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| 5/24 |
| 2006/2/2-4 [Politics/Domestic/President/Bush] UID:41664 Activity:low |
2/2 Misstatement of the Union: The President burnishes the State of the
Union through selective facts and strategic omissions.
http://www.factcheck.org/article376.html
\_ This is the third http://Factcheck.org update I've received in a week. The
others are:
"A DNC TV ad accuses Bush of breaking his word, but it strains some
facts in the process."
http://factcheck.org/article373.html
"A liberal group re-names itself and launches a $1-million ad
campaign making dubious claims."
http://factcheck.org/article372.html
\_ Please, stay on topic. People are spamming the motd with
partisan pro-Republican bs about the SOTU, so here's a non-
partisan evaluation of it.
\_ And people are never spamming motd with partisan anti-
Republican bs?
\_ Irrelevant. Topic is SOTU. Come back when you have some-
thing to say about it.
\_ Irrelevant. It's motd. People post whatever,
wherever, they wish.
\_ True, but as a reader, I believe the first guy and
think the second is wasting air. Other readers
by definition may think differently. -someone else |
| 5/24 |
|
| www.factcheck.org/article376.html Printer Friendly Version Summary The President left out a few things when surveying the State of the Union: * He proudly spoke of "writing a new chapter in the story of self-government" in Iraq and Afghanistan and said the number of democracies in the world is growing. He failed to mention that neither Iraq nor Afghanistan yet qualify as democracies according to the very group whose statistics he cited. Bills now in Congress would propose a Constitutional amendment, but none have shown signs of life. The net gain since Bush took office is just a little more than 2 million. Actually, total federal spending has increased 42 percent since Bush took office. But the deficit is increasing this year, and according to the Congressional Budget Office it will decline by considerably less than half even if Bush's tax cuts are allowed to lapse. Analysis We found nothing that was factually incorrect in the President's Jan. We also found that Bush omitted some relevant facts that tended to make the state of the union look less rosy than he presented. Bush: In 1945, there were about two dozen lonely democracies in the world. And we're writing a new chapter in the story of self-government -- with women lining up to vote in Afghanistan, and millions of Iraqis marking their liberty with purple ink, and men and women from Lebanon to Egypt debating the rights of individuals and the necessity of freedom. Democracy & Freedom The President spoke of the growing number of nations in the world that live under democratic governments, and said "we're writing a new chapter in the story of self-government" in Iraq and Afghanistan. The President's numbers come from Freedom House, a nonprofit group that tracks levels of democracy and freedom around the globe. It is true, just as the President said, that there were 122 democracies in the world in 2005, but Iraq and Afghanistan are not yet counted among them by Freedom House. Also, Freedom House rates neither Iraq nor Afghanistan as "free." It rates Iraq as "not free," with scores on civil liberties and political freedom as low as those of Egypt. Afghanistan is rated somewhat better but still only "partly free." We asked Puddington why the highly publicized elections in Iraq and Afghanistan don't yet qualify those countries to be counted as democracies. "Its a flawed way of thinking to believe that elections alone guarantee democracy," Puddington said. "You have to have a reasonable rule of law, a reasonable amount of freedom of the press, personal security. You have to have a fair and consistent electoral process in place, and you have to have the people who are elected then effectively governing the society." Bush: I am pleased that members of Congress are working on earmark reform, because the federal budget has too many special interest projects. And we can tackle this problem together, if you pass the line-item veto. struck down a line-item veto as a violation of the Constitution in 1998, after President Clinton exercised the power once. The vote was 6 to 3, and one of the three Justices who wanted to uphold the power was Sandra Day O'Connor, whose resignation from the high court took effect earlier on the same day Bush spoke. The President offered no explanation of how the veto might be revived by legislation in a form that the current, more conservative Supreme Court would approve, nor did he call specifically for a Constitutional amendment. This was Bush's first mention of a line-item veto in a State of the Union address, though he and several of his subordinates have made mention of his support for such a veto throughout his presidency. Congress has so far shown very little interest, however. A bill to amend the Constitution to create a line-item veto has been introduced in every Congress during Bush's presidency, but all died in committee without so much as a hearing. Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina introduced such a bill in late September to amend the Constitution to include the line-item veto, and it currently sits dormant in the Judiciary Committee. Todd Russell Platts of Pennsylvania introduced a similar bill in the House on Sept. Bush: Our economy is healthy and vigorous, and growing faster than other major industrialized nations. In the last two-and-a-half years, America has created 46 million new jobs -- more than Japan and the European Union combined. Even in the face of higher energy prices and natural disasters, the American people have turned in an economic performance that is the envy of the world. Jobs The President noted that the US has gained 46 million jobs in the past two-and-a-half years. However, most of that gain merely made up for the 26 million jobs that were lost during Bush's first two-and-a-half years. The graph below shows the cumulative change in jobs starting in January 2001, when Bush first took office, and ending in December 2005, the most recent month for which the Bureau of Labor Statistics has released figures for total nonfarm employment. That's significantly lower than most other industrialized democracies. Unemployment in Germany stands at 93 per cent, France at 92 per cent, Canada at 65 per cent. figures from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Bush: Keeping America competitive requires us to be good stewards of tax dollars. Every year of my presidency, we've reduced the growth of non-security discretionary spending, and last year you passed bills that cut this spending. This year my budget will cut it again, and reduce or eliminate more than 140 programs that are performing poorly or not fulfilling essential priorities. By passing these reforms, we will save the American taxpayer another $14 billion next year, and stay on track to cut the deficit in half by 2009. Spending The President, speaking of being "good stewards of tax dollars," focused on one small part of the budget and did not mention rapid growth in overall federal spending that has taken place under his tenure. He said "we've reduced the growth of non-security discretionary spending," which is true. However, that category accounts for only about 16 per cent of the whole federal budget, and it too has grown, though not as rapidly as other categories. Bush said bills were passed last year that would actually cut this category, and that is correct. The decline is projected to be 05 per cent, according to figures from the Office of Management and Budget. Overall federal spending is up 42 per cent under Bush, according to figures from the Congressional Budget Office. And CBO projects further upward pressure on spending, including rising interest rates pushing up the cost of servicing the swelling national debt, and rising medical costs and Bush's new prescription drug benefit pushing up the cost of Medicare. CBO projects interest costs will increase 18 per cent in the current fiscal year, and Medicare will go up 17 per cent. The President proposed cutting $14 billion worth of programs and said this would keep the US "on track to cut the deficit in half by 2009." Not mentioned is that the deficit is going up this year. It was $317 billion in the fiscal year that ended last Oct. CBO currently projects the deficit to decline to $241 billion in fiscal 2009, but that doesn't include the effects of making Bush's tax cuts permanent, something Bush urged strongly in his speech. Bush: Breakthroughs on this and other new technologies will help us reach another great goal: to replace more than 75 percent of our oil imports from the Middle East by 2025. By applying the talent and technology of America, this country can dramatically improve our environment, move beyond a petroleum-based economy, and make our dependence on Middle Eastern oil a thing of the past. Oil Imports The President voiced a "goal" of replacing more than three-quarters "of our oil imports from the Middle East" by the year 2025. He did not mention that the US has grown more dependent on imported oil and petroleum products since he took office. figures from the Energy Information Administration, the US imported 60 percent of its oil and petroleum products during the first 11 months of last year, up from just under 53 percent in Presi... |
| factcheck.org/article373.html Printer Friendly Version Summary An ad released by the Democratic National Committee in advance of President Bush's Jan. We find it misleading in most respects, but close to the mark on the deficit. Jobs:The ad gives a misleading picture of Bush's record on jobs, which is weak but not as weak as the ad implies. It uses a misleading statistic that focuses only on one category of employment: manufacturing. In fact, counting all categories of employment, the economy has squeezed out a gain of nearly 2 million jobs since Bush took office five years ago. Body Armor: The ad also takes liberties with a New York Times story that said the lives of 300 troops might have been saved with "improved" body armor. The ad calls it "proper" body armor, a term not used by the Times story. Actually, some military experts say the bulkier, heavier new armor would unduly weigh down troops fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. Education: The ad says Bush's "No Child Left