [Science/GlobalWarming] UID:50144 Activity:low |
6/3 Our spotless sun
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime-images.html
http://csua.org/u/lp6 (nationalpost.com)
\_ Original article by PK CHAPMAN: http://csua.org/u/lp7
Rebuttal by D KAROLY: http://csua.org/u/lp8
Both op-eds in The Australian
\_ It sure would be nice if the two effects balanced out.
I don't think the climate models included solar variation.
\_ http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/image-description.html
"In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at
60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at
1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5
million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees."
So, as temperature goes up, the wavelength first decreases then
increases? That doesn't make sense to me.
\_ It doesn't make a lot of sense to me either, but materials
at temperatures radiate over a wide spectrum of wavelengths.
It's just that the peak radiation level decreases in frequency
with increasing temperature. In a sense, you can observe
a body at a temperature at any wavelength--you just won't
necessarily be viewing the wavelength at which peak output
occurs.
\_ Obviously you are a shill for the global warming hoax.
\_ What does a discussion on radiation output w.r.t.
wavelength and temperature have anything to do with global
\_ What does a discussion on black body radiation output
w.r.t. wavelength and temperature have to do with global
warming?
\_ The Global Warming deniers claim that the temperature
increase is due to sunspot activity. At least some of
them do.
\_ You mean the nonexistent temperature increase? |
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| sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime-images.html June 04, 2008 06:15:46 UT - Mission Day: 4569 - DOY: 156 About us search SOHO home about gallery data/archive operations publications newsroom classroom community DATA/ARCHIVE Archive Start Science Archive I/F Real time images The Sun now MPEG movies GIF movies Search Real Time Data The Very Latest SOHO Images Search Tool for Near Real Time Data About these images See only the latest images in a new window or, in the older six images version EIT 171 EIT 195 EIT 284 EIT 304 More EIT 171 More EIT 195 More EIT 284 More EIT 304 256 256 256 256 256 256 256 256 512 512 512 512 512 512 512 512 1024 1024 1024 1024 1024 1024 1024 1024 MDI Continuum MDI Magnetogram LASCO C2 LASCO C3 More MDI Continuum More MDI Magnetogram More LASCO C2 More LASCO C3 256 256 256 256 256 256 256 256 512 512 512 512 512 512 512 512 1024 1024 1024 1024 1024 1024 1024 1024 REAL TIME MOVIES MPEG Animated GIFs For details on comets or planets, visit the sungrazer pages European Site o US Site Feedback & Comments: SOHO Webmaster Last modification: Apr 18, 2008 SOHO and SOHO SOHO is a project of international cooperation between |
| csua.org/u/lp6 -> network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2008/05/31/the-deniers-our-spotless-sun.aspx sunspots With the debate focused on a warming Earth, the icy consequences of a cooler future have not been considered By Lawrence Solomon You probably haven't heard much of Solar Cycle 24, the current cycle that our sun has entered, and I hope you don't. If Solar Cycle 24 becomes a household term, your lifestyle could be taking a dramatic turn for the worse. That of your children and their children could fare worse still, say some scientists, because Solar Cycle 24 could mark a time of profound long-term change in the climate. As put by geophysicist Philip Chapman, a former NASA astronaut-scientist and former president of the National Space Society, "It is time to put aside the global warming dogma, at least to begin contingency planning about what to do if we are moving into another little ice age." The sun, of late, is remarkably free of eruptions: It has lost its spots. By this point in the solar cycle, sunspots would ordinarily have been present in goodly numbers. Chapman and others -- may be an anomaly of some kind, and the sun may soon revert to form. But if it doesn't - and with each passing day, the speculation in the scientific community grows that it will not - we could be entering a new epoch that few would welcome. Sunspots have been well documented throughout human history, starting in the fourth century BC, with written descriptions by Gan De, a Chinese astronomer. In 1128, an English monk, John of Worcester, was the first person known to have drawn sunspots, and after the telescope's arrival in the early 1600s, observations and drawings became commonplace, including by such luminaries as Galileo Galilei. Then, to the astonishment of astronomers, they saw the sunspots diminish and die out altogether. This was the case during the Little Ice Age, a period starting in the 15th or 16th century and lasting centuries, says NASA's Goddard Space Centre, which links the absence of sunspots to the cold that then descended on Earth. During the coldest part of the Little Ice Age, a time known as the Maunder Minimum (named after English astronomer Edward Maunder), astronomers saw only about 50 sunspots