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| 2007/4/24-27 [Reference/RealEstate] UID:46434 Activity:kinda low |
4/24 The sign is here. Swami the Magnificent's prediction is
coming true. November 2007 will be the nadir of Real Estate:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18289082
\_ Swami was already wrong by at least a year on the peak, and
real estate prices haven't gone down an appreciable amount.
If they just start going up again in November 2007, Swami
will have been 100% wrong. -tom
\_ Do you mean "Unless" instead of "If"? His prediction that
the nadir is 11/07 would mean they would start rising in
12/07, right? I think prices still have a long way to fall
and will fall throughout 2008 as more and more neg ams cap
out and ARMs expire.
\_ His prediction was that the peak would be in 2005. If
prices just stop going up for a while, and then start
going up again, there was no peak at all. Personally, I
agree with you that we're likely to see prices flat or down
for a more extended time. -tom
\_ http://www.csua.org/u/ik1
"...other cities have exhibited persistent monthly declines
since last spring, such as San Francisco and Boston
yielding negative monthly returns since May of last year."
\_ You can't look month over month; housing prices are
seasonal. March numbers in California showed a
year-over-year rise of 3.2%; the Bay Area was up 5.6%.
Other places are down. Overall it's going sideways
in terms of price, on lower volume. -tom
\_ When do you think the peak was Tom?
\_ I think we've been on a plateau for the past 9 months or so.
It may eventually represent a peak, depending on what
happens in the next year. -tom |
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| www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18289082 WASHINGTON - Sales of existing homes plunged in March by the largest amount in nearly two decades, reflecting bad weather and increasing problems in the subprime mortgage market, a real estate trade group reported Tuesday. The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes fell by 84 percent in March, compared to February. The drop left sales in March at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 612 million units, the slowest pace since June 2003. The steep sales decline was accompanied by an eighth straight fall in median home prices, the longest such period of falling prices on record. The median price fell to $217,000, a drop of 03 percent from the price a year ago. The fall in sales in March was bigger than had been expected and it dashed hopes that housing was beginning to mount a recovery after last year's big slump. That slowdown occurred after five years in which sales of both existing and new homes had set records. David Lereah, chief economist at the Realtors, attributed the big drop in part to bad weather in February, which discouraged shoppers and meant that sales that closed in March would be lower. Existing home sales are counted when the sales are closed. Lereah said that the troubles in mortgage lending were also playing a significant part in depressing sales. Lenders have tightened standards with the rising delinquencies in mortgages especially in the subprime market, where borrowers with weak credit histories obtained their loans. Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, NY, said the dismal March performance reflected in part better sales in January and February, which were driven by warmer-than-normal temperatures in the previous months. "This looks awful but it is surely just a reversal of the favorable weather effects which boosted January and February sales," he said. There was weakness in every part of the country in March. They were down 91 percent in the West, 82 percent in the Northeast and 62 percent in the South. MSNBC special report: The Mortgage Mess "The negative impact of subprime is considerable," Lereah said. Lereah said he didn't expect a full recovery in housing until 2008. He predicted that sales of existing homes would drop by about 3 percent this year with the decline in sales of new homes an even steeper 15 percent. He said that the median price for homes sold in 2007 would fall by 1 percent to 3 percent, which would be the first price decline for an entire year on the Realtors' records, which go back four decades. The steep slump in housing over the past year has been a major factor slowing the overall economy. It has subtracted around 1 percentage point from growth since mid-2006. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. |
| www.csua.org/u/ik1 -> www.pr-inside.com/persistent-declining-returns-according-to-r103220.htm Refer this article Refer to a friend 2007-04-24 18:06:19 - NEW YORK, April 24 /PRNewswire/ -- February data released today by Standard & Poor's for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of US home prices in the United States, indicates the deceleration and declines in home prices are showing no signs of turnaround. com/cgi-bin/prnh/20070424/NYTU114 ) The chart above, depicting the annual returns of the composites, shows the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite down 15% and down 10%, respectively, from February of 2006. These annual declines are at rates not seen in almost 15 years, when the 10-city composite registered a decline of 16% in October 1993. Monthly declines also persist, with 17 out of the 20 cities down from January levels. "Home prices are exhibiting successive monthly declines," says Robert J Shiller, Chief Economist at MacroMarkets LLC. "The average consecutive negative monthly return of the 20 cities is 5 months, the 10-city composite is 8 months and the 20 city-composite is 7 months, indicating a widespread downward trend in home prices at the end of 2006 and into 2007. While some cities, like Miami, Charlotte and Dallas, alternate between modest monthly price gains and declines since this time last year, other cities have exhibited persistent monthly declines since last spring, such as San Francisco and Boston yielding negative monthly returns since May of last year. Seattle and Portland, while still showing diminishing annual returns, showed price increases of 05% and 01% in February, respectively. Dallas showed a monthly increase of 03% from January, and 13% from a year ago. The table below summarizes the results for February 2007. The S&P/Case- Shiller Home Price Indices are revised for the 24 prior months, based on the receipt of additional source data. They are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided. Each monthly index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite of 10 Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite of 20 Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 20 metro area indices. The S&P/Case-Shiller National US Home Price Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine US Census divisions and is calculated quarterly. thus, for example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the subject market. These indices are generated and published under agreements between Standard & Poor's, Fiserv and MacroMarkets LLC. MacroMarkets LLC possesses exclusive license and sublicensing rights to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for the purposes of developing, structuring and trading financial products. About Standard & Poor's Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies , is the world's foremost provider of financial market intelligence, including independent credit ratings, indices, risk evaluation, investment research and data. With approximately 8,500 employees, including wholly owned affiliates, located in 21 countries, Standard & Poor's is an essential part of the world's financial infrastructure and has played a leading role for more than 140 years in providing investors with the independent benchmarks they need to feel more confident about their investment and financial decisions. com Source: Standard & Poor's PRNewswire Disclaimer: If you have any questions regarding information in these press releases please contact the company added in the press release. |