Berkeley CSUA MOTD:Entry 42250
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2025/05/25 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
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2006/3/15-17 [ERROR, uid:42250, category id '18005#19.63' has no name! , , Politics/Domestic/President/Bush] UID:42250 Activity:nil
3/15    Democratic Congressional Lead Among Registered Voters Largest Since
        '82 Midterm election
        http://poll.gallup.com/content/?ci=21928
        Pew Research Poll puts Bush at 33% approval rating
        http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=271
2025/05/25 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
5/25    

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poll.gallup.com/content/?ci=21928
Next GALLUP NEWS SERVICE PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll finds the Democratic Party leading the Republican Party 55% to 39% among registered voters in the generic congressional ballot. Gallup asks this question to get a sense of how people will vote in this year's elections for the US House of Representatives. This is the largest lead Democrats have held over Republicans in the 2006 campaign thus far, and the largest lead Democrats have enjoyed among registered voters in a midterm election since 1982. In the 1992 presidential campaign, Democrats led Republicans by 20 percentage points following the Democratic national convention that year. Once likely voter turnout models are applied -- something usually done later in the campaign -- the Democrats' advantage on the generic ballot is reduced given higher turnout rates among Republicans than Democrats. Still, a lead of this size would suggest a solid Democratic advantage among likely voters and the likelihood of Democratic seat gains. The Democrats' current lead of 16 percentage points in the Mar 10-12 poll is slightly higher than a 14-point lead (53% to 39%) in the Feb. In several polls between October and early February, the Democratic lead among registered voters was in single digits, which would suggest a fairly competitive election if likely voter models were applied. Democrats almost always lead among registered voters whenever the generic ballot is asked, due to historical advantages in Democratic Party identification among the general public. This has been the case even since Republicans took majority control of the House of Representatives following the 1994 elections. In recent midterm elections, Democrats have held much smaller registered voter leads on the generic ballot, and Republicans have won the greater share of the congressional vote since then. For example, in 1994 and 2002 -- two of the strongest Republican years -- Democrats did not have a double-digit lead among registered voters at any point during the campaign. In 1998, Democrats managed a 13-point lead among registered voters in September, which was basically cut in half by Election Day, and cut in half again once voter turnout was taken into account by applying the likely voter model. Republicans won a narrow majority of the two-party congressional vote that year, but Democrats gained a net of five seats in the House. Prior to 1994, when Democrats held majority status in the House, Democrats typically held double-digit leads among registered voters (and often among likely voters) in the final pre-election polls, and subsequently won majorities of the congressional vote. Democrats have not held a lead as big as their current one since the final pre-election poll in 1982, when they led by 18 points among registered voters (and by 10 points among likely voters). In that year, Democrats won 269 seats in the US House, a gain of 26 seats from before the election. It is unclear what type of seat gains Democrats could expect this year -- assuming current conditions hold -- given recent concerted efforts by state legislatures to protect incumbents when re-drawing congressional districts every 10 years. Past Democratic Leads on Gallup Generic Ballot Versus Final Voting Outcome Midterm election years Election year Largest Dem. lead/deficit among likely voters, final pre-election poll Dem. lead/deficit in final two-party vote for US House 2002 +9 (Oct) +5 -6 -5 1998 +13 (Sept) +7 -- -1 1994 +6 (Jun) -- -7 -7 1990 +10 (Oct) +10 +6 +8 1986 +13 (Jul) +12 NA +10 1982 +20 (Feb, Apr) +18 +10 +12 1978 +29 (Feb) +11 +10 +9 1974 +32 (Jul) +26 +19 +17 1970 +14 (Jan, Oct) +10 +6 +8 1966 +18 (Jul) +9 +4 +3 1962 +24 (May) +16 +16 +5 1958 +23 (Sept) +11 +16 +13 1954 +15 (Jul) NA +4 +6 1950 +22 (Oct) +2 +2 -- This chart shows that in the majority of cases the Democrats' largest leads on the generic ballot were measured before the fall, with the final pre-election poll lead considerably smaller in some cases. This is a reminder that much can change over the course of an election year, and that the current poll, while very positive for Democrats, can only measure voting intentions as of today. Democrats Have Advantage on Issues In addition to measuring Americans' congressional voting intentions, the poll also asked the public whether the Democrats or Republicans in Congress would better handle each of three issues -- the economy, the situation in Iraq, and terrorism. Do you think the Republicans in Congress or