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Mankind's only alternative 16 MAY 08 Mankind's only alternative The War Nerd , From Lebanon To Iraq: We're In Deep Shia Now By Gary Brecher Iraq Police Academy 6: Doin' The Mosul Shuffle!
ARTICLE_ID=18297&IBLOCK_ID= 35 The other clue that might help is that Sadr's Mahdi Army in Iraq is totally based on Nasrallah's Lebanese Hezbollah, so--to kinda give it away a little--in just over a month's time, you've got two Shia militias stomping the better-armed and -funded old-style powers in Arab countries a thousand miles apart. Item #2, the move on Mosul, is the trick question here, because there are no Shia to speak of up there; the Iraqi Army is moving against Al Qaeda in Iraq up there. As you chew on that food fer thought, let's fill in the details on what happened and why in this week's sudden Shia-ization of what the media always call "fashionable West Beirut." The Hezzies don't get her babble, but they hear the word "shoot" and it all goes to pieces very fast. That's one of the first thing a supermodel's got to learn: don't say "shoot" around a nervous militiaman who thinks women should wear black hefty bags, head to foot, even when showering. Hezbollah took their beach trip on May 9, but it wasn't announced to anybody in the media. It would be like West LA being overrun by Baptist gangs from Bakersfield. And there was nothing the cool Lebanese could do about it but sneer and whine and blog. In the blog-o-sphere battle, the West Beirut coolsters won hands down. these are commuter troops, and what they did was pack their weapons--mostly rifles and RPGs, some of the rifles looking surprisingly new and expensive--in the trunks of their little fuel-efficient sedans, and head back to the slums of South Beirut. It's part of a pattern that isn't supposed to be happening all across the Middle East: the Shia militias are kicking serious ass. In the past few weeks we've seen weirdly identical moves by weak central governments in Iraq and Lebanon to push back against Shia militias: in Iraq, al-Maliki's government, acting as a front for al-Hakimi and the Badr Brigades, tried to "assert itself" against Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army in Basra and in Sadr City; and now the weak interfaith committee trying to run Lebanon moved against Hezbollah, firing their security chief at the airport and cracking down on Hezbollah's private communication network, which apparently has 100,000 private telephone lines running. Nasrallah, the mullah who runs Hezbollah, called that crackdown a "declaration of war" against his boys and sent them out onto the streets of West Beirut, where the rich Sunni Muslims live. There's no armed Sunni group in Lebanon that can stand against Hezbollah. The BBC is now calling Hezbollah "by far the strongest force in Lebanon," which may seem pretty obvious now but is a huge surprise to all the so-called experts. You see, the Shia aren't supposed to count at all in Lebanon. The Lebanese constitution lays down that the President has to be a Maronite Christian, because they were the big players in 1943 when the thing was written. The Prime Minister has to be a Sunni Muslim, because they were next. But the Shia weren't consulted at all, because they were nothing--a bunch of hicks down in the southern and eastern boonies. Since then a lot of those hicks have moved into Beirut, and the ones who stayed home made a name for themselves by having a lot of babies who grew up to be the best guerrilla fighters in the country. They forced Israel out of Southern Lebanon in 2000 and took on the Israeli armed forces one-on-one in 2006, and came out of it looking like heroes. Since then, the Hezbollah leader, Nasrallah, who's pretty obviously a smart dude, has parlayed his victory into national popularity. He didn't let his people gloat too openly--instead of the yellow Hezbollah flag, he told them to wave the Lebanese red-white-and-green (the one with the tree, even though there ain't hardly any of those trees left in the place any more, just like the California Grizzly on our flag). "--usually in a safe quiet voice, where nobody'd hear, but they were saying it. And that spelled death for the old godfathers who run these places, especially Lebanon. Lebanon is like NYC without the money: it's all sleazy politicos and gangs profiting from ethnic grandstanding politics. And the key there is, you've got to be able to control your ethnic group, your gang. So guys like Walid Jumblatt, the chieftan of the Druze, go psycho when they see rival Druze politicos deserting to Hezbollah. Jumblatt's business is using his people as a bargaining chip; if they're going to start shopping around for better deals, he's as doomed as a smalltown hardware store watching the new WalMart go up. Don't start thinking these godfathers are the good guys. You can think of Hezbollah as the bad guys if you want, even though I admire the hell out of them, but just don't think those old-school godfathers are the good guys here. Jumblatt, for example, is on record saying he cheers when US troops are killed in Iraq and it can't happen often enough for him. He backed the Syrians when they occupied Lebanon, then broke with them over his cut; he massacred thousands of Christian villagers in Central Lebanon in the 1980s. When he comes into a room you can hear blood sloshing around his ankles, and that goes for every big player in Lebanon. They're a lot like the old Italian mafia, in fact: they've still got the big government connections, but they don't have control over the streets any more. But Hezbollah does, for two familiar reasons, the same ones traditional military types don't like to mention: demographics and civilian aid. Demographics first: like I've said before, the Shia suddenly found themselves as the only ghetto boyz in a rich, spoiled neighborhood. While all the other "Cedar Revolution" (aka "Crock of Shit") Lebanese were partying on the "fashionable" beach, the Shia were living in slums, pumping out lots of kids, hearing about martyrdom and finding out up close and personal what it feels like to get shelled, bombed and sniped. They raised a whole lot of kids who were natural soldier material, with your classic Shia martyr complex and a don't-give-a-fuck slum attitude that was straight outta Karbala. All they needed was a movement they could actually believe in, and they'd slice through the rich-boy gangs like a scimitar through hummus. Hezbollah provided the Shia with the cause they were looking for. You can say what you want about the Hezzies, but unlike most other Lebanese movements, including Amal, the other big Shia party, Hezbollah is NOT in it just for the money. They actually believe the stuff they say, and they prove it by getting their hands dirty rebuilding blasted slum neighborhoods, handing out food to the hungry, and trying to bring water and electricity t Shia dumps that never had them before. That kind of actual concern for the poor is just about unheard-of in these places, and it inspires fanatical loyalty when people see it happening for the first time in their lives. Sadr's people are the only ones who manage to get food, water and electricity to the huge stinking Shia slums in Iraq, and Hezbollah has an even longer record of putting in the money and time, like Mao said a guerrilla army should, on civilian projects. So for example, after the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah campaign, there was a lot of grumbling, even among Shiites in Lebanon, that Hezbollah's glorious fight against the Israelis had left a lot of ordinary Lebanese with bombed-out houses as souvenirs of that divine victory. Instead of dealing with these subversive complainers the usual Arab way--making a gross, gory example of the loudest naysayers and continuing to pocket all that Iranian aid money--Hezbollah actually went out and rented the heavy equipment, cleared the rubble, and put up new apartments. An Amal Shia militiaman poses alone with a mask: No match for the Hezzies! So it's not that much of an oversimplification to say that Hezbollah built a movement and an army from the bottom up, and then took it into battle last week against a bunch of traditional top-down gangs whose "gunmen" were in it on...
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