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| 5/25 |
| 2006/10/9-10 [Politics/Foreign/Asia/Korea, Politics/Foreign/Asia/China] UID:44730 Activity:high |
10/8 So was the October Surprise a N. Korean underground nuke test?
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/ustqab.php
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,218699,00.html
\_ Hey, seriously, I am a liberal and oppose our invasion of Iraq.
But in this case, i really think we need to think about use
military force against the N.Koreans. It will be a while before
they actually weaponize the nukes. Allowing them to have nukes
is dangerous just because they don't mind selling it to the highest
bidder! Further, we need to remove any excuse for Japan get its
nukes.
\_ If we use military action against North Korea, it'll be the
Korean War from 1950 - 1953 all over again, with the strong
possibility of China backing North Korea (as they did before
from 1950 - 1953). That would be World War III. But yeah,
other than those pesky details, your idea makes sense.
\_ Part of any pre-invasion plan will be an understanding
between the U.S. and China about N. Korean reconstruction.
\_ Uhm, no. History does repeat itself but the cliche doesn't
mean it like that. It's a comment on human nature not history
itself per se. Anyway, the Korean war was part of the whole
anti-communist containment/rollback strategy at the time. No
one would consider any such action without China's advanced
consent this time. Totally different situation. But if the
consent this time. Totally different situation. But if
China were willing to allow an invasion they're much more
likely first to simply cut off NK from food and oil if having
a nuke-fre NK is their goal. They could do so at anytime and
the fact that they haven't makes me believe they want NK to
have nukes.
\_ I don't think China wants NK to have nukes. To China,
there is always the risk of the North uniting with the
South. When it eventually happens, Korea most likely won't
be as "left" or as communist as it is today. I don't think
China likes to see a non-alley neighbor having nukes. This
downside is not worth the upside of a close alley having
nukes. The upside is not much anyway, given that China
itself already has nukes.
\_ NK is like the mad dog on the end of China's leash but
it is still China's dog. They have nukes because China
let them have nukes. With out Chinese oil and food aid
the place would completely collapse. The Chinese are
more concerned about millions of hungry NK heading to
their border than they are about NK nukes.
\_ "Mr. President, this is not the hour of our weakness. This
is the hour of our strength. If the Chinese cross the
Yalu, I will make of them the greatest slaughter in the
history of warfare. They have no means for giving ground
... air support to the ground troops. And they cannot do
it and I do not believe they will."
If only Truman had been smart enough to listen to MacArthur,
the NK issue would not exist today.
\_ In a way, you're absolutely right. If Truman had listened
to MacArthur, human civilization would not exist today.
By extension, neither would the NK issue.
\_ human civilization wouldn't exist? Oh please....
\_ Truman would have provoked nuclear war.
\_ Let's assume this is true. The US had how many
bombs? Dozens? A few hundred tops? China and
Russia had how many between them? And what
ability to deliver them outside their own borders?
What is much more likely is China either retreats
or they nuke back. If they retreat it's over. If
they nuke back, then Korea becomes a waste land,
a lot of people die, we may have nuked China back
directly in which case even more people die, then
China is forced to capitulate after their country
is a wasteland. So, worst case, China and Korea
are gone, best case, Korea/China border is nuked
out. Either way, "The Whole World Is Dead! OMG!
WTF! BBQ!" is not a serious proposition. Of
course this all sucks big time if you're Korean
or Chinese but that is not the same as "the end
of civilization".
\_ Heh. You remind me a lot of George C. Scott's
character in Dr. Strangelove. "Mr. President,
I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair
mussed! I'm saying two or three million dead
TOPS....err, depending on the breaks!"
\_ Whatever. The point remains. The world
would not have ended. The nukes were much
smaller, harder to deliver and fewer in
number. I'm not saying I'm in favor of
having nuked China at the time. I'm saying
the sky wouldn't have turned to blood or
rain frogs or everyone's first born male
child died in the night.
\_ Seconded. Bomb the crap out of them. --other lefty
\_ You're kidding, yes? This is the perfect time for sanctions
and other non-military arm twisting and you want to bomb?
Iraq was due for an invasion after years of failed sanctions
and many on the left wanted to simply end sanctions and walk
away because sanctions weren't hurting the right people....
I find the whole thing fascinating.
\_ Who are you who are so wise in the ways of geopolitics?
\_ Sanctioning NK won't hurt the right people either. You
think Kim Jong-Il will starve before all the civilians do?
\_ The people are already starving. Once the army is
starving things may change.
\_ if China impose a sanction, N.Korea probably will implode.
This is of course something YOU want, but it is not
something China nor South Korean wants. Why? just think
in terms of illegal immigration issue... except that
million of them going to try to get across the broder in
the period of weeks. Unless you are ready to allow
Chinese mow down those N.Korean refugees with machine gun
fire, and you have a plan for post-implode N.Korea, I
recommend you STFU.
\_ Yes, Karl Rove planted nuke tech in NK going back to the early
90s having forseen the need almost 15 years in advance for an
October Surprise in the 2006 mid term elections. The man is
the Devil!
\_ Just curious, the test was 10:36am local time (N and S Korea).
About when did news of the test go out on the wire actually?
\_ About an hour afterwards, based on Google News timestamps.
\_ world leaders will agree that n korea escalated unnecessarily.
Dubya and GOPers will talk tough and the intl media for once will
agree with this posture.
