europe.theoildrum.com/node/2448
StumbleUpon For whom is peak oil the most critical, the developed world of America, Europe and similar or the developing world of sub-Saharan Africa? Clearly the West's oil consumption, both absolute and per capita is far greater than Africa's but how will peak oil affect oil availability in the two areas and what will the impact be? I recently spent a week in Senegal, the most westerly African country. Here I'll share some observations from Senegal with comparisons made to the UK.
Senegal UK Population 12 million 60 million GDP per capita $1,800 $31,400 Annual oil consumption per capita 09 barrels 10 barrels Proportion of oil imported 100% 0% and rising Annual electricity generation per capita 192 kWh 6600 kWh Electricity generation fuel mix 76% oil, 13% hydro, 11% comb. There are certainly more smiles on the street in Dakar than in London. This does raise the question of whether conventional economic metrics tell the whole story, clearly they don't but in absence of any standard "wellbeing" or "happiness" index they are all we have. Oil consumption is extremely low at 09 barrels per capita per year. Not only is the absolute usage significantly less but also the distribution of usage is different. Oil is almost exclusively used for transport in the UK, there being little alternative, most other potential uses of oil have been substituted. In Senegal 37% of the nation's oil supply is used in electricity generation which in turn represents approximately 76% of the nations electricity supply.
New York Times ran this story in October 2006: Senegal has increased the price of electricity by 15 percent, infuriating consumers already angry with President Abdoulaye Wade's government after months of chronic power cuts. Regular blackouts, lasting days in some areas, have disrupted the economy and fueled public anger against Mr Wade's government. The power cuts are largely due to problems purchasing increasingly expensive fuel to run oil-fired generating plants. Residents deprived of fans and refrigerators during the hottest part of the year, when daily temperatures rise above 90 degrees, were shocked by an unannounced price increase on their latest electricity bills. "I thought it was a mistake," said Tidiane Tairou, who runs a small hairdressing boutique equipped with two electric razors. "Sometimes they cut from morning to night, and at the end of the month you still get a bill even though you haven't been able to work." It is likely that it won't take very much of a price hike for other countries to out bid the Senegalese on the international crude market. The situation could arise where the price of oil doubles with relatively little impact in the West as such a small proportion of total income is actually spent on oil but with massive impact in Senegal. The UK alone will be importing many times Senegal's total imports of 30,000 barrels per day in just a few years time. Imports, at the expense of poorer countries, that could be avoided with relatively minor changes to UK usage. The lights could go out across large parts of Africa as a direct result of oil scarcity whilst the West continues to drive inefficient cars and frequently fly. Why does Senegal generate electricity from oil, a practice all but abandoned in the West?
it is clear that under the Government's existing fiscal policy, fuel oil cannot compete with other types of fossil fuel used to generate electricity. It is our view, therefore, that the scope for future fuel oil-fired generation is very limited, other than for use as a back-up fuel in plants which have the capability to burn more than one type of fuel. As we know, since then the price of oil has risen still further. Generating electricity from oil is an expensive business. For example a barrel of oil contains approximately 1,680 kWh (37MJ/L) and costs $60. Generating electricity at 40% efficiency results in a fuel cost of 9 cent per kWh. In reality it will be a little more as this does not include the refining costs to produce the fuel oil from the crude. The fuel component of generating costs may represent as much as 70% of the total cost suggesting a total cost of approximately 14 cent per kWh.
I expect oil is used due to the low capital costs and historically robust global market for oil. Gas is not as attractive as the gas market isn't robust and coal isn't attractive due to high up front capital costs. Coal and even renewables, could be cost competitive with oil if only suitable financing could be arranged. Having highlighted this vulnerability to oil supply here's one thing the Senegalese do exceptionally well. The cars especially the taxis were triumphs of repair with vehicles the West would have given up on perhaps a decade earlier still struggling on. Sure they were in bad shape, many with no electrics, mirrors, lights, handles, glass cracked, every body panel dented but they continued to work. The majority of the vehicles were Toyotas or French Peugeots or Renaults. Whilst driving through the country I passed through a few villages which seemed solely based around keeping the cars going, shops selling used car components lined the road and I spotted a horse drawn trailer carrying all the components of a dismantled engine. This degree of reuse and repair is unheard of in today's developed economies.
pdf available) The statistics reveal that around 60% of motor vehicles are at least 15 years old, however it possible that a significant proportion of the vehicles, especially those over 20 years old are no longer in circulation.
Conclusion The sorry truth of the situation is that poor countries with little or no fossil fuel resources of their own often rely on imported oil for electricity generation. If peak oil results in substantial and prolonged price hikes, demand destruction from these poor countries is the obvious result. However this won't only result in the reduced transportation services we typically associate with oil shortages but more critically will result in reduced electricity availability effecting communications, refrigeration, lighting etc. services that are perhaps more important than internal combustion engine transportation, especially in a country with only 002 cars per capita anyway. Here is a video I shot from the taxi driving through the centre of Dakar.
Our cattle and horses is the USA have better living conditions! CNN, Fox, Rosie O'Donnell,(haha had to throw in her, since so many sheeple watch her) etc. Mogadishu, Somalia, from the movie Black Hawk Down ring a bell here? The contrast of western civilization versus Dakar is 180 degree's from the west. Even some of the slums of Jersey and New York City as well as Los Angeles seem like sunny resorts compared to Dakar. I'll be the first to say, I have no idea where to even start to correct this gaggle. But it would be a slow process for the money to trickle into rebuilding the infrastructure and buildings. And since Peak oil is here and just getting started, I am afraid it might be too late for Dakar. I would imagine a revolt from the people to correct the corruption is all thats left. At least the French had the guts to stand up against the King and Queen on Bastille Day!
Mind, I've seen shanty towns on the Texan border that looked little better. Seriously, people live like this in parts of rural China, which is a fast progressing country. I would think the richest African nations have GDP/head of around $2k, and the poorest around $100.
I am just surprised when people think life in these places is like it is. In my experience, Islamic cities are a little better, due to a Koranic emphasis on personal hygiene, and the relative absence of alcohol.
It's described as one of the most stable democracies in Africa. The economy has seen real growth in GDP averaging over 5% during the last decade and inflation of just 2%. Military spending is less than 2% of GDP (which I'm counting as positively low). Perhaps the biggest concern going into a resource constrained world is demographics though.
Most noticeably in China, but also India, and apparently even Morocco (not sure about Tunisia and Algeria). Many countries are split between moslem and Christian...
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