en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve. It also shows how to calculate the point of maximum production in advance based on discovery rates, production rates and cumulative production. Early in the curve (pre-peak), the production rate increases due to the discovery rate and the addition of infrastructure. Late in the curve (post-peak), production declines due to resource depletion. The Hubbert peak theory is based on the fundamental observation that the amount of oil under the ground is finite.
Marion King Hubbert, who created a method of modeling known oil reserves and production rates. Hubbert's theory was initially greeted with skepticism by many in the oil industry, but oil companies now routinely use Hubbert's methods to predict future yields of existing oil fields. Hubbert's peak can refer to the peaking of production of a particular area, which has now been observed for many fields and regions. "Peak Oil" as a proper noun, or Hubbert's peak applied more generally, refers to a singular event in history: the peak of the entire planet's oil production. After Peak Oil, according to the Hubbert Peak Theory, the rate of oil production on Earth will enter a terminal decline.
James Howard Kunstler believe that because of the high dependence of most modern industrial nations on inexpensive oil, the impending post-peak production decline and resulting severe price increases will herald grim implications for the future global economic outlook.
oil reserves are discovered, oil production at first increases approximately exponentially, as wells are drilled and more efficient facilities are installed. At some point, a peak output is reached, and oil production begins declining until it approximates an exponential decline. Furthermore, it is symmetrical, with the peak of production reached when half of the oil that will ultimately be produced has been. Given past oil production data, a Hubbert curve may be constructed that attempts to approximate past data, and used to provide estimates for future production. In particular, the date of peak oil production or the total amount of oil ultimately produced can be estimated that way.
Except for fissionable materials, any resource, including oil, is theoretically recoverable from the environment with the right technology. A genetically engineered organism that produces crude oil would not invalidate Hubbert's peak for oil. His research was about the "easy" oil, "easy" metal, etc. that can be recovered before a society considers greatly advanced mining efforts and how to time the necessity of such resource acquisition advancements or substitutions by knowing an "easy" resource's probable peak.
abiotic oil", a theory believed by virtually no notable US geologists, although it is believed by some Russian and Ukranian geologists. This theory states that some oil is created through other methods than conventionally understood biogenic processes.
Some estimates for the date of worldwide peak in oil production, made by Hubbert and others, have already passed. Estimates for the date of Peak Oil range from 2005 to dates after 2025.
Simmons & Company International, said on October 26, 2006 that global oil production may have peaked in December 2005, though cautions that further monitoring of production is required to determine if a peak has actually occurred.
Other countries have also passed their individual oil production peaks. World oil production growth trends, in the short term, have been decreasing over the last 18 months.
Increasing investment in harder to reach oil is a sign of oil companies' belief in the end of easy oil: "All the easy oil and gas in the world has pretty much been found," said William J Cummings, ExxonMobil's spokesman in Angola. "Now comes the harder work in finding and producing oil from more challenging environments and work areas."
In 2004, 30 billion barrels of oil were consumed worldwide, while only eight billion barrels of new oil reserves were discovered. New discoveries of huge, easily exploitable oil fields are most likely a thing of the past.
This means consumption is now within 2 Mbbl/d of production. At any one time there are about 54 days of stock in the OECD system plus 37 days in emergency stockpiles.
June 2005, OPEC admitted that they would 'struggle' to pump enough oil to meet pricing pressures for the fourth quarter of that year. The summer and winter of 2005 brought oil prices to a new high (not adjusted for inflation).
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, explaining peak oil and later warning: And then finally, and I think most important of all, more important than the deficit, more important then healthcare, more important than anything, is we have got to do something about our energy strategy because if we permit the climate to continue to warm at an unsustainable rate, and if we keep on doing what we're doing til we're out of oil and we haven't made the transition, then it's inconceivable to me that our children and grandchildren will be able to maintain the American way of life and that the world won't be much fuller of resource-based wars of all kinds.
Mitigation can reduce oil consumption so it is very important in calculating the timing and shape of a peak. In the chart of world oil consumption it can be seen that only mitigation efforts after 1973 and 1979 oil shocks lowered oil consumption. Most recessions since the 70s have had no effect on curbing the oil consumption shown in the graph.
Production from this source is around 1 million bbl/day as of 2006, and is expected to build up to 32 million bbl/day by 2015. Higher oil prices have overcome the high costs of extracting heavy oil from this source.
edit Energy return on energy investment When oil production first began in the mid-nineteenth century, the largest oil fields recovered fifty barrels of oil for every barrel used in the extraction, transportation and refining.
barrel of oil equivalent (BOE), which is a measure of energy. Many sources of energy, such as fission, solar, wind, and coal, are not subject to the same near-term supply restrictions that oil is. Accordingly, even an oil source with an EROEI of 05 can be usefully exploited if the energy required to produce that oil comes from a cheap and plentiful energy source.
They argue that as we approach or pass the peak of production, the price of oil will increase and alternatives will become more competitive. Following this, consumers will act to replace our need for non-petroleum energy resources. However, the main problem with this argument is that current US oil prices do not accurately reflect the full social costs of oil consumption. Currently, in the United States, federal and state taxes add up to about 40 cents per gallon of gasoline. A World Resources Institute analysis found that fuel-related costs not covered by drivers are at least twice that much. The current price of oil does not include the full cost of road maintenance, health and environmental costs attributed to air pollution, the financial risks of global warming from increasing carbon dioxide emissions or the threats to national security from importing oil. Because the price of oil is artificially low, significant private investment in alternative technologies that provide a long-term payback does not exist. Until oil and its alternatives compete in a fair market, new technologies will not thrive.
the federal government could more effectively increase the efficiency of the nation's automotive fleet by raising gasoline taxes, imposing user fees on the purchase of low-mileage-per-gallon vehicles, or both. Such policies might also spur more-productive research--because automakers would have a greater incentive not only to conduct research into fuel-cell technology but also to broaden their research efforts to include other potential sources of fuel efficiency, such as more-sophisticated drive trains and transmissions and lightweight but durable chassis and body materials.
Additionally, production cost reductions will not materialize in the absence of investments. Their magnitude and timing may affect the timing of future access to hydrocarbon resources. The scale o...
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