Berkeley CSUA MOTD:Entry 46320
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2025/05/24 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
5/24    

2007/4/16-19 [Politics/Domestic/Crime, Reference/Military] UID:46320 Activity:nil
4/16    For emarkp: Extensive debunking of John Lott's "More Guns, Less Crime"
        http://timlambert.org/guns/lott
        \_ Hi troll!  Sign your name.  Oh, and just by chance, have you looked
           for any response to Lambert, and weighed it against the paper?  Or
           did you just pick the first reference that fit your agenda? -emarkp
           \_ Maybe we should do what Lott did, which was to create multiple
              accounts in online forums to invent people to support his
              ridiculous position.  -tom
              \_ More on Lott:
                 "In his published research analysis, John Lott has
                 claimed that a 1997 survey he conducted found that
                 concealed handguns deterred crime without being fired
                 an astoundingly high 98% of the time. That claim
                 allowed Lott to explain away the fact that extremely
                 few self-defense uses of handguns are ever
                 reported. But when scholars began questioning his
                 survey results, Lott began a series of evasions that
                 culminated in the claim that his computer had crashed
                 and he had "lost" all the data. The University of
                 Chicago, where Lott claims he conducted the study,
                 has no record of it being conducted so Lott began
                 claiming that he funded it himself (and kept no
                 records) and that he used students to make the survey
                 calls (though no students have been identified who
                 participated). Indeed, no records of the survey exist
                 at all. Lott is now facing serious questions about
                 whether he fabricated the entire survey - raising
                 serious questions about his ethics and credibility."
                 http://www.bradycampaign.org/facts/issues/?page=lott
                 \_ Wow, so a political group which opposes gun ownership
                    disagrees?  Stunning. -emarkp
                    \_ So essentially, any document or study which doesn't
                       support your position, or comes from a group which
                       doesn't support your position, is inherently
                       fraudulent?  Your job as a scientist in the Bush
                       Administration is secure!
                       \_ Sigh. No, I'm not arguing that. My point is that
                          rather than simply quoting mindlessly from the
                          proponent and critics is to read them both or search
                          for a third party.  For instance, the National
                          Acadamy of Science looked into the issue, and while
                          they say they can't support the conlusion that "more
                          guns = less crime" they *can* conclude that "more
                          guns != more crime". Since I've never read the book,
                          nor was I claiming it was correct, I really don't
                          care much, except the "debunking" cited above is from
                          a "lecturer" of CS (particular graphics--and his Java
                          applet has bugs) whereas Lott has more experience
                          with statistics.  Michelle Malkin has criticized Lott
                          as well, even though she agrees with him
                          ideologically. -emarkp
                          \_ Does that equal sign mean 'logical implication,'
                             'algebraic equality' or is it the equal sign they
                             use in structural equation models? -- ilyas
2025/05/24 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
5/24    

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Cache (250 bytes)
timlambert.org/guns/lott -> timlambert.org/guns/lott/
There are three parts to this argument: 1 that there were more guns 2 that there was less crime 3 that more guns caused less crime Lott's argument depends on all three parts being true. If any one of the parts is incorrect, the entire argument fails.
Cache (5554 bytes)
www.bradycampaign.org/facts/issues/?page=lott
Special Reports CONCEALED HANDGUN FRAUD: EXPOSING JOHN LOTT The NRA has long used John Lott's work, "More Guns, Less Crime" to push for enactment of concealed handgun laws (CCW) that force police to let almost anyone carry a concealed handgun in public. But as more scholarly researchers examine Lott's work, serious questions about Lott's findings, and even his personal credibility, are emerging. Exhaustive New Study Directly Refutes Lott's "Research" Professor John Donohue of Stanford has recently completed an exhaustive new study that examined crime data across the country - updating the research that John Lott claimed showed concealed handgun laws reduce crime. Professor Donohue's study, published by the Brookings Institute, directly refutes Lott's findings and demonstrates that the concealed handgun laws (CCW) pushed by Lott and the NRA most likely caused more crime rather than the reduction in crime claimed by Lott. While John Lott's study covered only a short period of time, during which urban crime was already rising, Professor Donohue studied the longer impact of CCW laws. Professor Donohue joins a long list of respected scholars who have debunked Lott's study as flawed and misleading. pdf Lott Co-Author Admits to Gaping Flaws in Study Professor David Mustard, the co-author of Lott's study, has conceded that there were serious flaws in their study - flaws that seriously undermine the conclusions. Mustard was deposed under oath in the Ohio concealed handgun case Klein v Leis. Mustard admitted that: 1) the study "omitted variables" which could explain that changes in the crime rate are due to reasons other than changes in CCW laws, and 2) the study did not account for many of the major factors that Mustard believes affect crime including crack cocaine, wealth, drugs and alcohol use, and police practices such as community policing. These serious flaws completely undermine Lott's findings. Lott Claims Computer Ate His Controversial CCW Survey In his published research analysis, John Lott has claimed that a 1997 survey he conducted found that concealed handguns deterred crime without being fired an astoundingly high 98% of the time. That claim allowed Lott to explain away the fact that extremely few self-defense uses of handguns are ever reported. But when scholars began questioning his survey results, Lott began a series of evasions that culminated in the claim that his computer had crashed and he had "lost" all the data. The University of Chicago, where Lott claims he conducted the study, has no record of it being conducted so Lott began claiming that he funded it himself (and kept no records) and that he used students to make the survey calls (though no students have been identified who participated). Lott is now facing serious questions about whether he fabricated the entire survey - raising serious questions about his ethics and credibility. html Lott Caught Posing as a Student to Praise Himself and His Work Lott has recently confessed that to counter growing skepticism from researchers examining his data, he repeatedly posed as a fictitious former student of himself named "Mary Rosh" to praise and defend himself in online forums and debates with researchers. Lott has been doing this since 1999 but was caught when an internet sleuth was curious about "Mary's" extreme defense of Lott and traced the "Mary Rosh" identity back to John Lott's own computer. It was very interesting reading and Lott writes very well. He explains things in an understandable commonsense way. I have loaned out my copy a dozen times and while it may have taken some effort to get people started on the book, once they read it no one was disappointed. If you want an emotional book, this is not the book for you. book that will explain the facts in a straightforward and clear way, this is the book to get. This is by far the largest most comprehensive study on crime, let alone on gun control." Mary Rosh Experts Challenge Lott's Research Numerous experts have published peer-reviewed articles exposing flaws in Lott's research. Professors at John Hopkins School of Public Health, Harvard School of Public Health, University of Chicago, Georgetown, Emory, Carnegie-Mellon University, Northwestern, Stanford and Yale have written articles challenging Lott's research and conclusions. deserves failing marks for pressing policy makers to use his results despite the substantial questions that have been raised about his research. Lott's results do not provide credible evidence one way or the other." laws are increasing crime, rather than decreasing crime" said Professor John Donohue of Stanford who described Lott's work as "deeply flawed" and "misguided." While we have great respect for the nation's teachers, the inevitable consequence of Lott's proposal would be terrifying instances of lost or stolen guns circulating in our schools. Imagine a new "prank" in school, "lets steal the teacher's gun." Adding Minorities and Women to Police Causes Crime to Increase Lott claims that violent crime goes up when police departments increase diversity by adding women and African American men to the police force. Lott claims violent crime increases by seven percent for every one percent increase in African American police officers. Ironically, Lott believes crime goes down by seven percent if untrained private citizens, mostly white men, walk around with hidden handguns due to weak CCW laws. "allowing wealthy people to do what on first glance may seem like 'subverting' the legal system can be efficient."