Berkeley CSUA MOTD:Entry 45318
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2025/05/23 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
5/23    

2006/11/10-11 [Politics/Domestic/California, Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:45318 Activity:moderate
11/9    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15643639/site/newsweek/page/3
        "Polls going into the election showed a dramatic shift to the
        Democrats, but the actual numbers were less dramatic... The national
        generic polls always exaggerate the Democratic advantage...
        You generally get an over representation of Democrats in the polls.
        If you averaged the pre-election polls, there was a 12-point
        Democratic advantage."
        Just as I said. Liberals are very vocal but they're too lazy
        to vote whereas Republicans don't express their views but tend
        to be loyal hardcore voters.
        \_ Loser say what?
        \_ No, I think it's a case of who is around to answer the phone at
           the times they call and who would actually bother to do so.  I
           don't think either party's voters are "lazy" about voting.  You
           might want to note that a number of conservative ballot measures
           around the country passed (or liberal ones failed) in a lot of
           the same places that voted out incumbent Republicans in favor of
           an unknown Democrat.  Conservatives showed up, they just didn't
           vote for the faux-conservative Republican candidates.
2025/05/23 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
5/23    

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Cache (2313 bytes)
www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15643639/site/newsweek/page/3
And if you consider the large margin of error in the exit polls, it's not too far from the national shift toward the Democrats. Black voters seemed to hold steady with a large proportion going to Democrats as they did in 2004. It was not a great year for the Republicans to expand their base. The Republican strategy of nominating conservative African Americans didn't work in the Pennsylvania and Ohio governor's races or in the Senate race in Maryland. Was immigration a decisive issue in any of the tight races? Interestingly, the two candidates from a border state who made immigration a central issue lost. It was a Republican district and wasn't a natural Democratic target. It does seem to indicate that that immigration is not a magic bullet for Republicans. Did contentious ballot initiatives like the ones banning gay marriage or involving stem-cell research increase turnout or sway voters? Only a small minority are really passionate enough about gay marriage to go out and vote based on that issue, so I don't think that made a big difference. Both parties are divided on that and the country is, too. I think it helped the Democrats in Missouri but I don't think it was a decisive, compared to the war and overall performance of the Republicans. Polls going into the election showed a dramatic shift to the Democrats, but the actual numbers were less dramatic. The national generic polls always exaggerate the Democratic advantage. If you average them out, going back to 1998, they always run about three or four points higher for the Democrats than the actual numbers. That's because Republicans usually turn out at higher rates, and you generally get an over representation of Democrats in the polls. If you averaged the pre-election polls, there was a 12-point Democratic advantage. Even if you knocked three or four points off those numbers, it was still good news for the Democrats. Subscribe to NEWSWEEK, and you could win a dream vacation. This election doesn't tell you much about 2008 because we don't know what the issues will be then. The Democratic takeover does raise the issue of whether they can hold on to the House next time. They'll have to win in some Republican seats that will be open and vulnerable. It will all depend on whether they are moderate and centrist or more liberal.