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| 11/22 |
| 2008/3/4-7 [Science/Disaster, Science/GlobalWarming] UID:49338 Activity:low |
3/4 Peak oil?
http://preview.tinyurl.com/2nwllk (wsj)
\_ Why does the WSJ publish this liberal clap-trap? I believe in
abiotic oil, which never runs out.
\_ You'd think if abiotic oil (also known as "oil creationism")
were true the USA wouldn't of hit a peak in 1970 since we
pray so much in this country.
\_ Obviously, we don't have enough faith and must
pray harder. -GWB
\_ What science backs your belief of abiotic oil? Also, even if
true, the rate at which these abiotic processes replace oil
matters. If they are slower than we're pulling oil from the
ground then there's still a peak oil problem, yes?
\_ I am not mr. aboitic believer, but there is some science,
mostly from Russia, that supports a abiogenic theory for
the origin of petroleum. Wikipedia has a decent discussion:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenic_petroleum_origin
There was an article on this in SciAM or Discover a few
years back that dicussed the abiogenic theory.
I agree that if we deplete petroleum faster than these
processes can replace it, the peak oil problem remains.
\_ this guy's summary is basically taht 'more efficiant extraction
techniques will let us get more oil out of exhausted fields'. This
is the endgame of peak oil, and only delays the peak a little bit.
He's exaggerating how much the delay will be though. -ERic
\_ "Just make the next generation deal with it" is a pretty small
comfort, unless you are expecting The Rapture to bail humanity
out.
\_ He's saying the date is far enough out that other technologies
will replace oil by then anyway, thus the old line he quotes
about the stone age not ending from lack of stones. |
| 11/22 |
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| preview.tinyurl.com/2nwllk -> online.wsj.com/article/SB120459389654809159.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries MORE OPINION The World Has Plenty of Oil By NANSEN G SALERI March 4, 2008; Page A17 Many energy analysts view the ongoing waltz of crude prices with the mystical $100 mark -- notwithstanding the dollar's anemia -- as another sign of the beginning of the end for the oil era. t the furthest out, it will be a crisis in 2008 to 2012," declares Matthew Simmons, the most vocal voice among the "neo-peak-oil" club. Tempering this pessimism only slightly is the viewpoint gaining ground among many industry leaders, who argue that daily production by 2030 of 100 million barrels will be difficult. In fact, we are nowhere close to reaching a peak in global oil supplies. Chad Crowe Given a set of assumptions, forecasting the peak-oil-point -- defined as the onset of global production decline -- is a relatively trivial problem. The trivial becomes far more complex because the four factors -- resources in place (how many barrels initially underground), recovery efficiency (what percentage is ultimately recoverable), rate of consumption, and state of depletion at peak (how empty is the global tank when decline kicks in) -- are inherently uncertain. But approximately six to eight trillion barrels each for conventional and unconventional oil resources (shale oil, tar sands, extra heavy oil) represent probable figures -- inclusive of future discoveries. As a matter of context, the globe has consumed only one out of a grand total of 12 to 16 trillion barrels underground. The industry recovers an average of only one out of three barrels of conventional resources underground and considerably less for the unconventional. This benchmark, established over the past century, is poised to change upward. Modern science and unfolding technologies will, in all likelihood, double recovery efficiencies. Even a 10% gain in extraction efficiency on a global scale will unlock 12 to 16 trillion barrels of extra resources -- an additional 50-year supply at current consumption rates. The impact of modern oil extraction techniques is already evident across the globe. Abqaiq and Ghawar, two of the flagship oil fields of Saudi Arabia, are well on their way to recover at least two out of three barrels underground -- in the process raising recovery expectations for the remainder of the Kingdom's oil assets, which account for one quarter of world reserves. Are the lessons and successes of Ghawar transferable to the countless struggling fields around the world -- most conspicuously in Venezuela, Mexico, Iran or the former Soviet Union -- where irreversible declines in production are mistakenly accepted as the norm and in fact fuel the "neo-peak-oil" alarmism? Hundred-dollar oil will provide a clear incentive for reinvigorating fields and unlocking extra barrels through the use of new technologies. The consequences for emerging oil-rich regions such as Iraq can be far more rewarding. By 2040 the country's production and reserves might potentially rival those of Saudi Arabia. Paradoxically, high crude prices may temporarily mask the inefficiencies of others, which may still remain profitable despite continuing to use 1960-vintage production methods. But modernism will inevitably prevail: The national oil companies that hold over 90% of the earth's conventional oil endowment will be pressed to adopt new and better technologies. Current daily global consumption stands around 86 million barrels, with projected annual increases ranging from 0% to 2% depending on various economic outlooks. Thus average consumption levels ranging