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| 11/23 |
| 2005/12/22-24 [Politics/Foreign/MiddleEast/Iraq] UID:41123 Activity:nil |
12/22 Remember Murtha's "80% of Iraqis want US to leave"? Here's where it
came from (and other useful info): http://factcheck.org/article366.html
\_ why those cheeky http://moveon.org people.
\_ http://abcnews.go.com/International/PollVault/story?id=1389228
Look at the bottom-most table.
Confidence in Public Institutions: Percent Confident
Police 68%
Iraqi Army 67%
Religious Leaders 67%
[...]
U.N. 31%
U.S./U.K. Forces 18%
To address the specific question of "when to leave":
Leave now 26%
Post-election 19%
Security restored 31%
Security restored and only Iraqi forces 16%
Longer 5%
Do you support or oppose the presence of coalition forces in Iraq:
Support 32%
Oppose 65%
To be accurate, I would say most Iraqis don't like us there,
but a little more than half want us to make sure things are stable
before we go ... |
| 11/23 |
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| factcheck.org/article366.html Printer Friendly Version Summary President Bush says a large majority of Iraqis think things are going wel l and expect them to get better. But each presents an incom plete and misleading picture of Iraqi public opinion, which is more comp lex than either side portrays. For example, the most recent poll shows that while nearly 65 percent of I raqis oppose the US presence in Iraq, only 26 per cent want US troops to "leave now. " The rest generally prefer that US forces remain until a n ew Iraqi government is in place, at least, or until security is restored or until Iraqi troops can operate on their own. MoveOn Political Action Ad "Polls Show" Announcer: A shopkeeper in Baghdad. But, a recent poll shows that most Iraqis think our troops should leave their country. org Political Action is responsible for the content of this advert isement The next day, Dec. org Political Action released a new ad enti tled "Polls Show" that said a recent poll shows that most Iraqis think our troops should leave their country. MoveOn said the ad will run in the districts of six Republican House members: Heather Wilson of New Mex ico, Jim Gerlach, Curt Weldon and Mike Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, Debo rah Pryce of Ohio and Dave Reichert of Washington. Iraqis: Life is good & getting better Bush drew from results of a poll released on Dec. It was sponsored by ABC, Time magazine, the British Broadcasting Corporation and several ot her foreign media outlets. It showed 71 per cent of those Iraqis who were polled, when asked how "th ings are going in your life these days," said either "very good" or "qui te good." And when asked how things will be in their lives a year from now, 64 per cent said either "much better" or "somewhat better." So Bush's optimistic figures were accurate, but he ignored another facet of Iraqi public opinion - the unpopularity of US forces there. The MoveOn ad, saying "most Iraqis think our troops should leave their co untry," also is supported by the ABC/Time /BBC poll. It found that 65 pe r cent of Iraqis said they either "somewhat" or "strongly" oppose the pr esence of coalition forces in Iraq. What MoveOn ignores is that most Iraqis don't want the US to leave immedi ately. The poll asked "How long do you think the US and other coalition forces s hould remain in Iraq?" The interviews were conducted in October and November, before Iraq's Dece mber election. The results are still being counted, and a new government should be in place within weeks. That means according to this poll that 45 per cent of Iraqis would like the US to leave fairly soon. The 'Secret' British Poll MoveOn also cites another "poll" in support of its ad. The Telegraph reported a "secret" poll commissio ned by the British Ministry of Defence and conducted by an Iraqi univers ity research team. The Telegraph said that they had "seen" it but full results were not published. The Telegraph said the poll showed 82 per cent of Iraqis "strongly" oppos e the presence of coalition forces a much higher figure than any of th e other Iraqi polls published to date. The 82 per cent figure has be en cited uncritically by Democrats including Rep. John Murtha of Pennsylvan ia and party chairman Howard Dean. The British government won't confirm or deny whether such a poll actually exists, or comment on the accuracy of the figures the newspaper reported. The Telegraph gave no information on how large the sample was, or what the statistical margin of error mi ght be, or even exactly what questions were asked. Without such informat ion there's no basis on which to judge how reliable such a poll might be . The margin of error in the ABC/BBC poll, for example, is plus or minus 25 percentage points, and the sample size was 1,711. org, MoveOn also cites a Zogby Poll from January 2005 and an Oxford Research Poll from June 2004. Both show majorities o f Iraqis opposing the presence of US forces in