\_ Why would the international media matter? Anyway this isn't the
time to talk military strike. It is the time to squeeze them
dry of food, oil, and cash. |
| 5/25 |
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| earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/ustqab.php You can also view a map displaying accumulated data from your report and others. You can also view a map displaying accumulated data from your report and others. |
| www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,218699,00.html PRINTER FRIENDLY VERSION FNC * * * SEOUL, South Korea -- President Bush on Monday called North Korea's claim of a successful nuclear test "unacceptable" and a threat to global peace, and warned Kim Jong-Il's regime that the US would honor its commitments to protect its Asian allies "The United States will meet the full range of our deterrent and security commitments," Bush said in a statement read at the White House. The president said North Korea was "one of the world's leading proliferators" of weapons technology, including transfers to Iran and Syria. North Korean Statement on Alleged Nuke Test He also said the transfer of nuclear weapons or material would constitute "a grave threat to the United States, and we hold North Korea fully accountable for the consequences of such actions." Bush also charged that North Korea had defied the international community, "and the international community will respond," a reference to Monday morning's meeting of the United Nations Security Council. Bush said he had telephoned the leaders of South Korea, China, Russia and Japan, and all had reaffirmed a commitment to a nuclear-free Korean peninsula. South Korea The two leaders, who spoke by phone, called the reported test a grave threat to international security, the statement said. Bush, meanwhile, would not confirm that North Korea's test was of a nuclear weapon, repeating a statement made earlier by White House spokesman Tony Snow. The official said that initial readings from South Korea reported only a 358-magnitude seismic reaction, which is smaller than what would be expected from the 4-kiloton explosion the communist nation sought. To put the bomb's capabilities in context, a 20-kiloton explosion could conceivably kill 200,000 people. "North Korea may not have got what they wanted," the official said. The US Geological Survey, however, said it detected a 42-magnitude tremor at 10:35 pm EDT, which could mean the device was potentially deadlier than initially believed. Australia also said there was seismic confirmation that North Korea conducted a nuclear test. "It was a success from their perspective in that they achieved a nuclear yield, though that is not very difficult," the official said. US officials told FOX News' Bret Baier that they were warned by allies in advance of the test. China reportedly received a 20-minute heads up and immediately notified officials in the US, Japan and South Korea. The test is North Korea's first-ever detonation of an atomic device, but the nation as long claimed to have nuclear capabilities. South Korean Stocks Plunge After Reported North Korea Nuclear Test White House press secretary Tony Snow said that the White House is not officially confirming that there was a nuclear test. Snow said the US had spoken to the Chinese and had contact with the South Koreans. If they confirm that the seismic event was a nuclear test, John Bolton will call for an emergency session of the UN Security Council, Snow said. Bush administration officials say they will push for an "extremely strong UN resolution against North Korea that would make it illegal to transfer missile and missile-related items, materials, goods and technology for North Korean weapons of mass destruction programs." US officials say the White House will seek "much stronger punitive measures" on general trade with North Korea, although they do not believe the country's oil supplies will be targeted. The test sparked condemnation from regional powers who said that, if confirmed, would be a serious threat to regional stability. The North's official Korean Central News Agency said the underground test was performed successfully "with indigenous wisdom and technology 100 percent," and that no radiation leaked from that test site. "It marks a historic event as it greatly encouraged and pleased the (Korean People's Army) and people that have wished to have powerful self-reliant defense capability," KCNA said. "It will contribute to defending the peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in the area around it." Japan's top government spokesman said a reported North Korean test would post a serious threat to the stability in the region and a provocation. China, the North's closest ally, said Beijing "resolutely opposes" the North Korean nuclear test and hopes Pyongyang will return to disarmament talks. US and South Korean officials could not immediately confirm that an actual test had occurred. The UN Security Council was expected to discuss the reported North Korean test Monday, and the United States and Japan are likely to press for a resolution imposing additional sanctions on Pyongyang. The council last week issued a statement condemning plans for a test. A resolution adopted in July after a series of North Korean missile launches imposed limited sanctions on North Korea and demanded the country rejoin international nuclear talks -- a demand the North immediately rejected. Also, South Korea's Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon was expected later Monday to be nominated as the next secretary-general of the United Nations by the Security Council. Ban has said he would use the post, which he would assume after Kofi Annan's term expires at the end of the year, to press for a resolution of the North Korean nuclear standoff. The North has refused for a year to attend international talks aimed at persuading it to abandon its nuclear ambitions. The country pulled out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 2003 after US officials accused it of a secret nuclear program, allegedly violating an earlier nuclear pact between Washington and Pyongyang. The North is believed to have enough radioactive material for about a half-dozen bombs, using plutonium from its main nuclear reactor located at Yongbyon, north of the capital Pyongyang. The North also has active missile programs, but it isn't believed to have an atomic bomb design small and light enough to be mounted on a long-range rocket that could strike targets as far as the US If confirmed, the North would be the ninth country in the world known to have nuclear weapons. The other countries are the United States, Russia, France, China, Britain, India, Pakistan and Israel. South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun was holding an emergency meeting Monday of top security officials, and Seoul was consulting with allies on intelligence about the reported test, presidential spokesman Yoon Tae-young said. South Korea's Defense Ministry said the alert level of the military had been raised in response to the claimed nuclear test. The test came amid intense diplomatic efforts aimed at heading off the move. Japan's new prime minister, Abe, arrived Monday in Seoul for meetings with President Roh Moo-hyun that had been intended to address strains in relations between Japan and South Korea over territorial and historical disputes, but was overshadowed by news of the nuclear test. "We must collect and analyze information to determine whether North Korea actually conducted the test," Abe told reporters upon his arrival. On Sunday in Beijing, Abe and Chinese President Hu Jintao had pledged to work together to avert a North Korean test. |