from 90 to 110 million barrels represent a reasonable bracket. Any economic slowdown -- as intimated by the recent tremors in the global equity markets -- will favor the lower end of this spectrum. This is not to suggest that global supply capacity will grow steadily unimpeded by bottlenecks -- manpower, access, resource nationalism, legacy issues, logistical constraints, etc. However, near-term obstacles do not determine the global supply ceiling at 2030 or 2050. Market forces, given the benefit of time and the burgeoning mobility of technology and innovation across borders, will tame transitional obstacles. This widely accepted tipping point -- 50% of ultimately recoverable resources consumed -- is largely a tribute to King Hubbert, a distinguished Shell geologist who predicted the peak oil point for the US lower 48 states. But modern extraction methods will undoubtedly stretch Hubbert's "50% assumption," which was based on Sputnik-era technologies. Even a modest shift -- to 55% of recoverable resources consumed -- will delay the onset by 20-25 years. Where do reasonable assumptions surrounding peak oil lead us? My view, subjective and imprecise, points to a period between 2045 and 2067 as the most likely outcome. Cambridge Energy Associates forecasts the global daily liquids production to rise to 115 million barrels by 2017 versus 86 million at present. Instead of a sharp peak per Hubbert's model, an undulating, multi-decade long plateau production era sets in -- ie, no sudden-death ending. A gradual transitioning on the global scale away from a fossil-based energy system may in fact happen during the 21st century. The root causes, however, will most likely have less to do with lack of supplies and far more with superior alternatives. The overused observation that "the Stone Age did not end due to a lack of stones" may in fact find its match. The solutions to global energy needs require an intelligent integration of environmental, geopolitical and technical perspectives each with its own subsets of complexity. On one of these -- the oil supply component -- the news is positive. Sufficient liquid crude supplies do exist to sustain production rates at or near 100 million barrels per day almost to the end of this century. The benefits of scientific advancement observable in the production of better mobile phones, TVs and life-extending pharmaceuticals will not, somehow, bypass the extraction of usable oil resources. To argue otherwise distracts from a focused debate on what the correct energy-policy priorities should be, both for the United States and the world community at large. Mr Saleri, president and CEO of Quantum Reservoir Impact in Houston, was formerly head of reservoir management for Saudi Aramco. |
| en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenic_petroleum_origin Wernerian appreciation of basalts at times saw them as solidified oils or bitumen. While these notions have been disabused, the basic notion that petroleum is associated with magmatism has persisted. Alberta, Canada and concluded that no "source rocks" could form the enormous volume of hydrocarbons (estimated today 17 trillions barrels), and that therefore the most plausible explanation is abiotic deep petroleum. and these hydrocarbons can migrate out of the mantle, into the crust until they escape to the surface or are trapped by impermeable strata, forming petroleum reservoirs. Abiogenic theories reject the supposition that certain molecules found within petroleum, known as "biomarkers," are indicative of the biological origin of petroleum. edit Primordial deposits Thomas Gold's work was focused on hydrocarbon deposits coming from a primordial origin. Meteorites are believed to suggest the major composition of material from which the Earth was formed. If a large amount of this material is still within the Earth, it could have been leaking upward for billions of years. The thermodynamic conditions within the mantle would allow many hydrocarbon molecules to be at equilibrium under high pressure and high temperature. Although molecules in these conditions may disassociate, resulting fragments would be reformed due to the pressure. An average equilibrium of various molecules would exist depending upon conditions and the carbon-hydrogen ratio of the material. edit Creation within the mantle Russian researchers performed the above calculations of thermodynamic equilibrium and concluded that hydrocarbon mixes would be created within the mantle. One reaction not involving silicates which can create hydrogen is: Ferrous oxide + Water -> Magnetite + hydrogen 3FeO + H_2O \rarr Fe_3O_4 + H_2 The above reaction operates best at low pressures. At pressures greater than 5 GPa almost no hydrogen is created. He proposed that petroleum could be formed at high temperatures and pressures from inorganic carbon in the form of carbon dioxide, hydrogen and/or methane. This mechanism is supported by several lines of evidence which are accepted by modern scientific literature. This involves synthesis of oil within the crust via catalysis by chemically reductive rocks. olivine and usually a percentage of Fe-Ti spinel minerals. Most olivines also contain high nickel concentrations (up to several percent) and may also contain chromite or chromium as a contaminant in olivine, providing the needed transition metals. However, serpentinite synthesis and spinel cracking reactions require hydrothermal alteration of pristine peridotite-dunite, which is a finite process