Behind" legislation has been "underfunded" by nearly $10 billion. That's misleading because federal aid for elementary schools and high schools actually has increased 33 percent under Bush, according to the Congressional Research Service. The "underfunding" refers to the gap that remains between the higher spending levels signed by Bush and the authorization level - the theoretical maximum that could be appropriated. In fact, federal appropritions usually fall short of their authorized levels for education programs, in both Republican and Democratic administrations. Deficit: The ad is close to the mark, however, when it chides Bush on the deficit, which the President said four years ago would be "small and short-term." In fact, the deficit projected for this year is close to a record in dollar terms and higher than average even as measured as a percentage of US economic output. It is nearly the same as in 1968, when Lyndon Johnson was spending heavily for the Vietnam War and his Great Society programs, though less than half what it reached in 1983 under Ronald Reagan. National Journal's "Ad Spotlight" later reported that the ad would also run Feb. The new ad is called "Broken Promises" and it features a series of quotes from President Bush, some of which have also been featured in a Kerry Campaign television advertisement that ran in 2004. So, my economic security plan can be summed up in one word: jobs. Bush: The "No Child Left Behind Act" is opening the door of opportunity to all of America's children. On screen: No Child Left Behind Underfunded By Almost $10 Billion. Bush: We should and must provide the best care for anybody who's willing to put their life in harm's way. On screen: Hundreds Of Lives Could Have Been Saved With Proper Body Armor. address, saying "my economic security plan can be summed up in one word: jobs." Actually, in the four years since Bush delivered that line, the economy has gained nearly 39 million jobs. It's true the economy struggled during Bush's first term, and it is also literally true that latest BLS figures show 28 million fewer manufacturing jobs than when the President first took office. But relatively few people work on production lines these days. Furthermore, the decline in manufacturing jobs began years before Bush took office. Between March of 1998 and the time Bush took office in 2001, the economy already had lost 536,000 manufacturing jobs. During his entire eight-year tenure President Clinton barely broke even in this category, holding onto a small net gain of 311,000 manufacturing jobs despite the decline in his last three years. Looking at total employment, it is fair to say that Bush's record on jobs is weak, especially compared to Clinton's. The economy started to lose jobs within two months of Bush's taking office in January 2001, and continued to do so until the low point of May 2003. Latest figures show a net gain of nearly 2 million jobs. Body Armor The ad says "proper body armor could have saved hundreds of lives," citing a New York Times news story on screen. The Times story refers to "extra" body armor, and does not use the word "proper" to describe it. Furthermore, the story places no blame on Bush or the White House for failing to supply the bulkier, heavier type of armor, which has been the subject of debate among military planners at the Pentagon. The Times story cites a "secret Pentagon study" by medical examiners of 93 Marines who died of upper-body wounds. The study found that in 31 of those cases larger body-armor plates "'would have had the potential to alter the fatal outcome." The Times reporter said this "suggests" that 300 or more lives might have been saved with "improved" body armor, though this is the reporter's conclusion, extrapolating the findings over all combat deaths in Iraq, and not part of the study itself. Body armor already has undergone considerable improvements since the Iraq War began. And not all military experts agree that the added bulk and weight of more armor would be a good thing. After the Times story ran, The Associated Press reported from Iraq quoting several soldiers who didn't like the idea. "You've got to sacrifice some protection for mobility," The AP quoted him saying. "If you cover your entire body in ceramic plates, you're just not going to be able to move." A few days later the Times ran an opinion piece by military writer Andrew Exum, a former infantry officer in Iraq and Afghanistan, who said newer body armor unveiled by the Pentagon doubles its weight, from 16 pounds to 32 pounds for a medium-sized soldier. "At some point, the public's desire to wrap our troops in a protective blanket of armor just gets ridiculous," Exum stated. Nevertheless, the Army placed an emergency, $70-million order for 230,000 ceramic armor side plates with California-based Ceradyne Inc. Education Funding The ad also faults Bush for "underfunding" his No Child Left Behind Act (NCLB) by almost $10 billion. The NCLB Act instituted mandatory testing of students in reading and mathematics and requires schools to make progress toward statewide proficiency goals. The DNC cites as its source a recent Congressional Research Service report, which actually shows