their country, though the polls are by no means "recent." Iraq: A complicated picture Neither the optimistic picture presented by Bush nor the pessimistic view reported in the MoveOn ad accurately paints the full complexity of Iraq i public opnion, at least as measured by the recent ABC/Time /BBC poll. For one thing, there is a great gap in opinion between Sunnis and Shiites : 86 per cent of Shiites polled say things are going well in their lives , while only 43 per cent of Sunnis do. Asked how things are going in the country as a whole, 53 of Shiites say "good" but only 9 per cent of Sun nis say the same. It may surprise Americans to learn that 63 per cent of Iraqis say they fe el "very safe" in their own neighborhoods, despite almost daily reports of bombings. But that includes 80 per cent of Shiites, and only 11 per c ent of Sunnis. Asked about confidence in the Iraqi army, 87 per cent of Shiites said they felt confident, compared to 37 per cent of Sunnis. The number of Iraqi h ouseholds saying they have mobile phones has increased tenfold to 62 p er cent since a previous ABC/Time /BBC poll was conducted in February 2004. The number of households saying they have satellite dishes has nea rly tripled to 86 per cent. Monthly income is now $263, up nearly $100 since the previous poll. On the other hand, 54 per cent still say they have electricity for only e ight hours per day or less. Fuel is also a persistent problem in this o il-rich nation: of those Iraqis who drive, 7 in 10 say they encounter li nes at the pump. Nearly half say they must wait for hours, and a quarter report waits measured in days. President's Address to the Nation ," Oval Office, the Wh ite House 18 Dec 2005 Rayment, Sean. "Secret MoD Poll: Iraqis Support Attacks on British Troops ," Sunday Telegraph, 23 Oct 2005. |
| abcnews.go.com/International/PollVault/story?id=1389228 originalreport originalreport Poll: Broad Optimism in Iraq, But Also Deep Divisions Among Groups On the Eve of the Elections, Most Iraqis Want Iraq To Stay Unified Iraq - Where Things Stand Interviews for the poll were conducted Oct. But views of the country's situation overall are f ar less positive, and there are vast differences in views among Iraqi gr oups a study in contrasts between increasingly disaffected Sunni areas and vastly more positive Shiite and Kurdish provinces. An ABC News poll in Iraq, conducted with Time magazine and other media pa rtners, includes some remarkable results: Despite the daily violence the re, most living conditions are rated positively, seven in 10 Iraqis say their own lives are going well, and nearly two-thirds expect things to i mprove in the year ahead. Court of Low Opinion Surprisingly, given the insurgents' attacks on Iraqi civilians, more than six in 10 Iraqis feel very safe in their own neighborhoods, up sharply from just 40 percent in a poll in June 2004. And 61 percent say local se curity is good up from 49 percent in the first ABC News poll in Iraq i n February 2004. Nonetheless, nationally, security is seen as the most pressing problem by far; Average household incomes have soared by 60 percent in the last 20 months (to $263 a month), 70 percent of Iraqis rate their own economic situati on positively, and consumer goods are sweeping the country. In early 200 4, 6 percent of Iraqi households had cell phones; O wnership of satellite dishes has nearly tripled, and many more families now own air conditioners (58 percent, up from 44 percent), cars, washing machines and kitchen appliances. Life In Iraq: Percent Saying Good In Your Life 70% For Country 44% There are positive political signs as well. Three-quarters of Iraqis expr ess confidence in the national elections being held this week, 70 percen t approve of the new constitution, and 70 percent including most peopl e in Sunni and Shiite areas alike want Iraq to remain a unified countr y Interest in politics has soared. ") Whatever the current problems, 69 percent of Iraqis expect things for the country overall to improve in the next year a remarkable level of opt imism in light of the continuing violence there. However, in a sign of t he many challenges ahead, this optimism is far lower in Sunni Arab-domin ated provinces, where just 35 percent are optimistic about the country's future. Negatives Other views, moreover, are more negative: Fewer than half, 46 percent, sa y the country is better off now than it was before the war. And half of Iraqis now say it was wrong for US-led forces to invade in spring 2003 , up from 39 percent in 2004. The number of Iraqis who say things are going well in their country overa ll is just 44 percent, far fewer than the 71 percent who say their own l ives are going well. Fifty-two percent instead say the country is doing badly. There's other evidence of the United States' increasing unpopularity: Two -thirds now oppose the presence of US and coalition forces in Iraq, 14 points higher than in February 2004. Nearly six in 10 disapprove of how the