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| 5/24 |
| 2008/4/15-23 [Computer/Companies/Google] UID:49755 Activity:high |
4/15 Anyone got any random investment tips? I am kinda at a loss of what to do.
Agriculture and energy are at record highs...
\_ stockhouse.ca .. NOT - via NOSOF ... assay results coming in soon
\_ I'm liking HRP, currently paying 12.2% dividend; there's some
risk, but they shouldn't be as exposed to some of the macro
issues as a lot of stocks. Ex-div is coming up next week.
LNUX is a nice speculative play, low risk, sell on spikes.
If your time horizon is long, I very much like GOOG at these
levels. -tom
\_ GOOG is as safe as Bear Sterns.
\_ No way man! GOOG will double every 3 years. There is no
way anyone else can enter the search engine and online
advertising space and wait until you see what sooper
dooper projects GOOG's army of PhDs, after slaving away
for years in secrecy, are about to bring to market.
\_ Revenues up 42%, earnings up 31%, $1.31 billion in profit
for the quarter. $12 billion in cash and equivalents, zero
debt. Nice analysis, chump. -tom
\_ You forgot religious fanaticism among a devoted group
of tools.
\_ To put that another way, Google has a strong brand.
That's part of why I bought Apple when I did (now a
16-bagger). GOOG up 85 points today, 12%. Glad I
doubled my position a couple weeks ago. -tom
\_ that's nice. go drink some coolaid.
\_ I'll be able to afford some, with all the money
I've made on GOOG and AAPL. How's that GOOG
short at 100 going? -tom
\_ I shorted at 680, and kind of panic'ed when
it was in the mid 700 range but dumped it
at around 490. So actually, I did well. I'm
waiting for it to go back up over and
over again. Love GOOG. -short guy
\_ Should I still wait for it to drop
back under $100? -short GOOG $100 guy
\_ I think you're a fool for owning GOOG and
AAPL right now, personally. Are you
cherry-picking your returns to show us
your best picks and ignoring your poor
picks? I mean, with a 16-bagger you should
probably be retired by now. I think most
of us (CS geeks) owned AAPL at some point,
but not many bought and stayed in over the
last 12 years. I first bought AAPL in 1996
when I got my first real job, but so what?
AAPL had some really crappy times in there
where it almost went under completely. What's
most important is valuation, and I see GOOG
and AAPL as really overvalued right now.
\_ http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=GOOG&m=2010-01-15
If tom's a fool for owning GOOG, then tons
of people out there are fools for wanting
to buy 1 GOOG option for over $100
(look at $550).
\_ Sure, there are tons of people who
are fools for buying into the brand
that is GOOG.
\_ You can go look at the wall logs from
the past 10 years if you really want to
see all my positions; I generally
announce when I buy or sell something.
I have taken profits on much of my original
AAPL holding, but it has split several
times and I still hold shares. My point
in bringing up AAPL was not to tout my
portfolio, my point was that even when
Apple was having difficult times, I believed
that its strong brand would allow it to
survive. Apple and Google are two of
the strongest brands in technology today.
I probably wouldn't buy Apple at its
current valuation, but I don't sell good
companies just because the stock went up.
\_ If you wouldn't buy it then why hold it?
\_ Because I have a long time horizon,
and selling a winner is both costly
and generally ill-advised. -tom
\_ Selling something you think is
overvalued is ill-advised only
on Planet Holub. That $10
commission to trade out of it
gonna screw your returns?
\_ You might want to Google
"capital gains tax." -tom
\_ You're going to pay
it when you sell anyway.
\_ There are lots of
scenarios where you don't
wind up paying capital
gains tax. And money
spent now is more
expensive than money
spent later. -tom
\_ Losing your principle
on an overvalued stock
seems like a silly
way to avoid tax.
Effective, though.
Maybe you'll even
have a cap loss to
deduct.
\_ What is your point?
That I should always
move all my money
into the one stock
that I consider
the best value at
a given moment? I
think Apple is a
fine company to own
and I am relatively
confident that I
will meet my
standard investment
goal (a double
within 5 years)
from its current
level. Furthermore,
trying to time
the market is not
my investment
strategy. -tom
\_ It's not about
timing the
market. It's
about holding a
stock you feel is
overvalued. Why
would you do
that if there are
better values?
Diversification
isn't an excuse
for fanatical
AAPL worship.
I strenuously disagree that Google is
overvalued right now. Its trailing PE
is just 40 (YHOO is 60) and its forward
PE is well below 30, even if you take
conservative earnings assumptions. What
makes you think GOOG is overvalued? Recall
that short-GOOG-at-100-guy thought it was
overvalued at 100 because its PE was higher
than YHOO. Clearly, GOOG's buisness and
\_ Not PE. Market cap. Right now GOOG's
is $170B. YHOO's is $38B. You think
that's justified? No one is saying
GOOG or AAPL are bad companies. They
just aren't good buys.
