Berkeley CSUA MOTD:Entry 45869
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2025/04/04 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
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2007/3/4-7 [Politics/Domestic/President/Clinton, Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:45869 Activity:moderate
3/4     60 Minutes: PSB > TOM (Medicare > Defense)
        http://tinyurl.com/yrtors
        \_ Synopsis: Clinton=surplus, Bush=deficit, Republican=bad.
                     We're fucked thanks to fiscal irresponsibility.
                     \_ A surplus co-oping Republican bills. Who started
                        the first surplus? Are you one of those "Politics
                        began with Clinton newbies who's been around
                        only the last 14 years" to answer that?
                        \_ Too bad Bush didn't come up with the same brilliant
                           strategy of co-opting Republican bills!  -tom
           Political slant: CBS, anti-Republican
           Fact check: this is a political smear.
           \- The earlier motd discussion was not very partisan or
              ideological. It was about 3 things:
           \- The earlier motd discussion was about 3 things:
              (0. distinguish between liabilities and payments)
              1. medicare liability >> SS liability
              2. non-discretionary entitlements >> defense liability
              3. holub ought not be dismissing other people's writings
                 when unaware of either the details of the accounting
                 used or the $numbers involved. While this backs up
                 my numbers, there was plenty of evidence provided
                 used or the $numbers involved. While this backs up some
                 of my numbers, there was plenty of evidence provided
                 earlier [particlarly the KC Fed study].
              BTW, I thought the tuition analogy was pretty good.
              The Comptroller General is a Clinton appointee, but is
              hardly a communist or a partisan hack.
           \- The earlier motd discussion was largely about
              a single statistic, the NPV value of medicare
              liability >> SS liability >> long range defense costs.
              (we didnt discuss debt service ... that highly depends
              on future fiscal policy rather than just actuarial
              numbers)
              It wasnt so much a partisan discussion or one very
              involved with interpretation. The CBO fellow, as
              well as the pointers I left present plenty of
              evidence for this. Holub shouldnt be dissing other
              people for being ignorant of facts when he's
              wrong about them. BTW, the Comptroller General
              is a Clinton appointee, but is hardly a
              communist or a partisan hack. BTW, I thought
              te tuition analogy was pretty good.
              \_ I think there are a number of flawed assumptions here,
                 a major one being that our health care system could be
                 completely different even by 2011, let alone by 2040.
                 Another is to describe military spending as discretionary
                 and Medicare as long-term liability; military spending
                 has alwyas grown faster than federal health care spending,
                 and fundamentally represents a liability due to current
                 military posture.   -tom
                 \_ Can you stop saying meaningless things like: "military
                    spending has alwyas grown faster than federal health
                    care spending".
                    \_ How is it meaningless?  It's verifiably true.  What is
                       meaningless is the distinction between Medicare as
                       a liability and the military as discretionary spending.
                       We can choose to change Medicare benefits at any time,
                       despite the prescription drug bill and other "promises."
                       And while we theoretically could decide to stop
                       spending gobs of money on the military, there's no
                       evidence that we will.   -tom
                 \_ By 2011, no, but 2040 is very far away.  Our current
                    system is very much not like it was 34 years ago.  In fact,
                    I'd say it's completely different.
                    \- forget 34 yrs. do you know how much the BUSHCO
                       prescription medicine benefit is considered to have
                       have added to liabilities. all the reasonable people
                       doing projections consder maybe 4-5 optimistic to
                       pessimistic projections. but some of the basic facts
                       are not in dispute in any scenario short of "the big
                       asteroid vaporizes half the country". BTW, it is fairly
                       "standard" to use 75yrs as the "infinite horizon"
                       projection number. i dont know why, but it is.
                       it's probably a case of "you have to agree to something
                       for consistency". i assume somebody has done the
                       sensitivity analysis around that number. --psb
                       [By "SA" i mean:
                       http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sensitivity_analysis]
2025/04/04 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
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