8/15 See, you had nothing to worry about. The outcome of the
Israel-Lebanon conflict was entirely predictable. That is, all
powerbrokers were unanimous in not wanting to draw Syria/Iran into it,
risking a regional war, although there was plenty of propagandizing /
throwing mud in people's faces along with the dead civilians:
7/13 Regardless of who's right or wrong (good luck on that), predictions
on the outcome of the Israelis hitting Lebanon? -John
[\_ ...]
\_ There are three objectives:
(1) Occupy a Israel-dictated buffer zone (again),
(2) Indicate that future kidnappings will be met with a
disproportione use of force (you'll hurt more than me), and
(3) Getting the soldiers back.
\_ The most likely outcome is a temporary ceasefire, with Israel
holdingonto a buffer zone in south Lebanon and airstrikes whenever
Hezbollah fires another rocket into Israel while the press writes
"wasn't there supposed to be a ceasefire?"
\_ No. I don't think anyone predicted that Israel's government would
chicken out and leave themselves looking like weak and inept
idiots. Now Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, and every other
psychotic crackpot with weapons in the Middle East is talking
tough and spoiling for another round. The weakness and dithering
on the part of Olmert's government only guaranteed that there will
be another war, it will be sooner than later and it will make this
Lebanon thing look like the minor skirmish it was. That's my
prediction. And oh yeah, *when* Iran gets nukes they will hit
Israel who will respond by destroying as much of the Middle East
as possible from Iran to Libya.
\_ you sure that Iran will nuke Israel *when* it gets nukes?
the moment Israel is nuked is the moment other govts lose their
favorite scapegoat. I also think the U.S. will finish any job
that Israel does not as far as nuking the aggressor.
that Israel does not as far as taking out the nuclear capability
of the aggressor, whatever it takes.
\_ Scapegoat? They want Israel destroyed much more than they
want a scapegoat. Whoever manages that will be the hero of
the muslim world for all time up there with Saladin and maybe
even Mohammad himself. I make no predictions about what the
US will do if nukes go off in the ME.
\_ The Iranian leadership wants Israel destroyed much more
than it wants a scapegoat? I disagree with that. Random
terrorist group and their supporters want that? Okay.
Who controls future nukes? The former.
I predict Iranian nukes, if Iran ever gets them, will be
used as a "if you fuck with us, we'll really fuck you over"
deterrent, and securing of those nukes will be at or better
than Pakistan.
\_ So you hear all the crap the Iranians are spewing from
the highest levels of their government about destroying
Israel and think they're bluffing? Iran doesn't need
nukes to hold Israel off. Israel isn't doing anything
to the Iranians. Iran is not at risk from Israeli
attack. I have no idea how you came to that conclusion
but time will tell.
\_ When you have mutually assured destruction, what
other conclusion can you come to?
\_ You have a religious regime that doesn't care if
they die. They welcome it. They preach it. You
do not have mutually assued destruction's cold
war era effect going on with Iran. Without MAD
the only conclusion you can come to is they mean
what they say when they say they're going to
destroy Israel. They don't mean at the next
Olympics. They mean they're going to destroy
Israel. Why don't you believe what they say?
Why would they say what they've said on a regular
basis if they didn't mean it? *When* Iran gets
nukes Israel will be nuked. Whatever is left of
the military is going to nuke everything in the
entire Middle East without regard for the niceties
of "oh gosh it was an unknown terrorist with a
bomb on a truck, we'll do an ivnestigation and
get back to you on it".
\_ I will grant you that the theocracy in Iran
wants and continues to advocate the destruction
of Israel. However, they also want the
continuation of their precious Iranian way of
life. The mullahs, imams, and ayatollahs know
they have a very sweet thing going now in their
locked down theocracy, and they have no
intention of messing it up. Their first goal is
the preservation of their own rule, followed by
the destruction of Israel and restoration of
Palestinian rule; it is due to their fear of
unilateral destruction that they continue to
move through proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, Sadr)
rather than act directly (i.e., deployment of
the Iranian army). When Iran gets nukes, expect
a period of retrenchment followed by a
resurgence in their support of their proxies.
Oh, and a hell of a lot more rhetoric.
\_ Really it all comes down to just how crazy
do you think the Iranians really are. I
look at how they run their internal affairs
as well as foreign and they're either insane
or incompetent to an insane degree. Either
way I think we can agree that a nuclear
armed Iran is just about the worst thing
possible for the world as a whole, not just
the region even if it doesn't come down to
a nuclear fire storm.
\_ Right. I think it comes down to whether
you think they're suicidal-crazy or just
crazy-crazy. Cf. Kim Jong Il: crazy, but
also very much attached to his life and
the preservation thereof.
\_ doubt it'll be Iran, but rather some other nameless terrorist
group that 'got them from somewhere' that remains unnamed,
to leave israel with nobody specific to retaliate against.
of the aggressor, whatever it takes.
\_ for that matter, nameless terrorist group might as well
get the nuke from pakistan / n korea / russia
7/13 Regardless of who's right or wrong (good luck on that), predictions
on the outcome of the Israelis hitting Lebanon? -John
[\_ ...]
\_ There are three objectives:
(1) Occupy a Israel-dictated buffer zone (again),
(2) Indicate that future kidnappings will be met with a
disproportione use of force (you'll hurt more than me), and
(3) Getting the soldiers back.
\_ The most likely outcome is a temporary ceasefire, with Israel
holding onto a buffer zone in south Lebanon and airstrikes whenever
holdingonto a buffer zone in south Lebanon and airstrikes whenever
Hezbollah fires another rocket into Israel while the press writes
"wasn't there supposed to be a ceasefire?"
\_ Why do you think Israel invaded Lebanon? It's to show
that they are not above taking revenge on governments
supporting 'nameless terrorist groups'. I think Israel
would use it as a chance to nuke every fucking enemy
they ever had, involved or not.
\_ I don't think there will be an 'Israel' left post-nuke
so much as a few subs with MERVS and whatever nukes
survive buried out in the sand where the soliders
have orders to fire if Telaviv is ever blown up. But
my call is that every arab capitol plus Mecca, Medina,
and the key oil fields and refinery/shipping cities are
all dust.
\_ It's a really small step from that to the end of
human civilization as we currently understand it.
All of the scenarios for "limited" nuclear war are
pretty dicey. Can you imagine what would happen to
the world if a nuclear war leveled the middle east?
You thought gas was expensive before...
Or are you just looking forward to being Mad Max?
\_ Yes, I can imagine all that. I didn't say I'm
looking forward to any of it. I don't base my
predictions on what I'd like to happen. I base
them on what I believe will happen given my
understanding of the situation and the people
involved. What is the point of making a bogus
prediction based on what I'd like to happen?
That isn't a prediction, it is just sticking
one's head in the ground. I don't have to like
it to believe it. |
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