| WIKI | FAQ | Tech FAQ | |
 http://csua.com/feed/ | |
| ||||||
| 11/22 |
| 2008/1/6-10 [Science/GlobalWarming] UID:48896 Activity:low |
1/6 Where'd global warming go?
http://csua.org/u/keg
(Boston Globe)
\_ the plural of "anecdote" is not "data"
\_ That's right, it's "hockeystick"
\_ There was data presented. There is 4% more CO2 in the
atmosphere and yet the warmest year on record was 10 years
ago.
\_ Recall that the warmest year on record isn't 1997, it's 1936.
\_ NASA says the warmest year on record was 2005. What is your
source?
http://www.csua.org/u/keq
\_ That's nearly a year old. It was mid-year last year that
showed that the data had errors in it, and after fixing
the error, 1997 was not as hot as 1936. Here's NASA's
corrected data.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.D.txt
I got the years wrong, it was 1998 & 1934
\_ It is if you scale high enough.
\_ wait, you mean all that stuff about polar bears and some
bad weather and drought here and there isn't data? why do
you hate polar bears? back here in the real world, we just
entered the next solar cycle which is going to put all this
'the scientific debate is done', 'man-made global warming is
a fact and caused by co2' stuff to the test. i predict the
gw hypothesis will fail big time. in fact, it already has if
you check temps since 98 vs increasing co2 over that time and
previous eras when temps went up but co2 wasn't being made by
mankind at all. |
| 11/22 |
|
| csua.org/u/keg -> www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2008/01/06/br_r_r_where_did_global_warming_go/ Citing experts in the British government's Meteorological Office, the story announced that "the world is likely to experience the warmest year on record in 2007," surpassing the all-time high reached in 1998. But a funny thing happened on the way to the planetary hot flash: Much of the planet grew bitterly cold. In South America, for example, the start of winter last year was one of the coldest ever observed. Eugenio Hackbart, chief meteorologist of the MetSul Weather Center in Brazil, "a brutal cold wave brought record low temperatures, widespread frost, snow, and major energy disruption." Now all of these may be short-lived weather anomalies, mere blips in the path of the global climatic warming that Al Gore and a host of alarmists proclaim the deadliest threat we face. But what if the frigid conditions that have caused so much distress in recent months signal an impending era of global cooling? Oleg Sorokhtin, a fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences and senior scientist at Moscow's Shirshov Institute of Oceanography. say that earth has passed the peak of its warmer period, and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012." Sorokhtin dismisses the conventional global warming theory that greenhouse gases, especially human-emitted carbon dioxide, is causing the earth to grow hotter. Like a number of other scientists, he points to solar activity - sunspots and solar flares, which wax and wane over time - as having the greatest effect on climate. recent paper for the Danish National Space Center, physicists Henrik Svensmark and Eigil Friis-Christensen concur: "The sun . appears to be the main forcing agent in global climate change," they write. Given the number of worldwide cold events, it is no surprise that 2007 didn't turn out to be the warmest ever. In fact, 2007's global temperature was essentially the same as that in 2006 - and 2005, and 2004, and every year back to 2001. For nearly a decade now, there has been no global warming. Even though atmospheric carbon dioxide continues to accumulate - it's up about 4 percent since 1998 - the global mean temperature has remained flat. Yet so relentlessly has the alarmist scenario been hyped, and so disdainfully have dissenting views been dismissed, that millions of people assume Gore must be right when he insists: "The debate in the scientific community is over." strongly worded open letter pointing out that climate change is a well-known natural phenomenon, and that adapting to it is far more sensible than attempting to prevent it. reduction is likely to increase human suffering from future climate change rather than to decrease it." Climate science isn't a religion, and those who dispute its leading theory are not heretics. Much remains to be learned about how and why climate changes, and there is neither virtue nor wisdom in an emotional rush to counter global warming - especially if what's coming is a global Big Chill. us Your Name Your e-mail address (for return address purposes) E-mail address of recipients (separate multiple addresses with commas) Name and both e-mail fields are required. com does not share this information or keep it permanently, as it is for the sole purpose of sending this one time e-mail. |