that federal appropriations for federal programs supporting grades kindergarten through 12th grade have increased by one-third under Bush, to more than $37 billion in the current fiscal year ending Oct. The CRS report does not offer any support for the Democratic claim that Bush promised additional federal funds when the NCLB ad was passed with bipartisan support in 2002. Since then, the CRS report notes, "there has been a continuing discussion regarding the appropriations 'promised' and the resulting 'shortfall' when the enacted appropriations are compared to authorization levels." Authorization levels are dollar amounts contained in the legislation that creates federal programs. But before any money can be spent a separate appropriation measure must be passed, which seldom provides the maximum amount of money that is authorized. As the CRS report notes, "In the past, education programs with specified authorization amounts generally have been funded at lower levels; few have been funded at levels equal to or higher than the specified authorization amount." W e find it misleading to use the term "underfunding" without explaining what that really means. Budget Deficit The ad quotes Bush as saying "Our budget will run a deficit that will be small and short-term," and shows on screen: "Deficit Of $337 Billion in 2006." The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is cited as the source. The CBO in fact predicts it will be even larger than the $337 billion figure shown in the ad, assuming that Congress approves spending that CBO says will probably be needed to fund military activities in Iraq and Afghanistan, and for flood insurance claims. That would be close to the record of $413 billion recorded in 2004. Bush's deficit this year is larger than average even measured the way most economists prefer, as a percentage of the entire US economy (gauged by Gross Domestic Product, or GDP). CBO expects the deficit to be about 28 percent of GDP this year. Viewed in historical context, the ... |
| factcheck.org/article372.html Printer Friendly Version Summary A liberal, labor-funded group calling itself Americans United for Change (previously Americans United to Protect Social Security) is running a $1-million national advertising campaign that makes some dubious claims and tries to imply more than it can prove. The one-minute ad attempts to link Bush's recently signed energy legislation with high gasoline prices, and implies that former FEMA director Michael Brown was somehow linked to the Abramoff and DeLay scandals. It also assails Republicans for "cutting healthcare for our seniors," ignoring the fact that Medicare is undergoing its largest expansion since it was enacted. In fact, the new prescription drug benefit will provide an average, net benefit this year of $465 per person, according to an independent estimate by the Kaiser Family Foundation. The cuts the ad refers to will amount to less than a penny of every $3 over the next five years, according to projections by the Congressional Budget Office. Analysis Americans United for Change announced a new 60-second television ad called "Time," set to premier Jan. It attacks President Bush and the Republicans, calls for enactment of reform measures and a change in "the state of our leadership." while you stand at the gas pump paying forty dollars to fill your tank? while political friends get appointed to run life-or-death agencies? The footage pauses and a rectangular piece flies away revealing the text, "Stop the abuse of power") Narrator: End secret meetings with lobbyists. A rectangular piece of the screen flies away revealing the text, "End secret lobbyist meetings") Narrator: Ban gifts and trips for Congress (On Screen: A photo of a Halliburton building. A rectangular piece of the screen flies away revealing the text, "Ban gifts and trips") Narrator: To improve the state of our nation, we must improve the state of our leadership. story, the group has received $500,000 from the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, a large labor union representing government workers. The AP also quote unnamed officials of Americans United as saying "Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid of Nevada and House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi of California met with potential donors in Los Angeles earlier this month, underscoring their personal interest in the group's efforts ." The group's executive director Karen Olick had been chief of staff to Democratic Sen. org: "We are not advocating for or promoting the Democratic party agenda - we are promoting progressive issues." We make no comment on the ad's call for "commonsense reforms" or a change in "the state of our leadership." However, the ad makes misleading statements about President Bush's record on Medicare, invites viewers to blame the President for high gasoline prices without offering any relevant evidence, and suggests that Bush's appointment of Michael D Brown to head the Federal Emergency Management Agency had something to do with the crimes of convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff, which isn't true. while you stand at the gas pump paying forty dollars