over a 30-year period, less than one half of 1% of the sunspots that would normally have been expected. Other Minimums -- times of low sunspot activity -- also corresponded to times of unusual cold. The consequences of the Little Ice Age, because they occurred in relatively recent times, have come down to us through literature and the arts as well as from historians and scientists, government and business records. When Shakespeare wrote of "lawn as white as driven snow," he had first-hand experience - Europe was bitterly cold in his day, a sharp contrast to the very warm weather that preceded his birth. During the Little Ice Age, the River Thames froze over, the Dutch developed the ice skate and the great artists of the day learned to love a new genre: the winter landscape. In what had been a warm Europe , adaptations were not all happy: Growing seasons in England and Continental Europe generally became short and unreliable, which led to shortages and famine. These hardships were nothing compared to the more northerly countries: Glaciers advanced rapidly in Greenland, Iceland, Scandinavia and North America, making vast tracts of land uninhabitable. The Arctic pack ice extended so far south that several reports describe Eskimos landing their kayaks in Scotland. Finland's population fell by one-third, Iceland's by half, the Viking colonies in Greenland were abandoned altogether, as were many Inuit communities. The cold in North America spread so far south that, in the winter of 1780, New York Harbor froze, enabling people to walk from Manhattan to Staten Island. In the same way that the Earth shivered when sunspots disappeared, the Earth warmed when sunspot activity became pronounced. The warm period about 1000 years ago known as the Medieval Warm Period -- a time of bounty in which grapes grew in England and Greenland was colonized -- also was a time of high sunspot activity, called the Medieval Maximum. Since 1900, Earth has experienced what astronomers call "the Modern Maximum" -- the 20th century has again been a time of high sunspot activity. But the 1900s are gone, along with the high temperatures that accompanied them. The last 10 years have seen no increase in temperatures -- they reached a plateau and then remained there -- and the last year saw a precipitous decline. How much lower and for how long the temperatures will fall, if at all, no one yet knows -- the science is far from settled on what drives climate. But many are watching the sun for answers, and for good reason. Several renowned scientists have been predicting for some time that the world could enter a period of cooling right around now, with consequences that could be dire. "The next little ice age would be much worse than the previous one and much more harmful than anything warming may do," believes Dr. "There are many more people now and we have become dependent on a few temperate agricultural areas, especially in the US and Canada. Global warming would increase agricultural output, but global cooling will decrease it." We are now at the beginning of Solar Cycle 24, so named because it is the 24th consecutive cycle that astronomers have listed, starting with the first cycle that began in March, 1755, and ended in June, 1766. each is marked by sunspots that first erupt in the mid latitudes of the sun, and then, over the course of the 11 years, erupt progressively toward the sun's equator; each is marked by a change in the polarity of the sun's hemispheres; each changes the temperature on Earth in ways that humans don't fully understand, but cannot in all honesty deny. The Deniers: The world-renowned scientists who stood up against global warming hysteria, political persecution, and fraud. com Photo: The spotless Sun, as it appeared yesterday at 12:48 pm The Sun's spotlessness is giving rise to speculation of another Little Ice Age. Click here to post a comment by Floyd123 May 31 2008 11:45 AM Wow what a genius that Stephane Dion is. Here I thought he was out of touch again but he must have been watching the sun and realized a carbon tax on home heating would be a real money maker. Those poor seniors though who have just got big tax reductions from Jim Flaherty through income splitting and the TFSA's that will help preserve their estates will see it all evaporate as they pay carbon taxes instead of income taxes while their furnaces run through the summer. by Paul M May 31 2008 12:32 PM This news really should put to rest the "humans did it" mindset on climate. The anthropogenic hypothesis never made any sense, and yet thousands of climate scientists believe in it. Climate scientists: it's time to move on and recognize that humans are a small, very small, factor in climate change, and that, if the planet is cooling, it's crazy to worry about putting CO2 into the air because it might warm things up.... by Fran39 May 31 2008 1:44 PM Eric Hoffer, 1951 - "The True Believer - Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements" P11 "When hopes and dreams are loose in the streets, it is well for the timid to lock doors , shutter windows and lie low until the wrath has passed. For there is often a monstrous incongruity between