| www.csua.org/u/keq -> earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=17553 GISS scientists estimated that the five warmest years on record were, in descending order, 2005, 1998, 2002, 2003, and 2006. Other climatology groups ordered the years somewhat differently due to different measuring techniques, especially in areas with sparse measurements, but they also considered these years to be the warmest. According to NASA GISS director James Hansen, 2007 is likely to see warmer temperatures than 2006 and could prove to be the warmest on record, thanks to an El Nio and continued emissions of greenhouse gases. The top image is a global map showing temperature anomalies during 2006, blue being the coolest and red being the warmest. Areas with cooler-than-average temperatures appear primarily in the northern Pacific Ocean and Southern Ocean, as well as the interior of Antarctica. The very warmest regions appear in the Arctic and the Antarctic Peninsula, which is consistent with climate predictions that global warming will occur more quickly and dramatically in high latitudes. The red colors that dominate the image reveal the overall warmth of 2006 compared to the long-term average. The graph below the image tracks mean global temperatures compared to the 1951 to 1980 mean. This graph shows two lines, the 5-year mean, indicated in red, and the annual mean, indicated in pink. By the early 1980s, temperatures surpassed those of the 1940s and, despite ups and downs from year to year, they continued rising beyond the year 2000. Days before NASA GISS announced 2006's warm temperatures, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a new assessment of climate change. A consensus document complied by more than 1,200 authors and reviewers representing 113 nations, predicts continued warming of 02 degrees Celsius per decade for the next few decades. Like the previous report, published in 2001, this assessment estimated how likely it was that "most of the warming" that occurred in the latter half of the 20th century resulted from increases in greenhouse gases from human activities. The 2001 report gave a probability of greater than 66 percent. The 2006 report gave a probability of greater than 90 percent. A special report in Nature described the current report as a turning point "not because of the figures themselves, which are largely in line with previous IPCC forecasts, but because the science behind them is now certain enough to make a serious response from policymakers almost inevitable." |
| data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.D.txt Contiguous 48 US Surface Air Temperature Anomaly ------------------------------------------------------ year Annual_Mean 5-year_Mean --------------------------------- 1880 -.26 * 1881 .29 * 1882 .07 -.24 1883 -.68 -.30 1884 -.63 -.41 1885 -.54 -.46 1886 -.28 -.39 1887 -.17 -.21 1888 -.32 -.06 1889 .28 -.04 1890 .20 -.11 1891 -.20 -.19 1892 -.51 -.21 1893 -.72 -.38 1894 .17 -.30 1895 -.66 -.22 1896 .19 -.10 1897 -.08 -.22 1898 -.15 .03 1899 -.41 .00 1900 .57 -.01 1901 .05 -.11 1902 -.13 -.13 1903 -.65 -.34 1904 -.48 -.35 1905 -.47 -.37 1906 -.02 -.21 1907 -.24 -.17 1908 .14 -.02 1909 -.27 .02 1910 .28 -.11 1911 .17 -.15 1912 -.88 -.08 1913 -.03 -.16 1914 .09 -.29 1915 -.15 -.33 1916 -.50 -.31 1917 -1.06 -.35 1918 .06 -.40 1919 -.10 -.07 1920 -.41 .17 1921 115 .15 1922 .18 .02 1923 -.07 .17 1924 -.74 -.05 1925 .36 -.05 1926 .04 -.02 1927 .15 .01 1928 .07 -.03 1929 -.58 .18 1930 .16 .15 1931 108 .27 1932 .00 .63 1933 .68 .61 1934 125 .44 1935 .04 .41 1936 .21 .45 1937 -.13 .37 1938 .86 .36 1939 .85 .45 1940 .03 .49 1941 .61 .35 1942 .09 .21 1943 .17 .19 1944 .14 .22 1945 -.03 .22 1946 .72 .17 1947 .10 .18 1948 -.08 .13 1949 .20 -.10 1950 -.28 -.05 1951 -.42 .14 1952 .32 .27 1953 .90 .32 1954 .85 .47 1955 -.03 .43 1956 .29 .26 1957 .14 .13 1958 .06 .08 1959 .17 .02 1960 -.24 -.01 1961 -.02 .02 1962 -.02 -.03 1963 .19 -.01 1964 -.07 -.05 1965 -.11 -.07 1966 -.24 -.16 1967 -.10 -.19 1968 -.28 -.19 1969 -.23 -.16 1970 -.11 -.21 1971 -.10 -.11 1972 -.35 -.03 1973 .24 -.05 1974 .15 -.08 1975 -.20 .06 1976 -.25 -.09 1977 .37 -.24 1978 -.52 -.16 1979 -.60 .02 1980 .22 -.12 1981 .64 -.02 1982 -.36 .10 1983 -.01 -.03 1984 .00 -.01 1985 -.42 .22 1986 .73 .29 1987 .83 .25 1988 .32 .51 1989 -.19 .50 1990 .87 .40 1991 .69 .25 1992 .30 .38 1993 -.44 .27 1994 .46 .10 1995 .34 .05 1996 -.17 .38 1997 .03 .47 1998 123 .51 1999 .93 .69 2000 .52 .79 2001 .76 .65 2002 .53 .55 2003 .50 .58 2004 .44 .66 2005 .69 * 2006 113 * --------------------------------- |