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| 5/24 |
| 2006/9/1-4 [Politics/Foreign/MiddleEast/Iraq] UID:44234 Activity:nil |
9/1 http://csua.org/u/gtm (realtor.org) "We've never seen a general decline in the housing market against a healthy economic backdrop where jobs are being created, the economy is growing and interest rates are favorable ... Contributing to this hesitancy is a lot of negative news stories, but in the end we believe that underlying market fundamentals will prevail." - National Association of Realtors Chief Economist David Lereah \_ http://davidlereahwatch.blogspot.com I have no further comments. \_ This is just a bunch of quotes from D.L. archived by some random dude (as far as I can figure). What about it? \_ That guy is a hack. \_ Correction - "hack" doesn't really get it right. More like "That guy is a paid shill for the real estate industry." \_ there is a report that we are already in a recession! \_ There is no civil war, we're not losing the war in Iraq, and the economy is stronger than ever. -Republican |
| csua.org/u/gtm -> www.realtor.org//PublicAffairsWeb.nsf/Pages/PHSIJuly06?OpenDocument org Pending Home Sales Index Points To Easing Market WASHINGTON (September 1, 2006) - Home sales should be leveling out in the months ahead at a lower pace, according to an index based on pending home sales, a leading indicator for the housing market published by the National Association of Realtors. The index is derived from pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed and the transaction has not closed; pending sales typically are finalized within a month or two of signing. An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, the first year to be examined, and was the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales. David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said there's a closer relationship between annual changes in the index and actual market performance than there is with month-to-month comparisons. "In looking at year-to-year comparisons, the pending home sales index has been very close in predicting the actual pace of home sales," he said. "Based on recent changes from a year ago, the index shows existing-home sales should continue to ease after a stronger-than-expected decline in July, but are likely to flatten in the months ahead." Lereah said psychological factors account for much of the decline in July home sales. "We've never seen a general decline in the housing market against a healthy economic backdrop where jobs are being created, the economy in growing and interest rates are favorable," he said. "Psychological factors are causing some buyers to remain on the sidelines, waiting for prices to stabilize or for more favorable news about the market and the economy. Contributing to this hesitancy is a lot of negative news stories, but in the end we believe that underlying market fundamentals will prevail." The National Association of Realtors, "The Voice for Real Estate," is America's largest trade association, representing more than 13 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer parallel between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than there is with month-to-month comparisons. The forecast will be revised September 7, and existing-home sales for August will be released September 25. |
| davidlereahwatch.blogspot.com David Lereah Watch David Lereah is the Chief Economist and Senior VP of the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Mr Lereah regulary makes statements regarding the housing bubble. Mr Lereah tells half truths and manipulates facts and figures. Thursday, August 31, 2006 Potential Buyers on Sidelines David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said higher interest rates dampened sales but that price softening is good news for the housing market because it is drawing buyers. "Many potential home buyers have been on the sidelines, some kicking the tires,' but mostly waiting for sellers to compromise on prices and terms," he said. "Now sellers in many areas of the country are pricing to reflect current market realities. As a result, there could be some lift to home sales, but it'll likely take some months for price appreciation to rise." While reviewing David Lereah's power point presentations I found one titled 'Winding down to and Expansion' from October 2005 . Inversely, David Lereah has lost credibility because of his irresponsible cheerleading. "With more sellers competing for the pool of buyers, the pressure on home prices has evaporated in most metro areas," he said. "After a full year of double-digit gains in the national median price, the timing is right for a cooling in the rate of growth -- we are presently experiencing a soft landing in the housing sector." Whatever it is, it will be short-lived, because demand is right there on the sidelines," said David A Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors. Existing home sales fall 13% to 662 million: Inventories at 9-year high; price gains at a 10-year low The report shows a continued weakening in the housing market, with inventories up sharply while prices are softening. The inventory of unsold homes rose to a record 3725 million, a 68 month supply at the June sales rate, the highest since July 1997. The median price has risen 09% in the past year to $231,000. "I hope we are hitting bottom," said David Lereah, chief economist for the private real estate trade group, which is predicting sales of about 660 million this year. Sales fell 23% in the South and fell 35% in the Northeast. Single-family sales fell 09% to 581 million from 586 million. Median prices of single-family homes are up 11% in the past year, while condo prices are down 21%. Sellers should expect lower prices, Lereah said, adding that he wouldn't be surprised to see single-family home prices fall nationally. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said in a monthly forecast that it expects sales this year of existing homes to fall 67 percent to 66 million units, the third highest yearly level on record, from 708 million in 2005. "We should see home sales rise and fall month to month, but don't look for any big shifts one way or the other," National Association of Realtors chief economist David Lereah said in a statement. "The major housing indicators have been moving up and down within a reasonable range, which means the market should even out just below present levels," he said. "At the same time, housing inventory levels are balanced in much of the country, so overall price appreciation will be at a normal rate." |