the hopes, however noble and tender, and the actions that follows them. It is as if ivied maidens and garlanded youths were to herald the four horsemen of the apocalypse. Their innermost craving is for a new life - a rebirth - or failing this, a chance to acquire new elements of pride, confidence, hope, a sense of purpose and worth by an identification with a holy cause. " and P 13 " It is true that in the early adherents of a mass movement there are also adventurers who join in the hope that that the movement will give a spin to their wheel of fortune and whirl them to fame and power." cit) And Eric Hoffer, 1979 - "Before the Sabbath" p 7 " I am curious about Pechorin, a Russian intellectual of the mid-nineteenth century who wrote a poem on "How sweet it is to hate one's native land and eagerly await its annihilation." Please include your name, home address a... |
| csua.org/u/lp7 -> www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23583376-7583,00.html com, where you will find a real-time image of the sun from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, located in deep space at the equilibrium point between solar and terrestrial gravity. What is scary about the picture is that there is only one tiny sunspot. Disconcerting as it may be to true believers in global warming, the average temperature on Earth has remained steady or slowly declined during the past decade, despite the continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, and now the global temperature is falling precipitously. All four agencies that track Earth's temperature (the Hadley Climate Research Unit in Britain, the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, the Christy group at the University of Alabama, and Remote Sensing Systems Inc in California) report that it cooled by about 07C in 2007. This is the fastest temperature change in the instrumental record and it puts us back where we were in 1930. If the temperature does not soon recover, we will have to conclude that global warming is over. There is also plenty of anecdotal evidence that 2007 was exceptionally cold. It snowed in Baghdad for the first time in centuries, the winter in China was simply terrible and the extent of Antarctic sea ice in the austral winter was the greatest on record since James Cook discovered the place in 1770. It is generally not possible to draw conclusions about climatic trends from events in a single year, so I would normally dismiss this cold snap as transient, pending what happens in the next few years. The sunspot number follows a cycle of somewhat variable length, averaging 11 years. The first sunspot appeared in January this year and lasted only two days. A tiny spot appeared last Monday but vanished within 24 hours. The reason this matters is that there is a close correlation between variations in the sunspot cycle and Earth's climate. The previous time a cycle was delayed like this was in the Dalton Minimum, an especially cold period that lasted several decades from 1790. Northern winters became ferocious: in particular, the rout of Napoleon's Grand Army during the retreat from Moscow in 1812 was at least partly due to the lack of sunspots. It is time to put aside the global warming dogma, at least to begin contingency planning about what to do if we are moving into another little ice age, similar to the one that lasted from 1100 to 1850. There is no doubt that the next little ice age would be much worse than the previous one and much more harmful than anything warming may do. There are many more people now and we have become dependent on a few temperate agricultural areas, especially in the US and Canada. Global warming would increase agricultural output, but global cooling will decrease it. Millions will starve if we do nothing to prepare for it (such as planning changes in agriculture to compensate), and millions more will die from cold-related diseases. There is also another possibility, remote but much more serious. The Greenland and Antarctic ice cores and other evidence show that for the past several million years, severe glaciation has almost always afflicted our planet. The bleak truth is that, under normal conditions, most of North America and Europe are buried under about 15km of ice. This bitterly frigid climate is interrupted occasionally by brief warm interglacials, typically lasting less than 10,000 years. The interglacial we have enjoyed throughout recorded human history, called the Holocene, began 11,000 years ago, so the ice is overdue. We also know that glaciation can occur quickly: the required decline in global temperature is about 12C and it can happen in 20 years. The next descent into an ice age is inevitable but may not happen for another 1000 years. On the other hand, it must be noted that the cooling in 2007 was even faster than in typical glacial transitions. If it continued for 20 years, the temperature would be 14C cooler in 2027. By then, most of the advanced nations would have ceased to exist, vanishing under the ice, and the rest of the world would be faced with a catastrophe beyond imagining. Australia may escape total annihilation but would surely be overrun by millions