the Democrats in Congress would do a better job of dealing with each of the following issues and problems? In October, the Republican advantage on terrorism was 11 points, 49% to 38%. In 2003, the Republican advantage averaged 27 points, 55% to 28%. While there have been signs of a strengthening economy, most Americans do not perceive the economy to be in great shape. That might explain why Americans view the Democrats in Congress as better able to deal with the economy than Republicans, by a wide 53% to 38% margin. Democrats led by a similar 50% to 38% margin in October, when the economic outlook was perhaps less positive. Democrats also have a lead on perceptions of which party would better handle the situation in Iraq, 48% to 40%. During the early stages of the war, a July 2003 poll found Republicans with a 51% to 36% advantage on the issue. Iraq is certainly poised to be an important campaign issue this year. The poll confirms this, as 61% of registered voters say it will be very important to their vote, including 18% who say it will be the most important issue to their vote. The issue of Iraq could explain the current wide Democratic lead on the generic ballot. Among registered voters who say Iraq is very important or the most important issue to their vote, 60% say they would vote for the Democratic House candidate and 33% choose the Republican candidate. Among those who say the issue is only moderately important or not important to their vote, the parties are basically even, with 48% currently supporting Republican candidates and 46% backing Democratic candidates. This pattern is not merely a function of Democrats saying the issue is important and Republicans disagreeing. While Democratic registered voters (68%) are more likely than Republican registered voters (52%) to say the issue is the most important or a very important issue to their vote, a majority of both groups consider it important. Survey Methods These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,001 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Mar 10-12, 2006. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is +-3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. For results based on the sample of 908 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is +-4 percentage points.
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people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=271
In the aftermath of the Dubai ports deal, President Bush's approval rating has hit a new low and his image for honesty and effectiveness has been damaged. Yet the public uncharacteristically has good things to say about the role that Congress played in this high-profile Washington controversy. Most Americans (58%) believe Congress acted appropriately in strenuously opposing the deal, while just 24% say lawmakers made too much of the situation. While there is broad support for the way Congress handled the dispute, more Americans think Democratic leaders showed good judgment on the ports issue than say the same about GOP leaders (by 30%-20%). The new Pew survey underscores the public's alarm over the prospect that an Arab-owned company could have operated US ports. Fully 41% say they paid very close attention to news about the debate, which is unusually high interest for a Washington story and is only slightly lower than the number tracking Iraq war news very closely (43%). There was broad opposition to the proposed deal from across the political spectrum, including two-to-one disapproval among conservative Republicans (56%-27%). Bush's overall approval measure stands at 33%, the lowest rating of his presidency. Bush's job performance mark is now about the same as the ratings for Democratic and Republican congressional leaders (34% and 32%, respectively), which showed no improvement in spite of public approval of the congressional response to the ports deal. The president's ratings for handling of several specific issues, particularly terrorism, have also declined sharply. Just 42% now approve of Bush's job in handling terrorist threats, an 11-point drop since February. In January 2005, as Bush was starting his second term, 62% approved of his handling of terrorist threats. Bush's personal image also has weakened noticeably, which is reflected in people's one-word descriptions of the president. Honesty had been the single trait most closely associated with Bush, but in the current survey "incompetent" is the descriptor used most frequently (See pp. The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted among 1,405 adults from March 8-12, finds no evidence of a public backlash against foreign commercial and economic ties in the wake of the ports deal. A narrow majority (53%) has a negative view of foreign investors owning US companies. But that is significantly less than the 70% expressing the same opinion in 1989, when high-profile acquisitions of US firms by Japanese companies provoked widespread concern. Moreover, by 53%-36% more Americans view foreign companies investing in the United States as a good thing; there are no significant partisan differences on this issue. Two-thirds of Americans (66%) believe free trade is good for the United States, which is largely unchanged since 2000. However, the public