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| 2006/9/19-10/13 [Reference/RealEstate] UID:44456 Activity:nil |
9/19 http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/19/news/economy/housingstarts Swami the fucking Housing Magnificent predicted this long time ago. Swami is great. \_ How many other times has Swami predicted this? \_ Swami only made one prediction, and so far it's been right on. \_ Swami predicted that housing prices would peak in Q3 2005, which did not happen. In fact, it's still not clear whether housing prices have peaked, and Q3 2006 starts Friday. Edit to add: He also predicted a nadir in November 2007, which is even stupider than his first prediction. Once this market cools off, it is likely to go down or sideways for several years at least. -tom \_ "Extended is deliberately left undefined because I have no idea how long it will go down. Even the Magnificent no idea how long it will go down. Even the fucking Magnificent Swami has his limits. Certainly more than two quaters." -The Magnificent Swami (in June 2005) \_ San Diego County went negative year-over-year June '06, with a negative trend starting Q4 '05. Swami would have been done much better to issue a prediction for the Bay Area or SoCal, instead of leaving it open to intepretation, but then again the guy calls prediction for the fucking Bay Area or SoCal, instead of leaving it open to intepretation, but then again the fucking guy calls himself "Swami" ... http://csua.org/u/gxr (latimes.com chart) FYI, you can also see a plateau between Q3 '04 through now for San Diego County. \_ I also hear that prices went down in Baghdad. If the best you can come up with is "well, in one If the fucking best you can come up with is "well, in one specific area, that Swami didn't mention, he was only wrong by 9 months," you really shouldn't waste your time. -tom \_ I'm not supporting Swami, but I guess that wasn't clear. I will, however, waste my time posting real data in addition to our obvious criticisms of Swami. \_ Swami was talking about month to month appreciation. And he was right -Swami http://www.realestateabc.com/outlook/westmedian.gif link:www.csua.org/u/gyk http://www.rereport.com/sf/charts/pvs_sfr.gif \_ My Swami-style prediction is: oil will go > $100/barrel \_ Ah, but Swami the magnificent said WHEN. What will Oil got \_ Ah, but Swami the fucking magnificent said WHEN. What will Oil got to 100$/barrel? \_ Oh, sorry, forgot that part. Like Swami, I will repeatedly change my prediction as it is wrong, so let's say: next year. |
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| money.cnn.com/2006/09/19/news/economy/housingstarts -> money.cnn.com/2006/09/19/news/economy/housingstarts/ FSB 100 Housing starts tumble Builders pull back on new projects, permits as latest reading shows real estate market even weaker than forecast. com) -- Home builders slammed on the brakes in August as starts on new homes sank to their lowest level in more than three years, and a drop in permits signaled more weakness ahead for the real estate market. Housing starts sank to an annual rate of 167 million last month from July's 177 million pace, the Census Bureau reported Tuesday. That marked a 6 percent decline from July and a nearly 20 percent drop from a year earlier. Play video Starts are at the lowest level since April 2003. It also marked the sixth time in the last seven months that starts have fallen from the previous month's level. com had forecast starts would drop to a 174 million rate. Building permits, which are seen as a reading of builders' confidence in the market, fell to a 172 million annual rate in August from a downwardly revised 176 million in July. Economists had forecast permits would slow to a 175 million pace in August. Charts), have been lowering guidance on home sales in recent weeks, reporting lower prices and excess supply of homes on the markets. Economists said that as weak as housing starts and permits were in August, it's likely they will both continue to fall in future months. "Until we see a recovery in housing permits, it is unlikely that we have seen the bottom," said Phillip Neuhart, an economist with Wachovia. The one piece of good news for the housing market from Tuesday's report is it suggests that the supply of new homes on the market could start to narrow, since builders are pulling back so sharply. The inventory of completed new homes on the market for sale hit a record high in July, according to a separate government report, and that glut of homes on the market has put downward pressure on all home prices. "Thank goodness the builders are cutting back on their additions to supply; it's an absolutely essential adjustment at this point," said David Seiders, chief economist with the builders' trade group. Seiders said his estimates are that the "normal" level of housing starts given current factors such as population growth and job creation suggest there should be about just under 19 million housing starts a year. The building boom of 2004 and 2005, topped with last year's record 207 million starts, has left the market with an oversupply that could take years to work through, he said. "2004 and 2005 were clearly excessive, far beyond potential, and that's come home to roost," Seiders said. "We probably won't see a bottoming until the middle of next year, but we could well be running below potential into 2008." Home building has become an important segment of the economy, and the weakness in building could put a crimp in hiring and economic activity for years to come. |
| csua.org/u/gxr -> www.latimes.com/business/la-091406-fi-homes-g,0,3802114.graphic Hitting a ceiling? |
| latimes.com -> www.latimes.com/ Private Rocket Nears Space By Peter Pae Craft designed by Burt Rutan goes where no private craft has gone before in bid for prize. US Military Lawyers Felt 'Shut Out' of Prison Policy By Ken Silverstein They said civilian political lawyers were deciding how prisoners could be questioned. Governor Opts to Put Off the Pain By Peter Nicholas ANALYSIS: Schwarzenegger's revised plan avoids deep cuts in spending and includes no new taxes. An Editor's Hollywood Ties Pay Off By Claudia Eller, Michael Cieply and Josh Getlin Vanity Fair's Graydon Carter strikes business deals with some people his magazine covers. Tough Outing for Nomo By Ben Bolch He gives up six runs and walks three in shortest outing of the season as Dodgers fall to Cubs, 7-3. US Military Lawyers Felt 'Shut Out' of Prison Policy By Ken Silverstein They said civilian political lawyers were deciding how prisoners could be questioned. Awed, one and all, deep below ground By Vani Rangachar A family visits Carlsbad Caverns National Park to witness what millions of years and sulfuric acid can do. Setting a Modern standard By Cara Mullio and Jennifer M Volland An architect of Case Study Houses, Edward Killingsworth used many of the same principles in his own home -- light, glass, an emphasis on indoor-outdoor living. |