intrinsically related to metamorphism, and further, requires significant addition of water. so water-based reactions are dependent upon the local conditions. Oil being created by this process in intracratonic regions is limited by the materials and temperature. Olivine, composed of Forsterite and Fayalite metamorphoses into serpentine, magnetite and silica by the following reactions, with silica from fayalite decomposition (reaction 1a) feeding into the forsterite reaction (1b). Reaction 1a: Fayalite + water -> Magnetite + aqueous silica + Hydrogen 3Fe_2SiO_4 + 2H_2O \rarr 2Fe_3O_4 + 3SiO_2 + 2H_2 Reaction 1b: Forsterite + aqueous silica -> Serpentinite 3Mg_2SiO_4 + SiO_2 + 4H_2O \rarr 2Mg_3Si_2O_5(OH_4) When this reaction occurs in the presence of dissolved carbon dioxide (carbonic acid) at temperatures above 500 C Reaction 2a takes place. However, reaction 2 is just as likely, and supported by the presence of abundant talc-carbonate schists and magnesite stringer veins in many serpentinised peridotites; edit Carbonate reduction Methane has been formed in laboratory conditions via carbonate reduction at pressures and temperatures similar to that in the upper mantle, but a large amount of water was provided to the reaction in excess of that which is typical in mantle lithology. Likely reactions include: Reaction 6a: Ferrous oxide + Calcium carbonate + Water -> Hematite + Methane + Calcium oxide 8FeO + CaCO_3 + 2H_2O \rarr 4Fe_2O_3 + CH_4 + CaO and Reaction 6b: Ferrous oxide + Calcium carbonate + Water -> Magnetite + Methane + Calcium oxide 12FeO + CaCO_3 + 2H_2O \rarr 4Fe_3O_4 + CH_4 + CaO Methane formation is favored under 1,200 C at 1 GPa. Methane production is most favored at 500 C and pressures <7 GPa; higher temperatures are expected to lead to carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide production through a reforming equilibrium with methane. biogeochemical cycle diagram The synthesis of ethane and ethylene has been done at 800 C, using electric discharges in laboratory experiments. This experiment was in a hot gas, rather than hot mantle fluids. hydrogenation proceeds from carbon dioxide and hydrogen. Artificial catalytic materials often use rare materials, but some catalysts use somewhat more common materials such as silicon dioxide, aluminum oxide, iron or nickel. Methane production is most common although more complex products such as ethane, propene, propane, and butane have also appeared. The high temperatures needed for direct reactions are reduced to lower temperatures when a catalyst is present. Natural formations where such reactions take place continuously would require conditions which avoid such problems. Spreading centers are a special case where new material is being added, so additional catalytic surfaces may (or may not) be created. This theory is different from biogenic oil in that the role of deep-dwelling microbes is a biological source for oil which is not of a sedimentary origin and is not sourced from surface carbon. Deep microbial life is only contaminant of primordial hydrocarbons. Deep biotic oil is considered to be formed as a byproduct of the life cycle of deep microbes. Shallow biotic oil is considered to be formed as a byproduct of the life cycles of shallow microbes. The 2nd Law of thermodynamics prohibits petroleum formation at low pressure and temperature. Petroleum is stable within earth's mantle at depths around 150-200 km. At low pressure levels (for instance sedimentary basins) may occur bacterial contamination that leave their fingerprints in oil. Proponents of abiogenic petroleum origin contend that deep microbial life is responsible for the biomarkers (see below) that are generally cited as evidence of biogenic origin. Geothermal hydrogen, not organic carbon, is the primary energy source for this methanogen-dominated microbial community. This is the first documented case of a microbial community completely dominated by Archaea. Deep microbial sources for petroleum and hydrocarbon chemicals within some sedimentary basins and within some crystalline rocks may explain some contradictory evidence as to the source of these oils. The abiogenic theory of oil sees the role of deep microbes as providing these biomarkers as contaminants of abiogenic petroleum accumulations, not as products of plant and plankton detritus which have been converted to petroleum via orthodox biogenic processes. Bacteria are considered to have "degraded" higher gravity oil to bitumens. Extrapolation of bacterial degradation to still higher gravity oils and finally to methane leads to the suggestion that all petroleum up to tar and most of the carbon in coal are derivatives of methane, which is progressively stripped of its hydrogen by bacteria and archaea. The resultant partial methane molecules, CH3, CH2, CH, may be called "an-hydrides". Anhydride Theory, a New Theory of Petroleum and Coal Generation, is offered by C Warren Hunt (1999). Due to the difficulty in culturing and sampling thermophilic bacteria little was known of their chemistry. As more is learned of bacterial chemistry, more biomarker chemicals can be attributed to bacterial sources. extremophile micro-organisms exist deep underground and some metabolize carbon, some of these biomarkers are so far only known from surface plants and remain the most reliable chemical evidence of biogenic genesis of petroleum. This evidence is consistent with the biogenic hypothesis, although it might be true that these hydrocarbons have merely been in... |