of refugees. Once the glaciation starts, it will last 1000 centuries, an incomprehensible stretch of time. If the ice age is coming, there is a small chance that we could prevent or at least delay the transition, if we are prepared to take action soon enough and on a large enough scale. For example: We could gather all the bulldozers in the world and use them to dirty the snow in Canada and Siberia in the hope of reducing the reflectance so as to absorb more warmth from the sun. We also may be able to release enormous floods of methane (a potent greenhouse gas) from the hydrates under the Arctic permafrost and on the continental shelves, perhaps using nuclear weapons to destabilise the deposits. We cannot really know, but my guess is that the odds are at least 50-50 that we will see significant cooling rather than warming in coming decades. The probability that we are witnessing the onset of a real ice age is much less, perhaps one in 500, but not totally negligible. All those urging action to curb global warming need to take off the blinkers and give some thought to what we should do if we are facing global cooling instead. It will be difficult for people to face the truth when their reputations, careers, government grants or hopes for social change depend on global warming, but the fate of civilisation may be at stake. In the famous words of Oliver Cromwell, "I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken." Phil Chapman is a geophysicist and astronautical engineer who lives in San Francisco. Email To A Friend Share This Article From here you can use the Social Web links to save Sorry to ruin the fun, but an ice age cometh to a social bookmarking site. Slashdot Email To A Friend * Required fields * Recipient's Name:* Required * Recipient's Email:* Required * Your Name:* Required * Your Email:* Required * Email Format:* HTML Text Only * Your Comments:* Required Information provided on this page will not be used for any other purpose than to notify the recipient of the article you have chosen. Robust economy fuels rate rise talk James Glynn A RESILIENT Australian economy has defied widespread expectations of a sharp slowdown and fuelled speculation of another rate rise. Schools' computer cash still a guess Justine Ferrari THE commonwealth is yet to finalise how much it will provide to each state and school system to purchase computers. Five abandon troubled Ninemsn Lara Sinclair INTERNET publisher Ninemsn appears on the brink of collapse following the resignations of CEO Tony Faure and mobile head Chris Noone. Pay claim means staff cuts, VCs say Bernard Lane THE Group of Eight universities would have to lay off staff if they agree to a 27 per cent pay claim, Go8 chairman Alan Robson warns. Hillary gives Barack one more kick Tim Reid in New York THERE was dancing, clapping, defiance, warnings, pride and rallying cries for more than 17 million voters. Defence chief to apologise to Zaetta ENTERTAINER Tania Zaetta will receive an apology over unsubstantiated claims she had sex with Australian soldiers in Afghanistan. |
| csua.org/u/lp8 -> www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23612876-11949,00.html Print David Karoly | April 29, 2008 THE opinion piece by Phil Chapman ("Sorry to ruin the fun, but an ice age cometh", Opinion, April 22) warns of an approaching ice age but contains a number of factual errors, misleading statements and incorrect conclusions. Chapman reports global average temperature cooled by 07C in 2007 and says: "If the temperature does not soon recover, we will have to conclude that global warming is over." It is true that global data sets show a pronounced cooling from January2007 to January 2008 of slightly less than 07C. It is an error to state, as Chapman does, that this is unprecedented, as similar dramatic falls occurred from 1998 to 1999, and from 1973 to 1974. It should also be noted that the global average temperature has warmed substantially, by about 03C from January 2008 to March 2008. In addition, the annual average temperature for 2007 was within 01C of the average temperature in 2006 and 2005; So what caused this rapid cooling during 2007, and also from 1998 to 1999, and from 1973 to 1974? In each case, the common factor was a rapid change from El Nino to La Nina conditions, from warm temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean to cold temperatures in the same region, which has a significant effect on global climate patterns and global average temperature. La Nina is associated with below-normal global average temperature, and because of its influence, 2008 is likely to be about 03C cooler than the average of the previous few years. Chapman did not consider La Nina as a cause of the cooling in 2007 and instead linked it to the minimum in the 11-year cycle in sunspot numbers: "The first sunspot appeared in January this year and lasted only two days. A tiny spot appeared last Monday but vanished within 24 hours. I don't know where these sunspot numbers came from but they are in error. The best source of data for present sunspot numbers is the World Data Centre for Solar Terrestrial Physics at the National Geophysical Data Centre