\_ What do you think GOOG's market cap
should be, and why? What do you
think should determine a company's
market cap? -tom
\_ Earnings is the obvious answer, but
it's not so simple. BofA made
5X what GOOG did in earnings
1Q of 2007 and wasn't valued 5X
as much. I don't know what either
YHOO or GOOG *should* be
priced at, but I know they
should be comparable and it
was reasonable to assume so
especially when GOOG went IPO.
Since then GOOG has had more
success than YHOO and so
should probably be worth more,
but 4.5X more? You can make the
argument that YHOO is undervalued
if you wish, but these two
companies should trend close
to each other.
\_ Why should GOOG and YHOO have
comparable market cap? GOOG
had $5 billion in profits in
2007, up 70% over 2006. YHOO
had $700 million in profits,
down 35% over 2006. GOOG
is actually priced at a
discount to YHOO based on
earnings, and GOOG's earnings
are increasing while YHOO's
are falling. There is no
earthly way those two companies
should be comparable in market
cap. BofA made lots of money
but their earnings are also
declining and they are at
serious risk due to the
subprime crisis. If BofA
were growing earnings by 30%
and revenues by 40% year over
year the stock would be
much higher. -tom
\_ Do you really believe GOOG
is going to grow earnings
30% per year? Try looking at
absolute numbers instead of
percentages. GOOG's profit
was nil until recently
so I guess it increased
infinity since then.
GOOG and YHOO need to be
compared because they
are in the same space
just like Exxon needs to
be compared to BP. When
GOOG went IPO there was
no fundamental reason to
value it over $200. People
bought based on hype.
Now that GOOG has
actually turned a profit
it deserves more attention
but how much more do you
really think it can
grow? It's already
valued at 12th largest in
the USA with no real assets
and no real barrier to entry.
No one with any sense
would value the company
at these levels. MSFT
makes 4x as much money
as GOOG and is valued at
only 1.67X as much.
There's a lot of success
already priced into
GOOG's share price.
\_ Google was already
extremely profitable
when it went public.
People bought based
on the numbers, and
the numbers have made
Google one of the most
successful and profitable
companies in the world.
If you really think
Google should be valued
similarly to Yahoo
just because they're
both Internet companies,
you're not worth wasting
any more time on. -tom
\_ What about comparing
GOOG to MSFT in
terms of market
share and profit?
Do you think the
MSFT:GOOG ratio
undervalues MSFT
or overvalues
GOOG? BTW, it's
not that YHOO and GOOG
are both "Internet
companies". It's that
they compete in the
same space. I agree
GOOG is executing
better and should be
valued higher, but
do you think think GOOG
is worth 4.5X YHOO?
\_ Google is earning
six times more than
Yahoo; why shouldn't
it be worth six
times more? GOOG
clearly must be
compared to MSFT
but the comparison
is complex; MSFT
has a dominant
position, but in
technologies which
are losing value.
They have a huge
amount of money but
will be seriously
challenged to move
their business to
something that's
relevant in the
long term.
Here's a graph that
has some analogy to
the GOOG/MSFT
situation today:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=my&s=IBM&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=MSFT
-tom
\_ Update: Yahoo just
reported $150m in
earnings; so Google
is actually earning
almost 9 times as
much as Yahoo.
And GOOG's earnings
are rising while
YHOO's are flat.
-tom
\_ Flash back
to 2005. YHOO
earned $1.9B.
GOOG earned
$1.47B. YHOO had
a market cap of
$47B. GOOG had a
market cap of
$51B. Did that
make much sense?
So that is why
GOOG shouldn't be
worth 6 times
more: It's
not how the
market works.
Otherwise MSFT
would be worth a
lot more relative
to GOOG. GOOG
makes 99% of
its revenue
from advertising.
Think about that.
\_ Yes, it did
make sense
for GOOG to
be worth more
than YHOO,
because GOOG
was growing
faster in
2005. The
market will
anticipate
value; and
the market
in this case
was clearly
correct. I'm
done here,
you're just
trolling. -tom
\_ I knew
you would
mention
20/20
hindsight.
The market
is
anticipating
GOOG to be
the biggest
company in
the nation
other than
Exxon.
Do you
think that's
realistic
for a
for an
company
that derives
all revenue
from ads?
growth justified that higher PE; I see no
reason to expect serious problems for
their business in the next couple of years.
Without serious problems, GOOG is still
cheap today (though not as cheap as it was
when I suggested it as a buy in this
thread.) -tom
\_ follow-up: Millward Brown Optimor rates
Google's brand as the most powerful
in the world, estimates its value at
$86 billion:
http://www.news.com/8301-10784_3-9924273-7.html
-tom
\_ GAGEX if it dips below 30, DO, NE, RIG, PE are all good
\_ Crop futures.
\_ Diversify. Especially overseas, if you have not done so already
as the dollar is very likely to fall further. I like EFA, EWG
and EWD. Some overseas income producing property would be nice,
if you can pull that off.
\_ God damnit. I was looking at POT yesterday and now it's up 7+%. -op |
| 5/24 |
|
| finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=GOOG&m=2010-01-15 All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. nor any of independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein. |
| finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=my&s=IBM&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=MSFT All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. nor any of independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein. |
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