continues to have an overwhelmingly negative view of "outsourcing" jobs by American businesses. About seven-in-ten (71%) say the practice is bad because it sends good jobs overseas, while 20% think it is good for the US because it keeps costs down. The survey finds that the falloff in the president's support since the start of his second term includes a significant decline in support among Republicans. Overall, half of Americans approved of Bush's overall job performance in January 2005, while 43% disapproved. Today, just 33% approve compared with 57% who disapprove. In January 2005, Bush earned a lofty 89% approval from members of his own party, but that has declined to 73% in the current survey. Among independents, the number approving of Bush's job performance has fallen from 47% in January 2005 to 26% today; and Bush's support among Democrats, already quite low, has fallen by about half since the start of his second term (from 17% to 9%). Core Supporters Less Satisfied with Bush A more detailed portrait of the falloff in Bush approval shows significant declines among groups who had been the president's strongest supporters. In January 2005, conservative Republicans approved of the president by a margin of 94% to 3%. While still overwhelmingly supportive, today just 78% of conservative Republicans approve while 16% disapprove. Support from moderate and liberal Republicans has dropped by about the same amount, from 82% to 65% today. Many people who voted for Bush in the 2004 election are more critical of his performance. Currently, 68% of Bush voters approve of his performance, while 22% disapprove. Shortly after the election Bush voters approved of his performance by a margin of 92% to 4%. White evangelical Christians were solidly behind the president throughout his first term in office, but that support has waned over the past 15 months. Currently, just 54% of white evangelicals approve of the president's job in office, while 36% disapprove. Bush's support has also dropped among people who attend church each week or more frequently. According to post-election exit polls conducted by the National Election Pool, these voters backed Bush over Kerry by a 61%-38% margin. But today more disapprove (46%) than approve (42%) of his performance. Even among people who say that the war in Iraq was the right decision, support for the president has declined. Today, 30% of people who believe that the use of force in Iraq was the right decision disapprove of the president's overall job performance, up from just 14% in January 2005. Job approval among Iraq war supporters has fallen from 81% to 58% over this time span. Congress has drawn bipartisan praise from the American public for its response to the possible transfer of US port operations to a United Arab Emirates company. Nearly two-thirds of Democrats (68%), and roughly half each of independents (53%) and Republicans (49%) said Congress acted appropriately, though a third of Republicans felt too much was made of the issue. Democratic leaders fared somewhat better than Republicans in this debate, based mostly on the support of their own partisans. Overall, three-in-ten say they thought Democratic leaders showed better judgment on this issue, while 20% favored the Republican leaders. Only 38% of Republicans favored the way GOP leaders handled the issue, compared with 54% of Democrats who favored the job their leaders did. Independents were more divided (29% favored how Democratic leaders handled the issue, 20% Republicans), while half saw no difference between the parties' performance. But No Boost in Approval While members of Congress may have averted widespread criticism in this case, there is no evidence that their stand against the Dubai ports deal improved either party's public image. Comparable percentages say they approve of the job Republican leaders (32%) and Democratic leaders (34%) are doing both figures are unchanged from January and have not moved significantly in more than six months. While DP World, the United Arab Emirates company involved in the deal, agreed on March 9 to transfer all operations at US ports to an American entity, 38% of Americans do not think that this is a satisfactory solution to the issue, and another 16% aren't sure how they feel about it. This dissatisfaction is strongest among the three-quarters of Americans who opposed the deal originally, 44% of whom are not satisfied with the current solution, while 45% are satisfied. Among the minority who approved of the original deal, most see this as a satisfactory solution by a 66%-27% margin. Despite public support for scuttling the ports deal, most Americans are either very (24%) or somewhat (34%) concerned that America may have angered important allies in the Middle East by opposing this deal. This concern crosses party lines, with Democrats, Republicans and independents expressing comparable levels of concern. This consideration was clearly a factor for the minority of Americans who supported allowing the original deal to go through. Though only 14% took this position, they are twice as likely as the majority who opposed the deal to be very concerned about how this will affect US interests in the Middle East, and 77% are at least somewhat concerned in this regard. Foreign...