to fill your tank." This implies a connection that isn't supported by evidence. In fact, one of the incentives would allow an immediate write-off of 50 percent of the cost to increase the capacity of an existing refinery by at least five percent, or to increase the output of qualified fuels by at least 25 percent. That is aimed at increasing the supply of refined gasoline, diesel fuel and home heating oil, which would tend to hold down their prices, not increase them. What is keeping gasoline prices higher than they were a year or two ago, economists generally agree, is a rising worldwide demand for all petroleum products. As the nonpartisan Energy Information Administration puts it: "Crude oil prices rose throughout 2004 and 2005, as global oil demand increased dramatically, stretching capacity along the entire oil market system, from crude oil production to transportation (tankers and pipelines) to refinery capacity, nearly to its limits." Another factor is the continuing effect of Hurricane Katrina, which damaged drilling platforms, refineries and pipelines along the Gulf Coast. The EIA said "retail prices are likely to remain elevated as long as some refineries remain shut down and the US gasoline market continues to stretch supplies to their limit." The ad also invites a false inference by visually suggesting that the appointment of Michael Brown to head the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) had something to do with convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. It shows photos of Abramoff, former House Republican Leader Tom DeLay and former vice presidential chief of staff I Lewis "Scooter" Libby, and then a photo of Brown. while political friends get appointed to run life-or-death agencies." It is of course true that DeLay and Libby have been indicted. They say they are innocent and face trial on multiple charges. It is also true that Abramoff pleaded guilty to fraud and other charges and is said to be cooperating with prosecutors in a wider probe. It is also true that Brown qualified as a "political friend" of the Bush administration, and left his job after widespread complaints that he was unqualified and had mishandled federal relief efforts during the Katrina disaster. We find no evidence of Brown owing his appointment to Abramoff, DeLay or Libby. It is true that a one-time Abramoff associate, David Safavian, was the top administrator at the federal procurement office in the White House Office of Management and Budget until he was arrested Sept. But Safavian isn't mentioned in the ad and Safavian is not Brown. And while it is true that Safavian also worked on Katrina relief efforts, he worked on procurement policy, not "life or death" decisions. In fact, Bush signed the biggest expansion of Medicare since its enactment, adding a prescription drug benefit that took effect this month. Far from "cutting healthcare," the new drug benefit is estimated to reduce out-of-pocket spending for prescription drugs by an average of 37 percent - or $465 - for the 29 million seniors expected to enroll. and the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation, and is the most recent and authoritative estimate available. The Kaiser study estimates that one in four seniors will pay more for drugs, including retirees who may be dropped from more generous plans sponsored by the companies that once employed them. It is also true that Democrats had proposed a more generous and more expensive prescription drug benefit for Medicare, but could not get it through the Republican-controlled House. And as widely publicized, the transition to the very complicated new benefit program is causing widespread confusion in its first weeks. Nevertheless, the large majority of seniors are predicted to benefit substantially from the Bush drug benefit. projects that those two federal programs will cost over the five-year period (fiscal years 2006 through 2010). The ad's claim that Bush "gives away billions to the drug companies" is also contentious. In fact, no taxpayer money goes to drug companies under the new Medicaid benefit. The ad fails to make clear that it is referring to what Democrats like to call a "windfall" for pharmaceutical companies from a provision in the new law that prevents the federal government from requiring the companies to discount their prices. That is based on a disputed study, often cited by Democrats, authored by two Bush critics who once wrote that Bush's prescription drug bill is "breathtaking in its recklessness." The study was published in 2003 by Boston University researchers Alan Sager and Deborah Socolar, who concluded that $139 billion would go as "windfall profits" to drug companies. Their findings are contradicted by a study in March 2004 commissioned by the Pacific Research Institute, which describes itself as a "free-market think tank." They hired the accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers, which estimated that drug company profits would be much lower - from an increase of only 32% to a possible decline of 1%. The two studies make starkly different assumptions about whether the new drug benefit will... |
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