Berkeley CSUA MOTD:Entry 48231
Berkeley CSUA MOTD
2019/01/20 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular

2007/10/3-5 [Science/Space] UID:48231 Activity:high
10/3    "CIBC Economist: $100 Oil by End of '08"
        \_ So soon?   Hey peak oilers, how high do you think it would go before
           the market disintegrates?   OIL's already shown its price/demand
           curve to be really inelastic.
        \_ I suspect fresh water will be a bigger concern over the next few
           decades than oil prices.
           \_ Why? We can do desalination and purify all the water we want
              as long as we have the energy to do so. So it goes back to
              oil again, unless we use nukular.
              \_ and you would discharge the concentrated brine to... sea water
                 and destroy the habitate.  nice.
              \_ Desalination is not as quick or efficient a process as you
                 seem to believe.
                 \_ Why does it have to be either to be effective? (same
                    with filtration) It just has to work.
                    \_ Because it works so slowly compared to our needs that
                       it isn't practicle.  Israel has the best desalination
                       tech on the planet and most of the country is still
                       sand and scrub where they raise low-water plants.
                       \_ Just build enough plants to make it practical.
                          \_ That's just it.  Wars over water are easier
                             and quicker than long term, extreme investments
                             in water infrastructure.
           \_ No.   Fresh water is already cheap to produce for any coastal
              nation.  The situation is not remotely compatible to oil.
                -- ilyas
              \_ See above.
           \_ I'm making a killing on oil futures -- peak oiler
2019/01/20 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular

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AP CIBC Economist: $100 Oil by End of '08 Tuesday October 2, 4:29 pm ET By Adam Schreck, AP Business Writer Expert: Oil Prices Set to Hit $100 by End of '08, and Will Likely Stay at Triple-Digit Level NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices could top $100 a barrel by the end of next year and remain above that point for years to come, the chief economist of Canadian investment bank CIBC World Markets said Tuesday. Jeffrey Rubin said rising demand within oil-rich nations such as Mexico, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia will put pressure on global oil prices in the coming years. That, combined with the increased cost of pulling petroleum from reserves deep under the sea or wringing it out of oil sands in Canada, will keep oil prices high even if demand in the Western world remains constant. "We're in a world of triple digit oil prices for the foreseeable future," Rubin said during a speech to investors here. Rubin said oil exports from OPEC countries, Russia and Mexico will likely decline by about 3 million barrels per day over the next five years. The biggest drop, he expects, will come from Mexico, a key US supplier. "Of the 3 million barrels, we're probably talking about 2 million barrels are going to come directly out of US supplies," he said. Rubin expects Mexican oil imports to the US will dry up by about 2012. Some of that decline will be made up by imports from other parts of the world, but the lions' share -- nearly a third of all US oil imports -- will come from Canadian oil sands, he predicted. But replacing relatively easy-to-refine liquid crude with petroleum from oil sands is certain to increase costs, he said. By the end of the decade, Canadian oil sands are likely to represent the world's largest source of new oil supplies, he said. "We're basically replacing low-cost oil with high-cost oil," he said. Looking ahead, Rubin expects crude oil prices to average as much as $90 a barrel next year, rising to around $100 by the end of 2008. "Triple digit oil prices is what is going to be required to maintain, let alone grow, world oil supplies." The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.