in Boulder, Colorado. According to it, the average number of sunspots a day last January was 34, followed by 21 in February and 93 in March. So, are variations in global average temperature directly related to sunspot numbers on a monthly, annual or decadal timescale? Certainly not on a monthly timescale and the effect, if any, on a year-to-year timescale is very small, as can be found by correlating the variations of global average temperature on monthly or annual timescales with the sunspot numbers. Any relationship between sunspot numbers and global average temperatures is much, much smaller than the clear relationship between inter-annual variations of equatorial Pacific Sea surface temperatures and global average temperatures, showing the effect of the El Nino-La Nina cycle. While those errors are bad enough, the main flaw in Chapman's opinion is trying to infer long-term climate trends from short-term (one year) variations of global temperature. It is well known (among climate scientists) that there are large inter-annual variations of global temperature caused by a number of factors, including El Nino, big volcanic eruptions, or just the chaotic variability of the climate system. It is not possible to make conclusions about long-term climate trends from inter-annual climate variations. Many lines of evidence support the conclusion reached last year by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that "warming of the climate system is unequivocal", referring to changes over the past 100 years. Even when we consider only the global average temperature during La Nina episodes, such as the present cool period, we find that we are experiencing the warmest global temperature of any strong La Nina episode in the past 100 years, again showing clear long-term global warming. Most of the increase in global average temperature over the past 50 years is due to the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This long-term increase in global average temperature will continue throughout the 21st century because of further increases in greenhouse gases. Yes, there will be year-to-year natural climate variations, with some colder years, but the long-term warming trend will continue. An ice age is definitely not going to occur in the 21st century. Instead, we will all need to make very large reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases if we are to minimise dangerous anthropogenic climate change. David Karoly is a professor in the University of Melbourne's school of earth sciences and a member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists. Slashdot Email To A Friend * Required fields * Recipient's Name:* Required * Recipient's Email:* Required * Your Name:* Required * Your Email:* Required * Email Format:* HTML Text Only * Your Comments:* Required Information provided on this page will not be used for any other purpose than to notify the recipient of the article you have chosen. Robust economy fuels rate rise talk James Glynn A RESILIENT Australian economy has defied widespread expectations of a sharp slowdown and fuelled speculation of another rate rise. Schools' computer cash still a guess Justine Ferrari THE commonwealth is yet to finalise how much it will provide to each state and school system to purchase computers. Five abandon troubled Ninemsn Lara Sinclair INTERNET publisher Ninemsn appears on the brink of collapse following the resignations of CEO Tony Faure and mobile head Chris Noone. Pay claim means staff cuts, VCs say Bernard Lane THE Group of Eight universities would have to lay off staff if they agree to a 27 per cent pay claim, Go8 chairman Alan Robson warns. Hillary gives Barack one more kick Tim Reid in New York THERE was dancing, clapping, defiance, warnings, pride and rallying cries for more than 17 million voters. Defence chief to apologise to Zaetta ENTERTAINER Tania Zaetta will receive an apology over unsubstantiated claims she had sex with Australian soldiers in Afghanistan. |
| sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/image-description.html LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself. The position of the solar disk is indicated in the images by the white circle. The most prominent feature of the corona are usually the coronal streamers, those nearly radial bands that can be seen both in C2 and C3. Occasionally, a coronal mass ejection can be seen being expelled away from the Sun and crossing the fields of view of both coronagraphs. The shadow crossing from the lower left corner to the center of the image is the support for the occulter disk. C3 images have a larger field of view: They encompass 32 diameters of the Sun. To put this in perspective, the diameter of the images is 45 million kilometers (about 30 million miles) at the distance of the Sun, or half of the diameter of the orbit of Mercury. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere. MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager) images shown here are taken in the continuum near the Ni I 6768 Angstrom line. The magnetogram image shows the magnetic field in the solar photosphere, with black and white indicating opposite polarities. |