United States has operated in Iraq since the war, and most of them disapprove strongly. And nearly half of Iraqis would like to see US fo rces leave soon. Specifically, 26 percent of Iraqis say US and other coalition forces sh ould "leave now" and another 19 percent say they should go after the gov ernment chosen in this week's election takes office; Roughly the other half says coalition forces should remain until s ecurity is restored (31 percent), until Iraqi security forces can operat e independently (16 percent), or longer (5 percent). This survey was sponsored by ABC News with partners Time, the BBC, the Ja panese network NHK and the German newsmagazine Der Spiegel, with fieldwo rk by Oxford Research International. It consists of in-person interviews with a random national sample of 1,711 Iraqis from early October throug h mid-November. There were limitations on questions in the survey because of security con cerns; given the sectarian violence, Iraqis were not asked their religio us doctrine, Sunni or Shiite. Instead this analysis looks at Sunni-domin ated, Shia-dominated, mixed and Kurdish regions, using previous data to categorize provinces. Sunni and Shiite Sunni Arabs, the favored group under Saddam Hussein, lost their status wi th his overthrow and clearly resent it. In contrast Shiites, the larger group, are embracing their newfound political clout despite the terroris m that largely has targeted them. Kurds in the North (who are Sunnis, bu t attitudinally far different from Sunni Arabs), the strongest supporter s of the United States by far, are the most positive Iraqi group, by din t of the greater autonomy they've long sought. People in mixed areas of the country, notably the population center, Bagh dad, tend to view conditions much more favorably than those in Sunni Ara b areas, and generally more in line with views in the mainly Shiite Sout h Majorities in Shiite and Sunni Arab areas do share some views, such as di scontent with the presence of US forces and perhaps crucially for Ir aq's future a desire to keep the country unified. But the degree diffe rs sharply for example, 88 percent of those in Sunni areas want a unif ied Iraq, compared with 56 percent in Shiite provinces. And on other mat ters, including fundamental political issues, Sunni/Shiite area views mo re directly conflict. Confidence in this week's elections is far lower in Sunni Arab areas 48 percent, compared with more than 80 percent in other groups but, give n Sunnis' broad disaffection, that could be worse. More threatening is t hat just 27 percent in Sunni areas approve of the constitution, compared to more than eight in 10 Iraqis in the rest of the country, Shiite, Kur dish and mixed areas alike. Such gaps between these groups seem to represent Iraq's greatest challeng e On issue after issue, from personal satisfaction to security to polit ical views, people in Sunni areas about one in four Iraqis express v astly more negative views than their Shiite- or Kurdish-area counterpart s Just 11 percent of people in predominantly Sunni-Arab provinces, for exam ple, feel safe in their own neighborhoods, compared with eight in 10 Ira qis in other areas. People in mainly Sunni-Arab areas are far less confi dent in the Iraqi government, army or police. They're half as likely as those in mainly Shiite provinces to say their own lives are going well a nd half as likely to expect things to improve in the next year. While 53 percent of people in predominantly Shiite areas say the country as a wh ole is doing well, a mere 9 percent of those in mostly Sunni provinces a gree. Growing Caps Rather than moving toward healing, the gaps between views in Sunni areas versus the rest of Iraq have widened sharply since early 2004, with atti tudes worsening in Sunni areas while improving elsewhere. While Iraqis i n Shiite, mixed and Kurdish provinces all rate the security situation, t heir job opportunities, and their family's protection from crime more po sitively than they did 20 months ago, those in Sunni provinces have grow n decidedly more negative. Similarly, while Iraqis' positive ratings of their lives overall look sta ble (71 percent today versus 70 percent in 2004), beneath those overall numbers is a 21-point improvement in Shiite areas and a 26-point decli ne in the outlook in Sunni provinces. The Sunni/Shiite gap has also grown on measures of confidence in key Iraq i institutions. While people in mainly Shiite provinces are 22 points mo re likely to have faith in the Iraqi army than they were in 2004, in mai nly Sunni areas confidence has fallen by 13 points; The divide in views of police similarly has increased by 23 points. As noted, both Sunni and Shiite communities oppose the presence of US a nd coalition forces, but views on the subject in Shiite areas have held steady over the past year and a half, while support for coalition forces in Sunni areas has gone from minimal, 24 percent, to near zero, 4 perce nt. Anbar Attitudes in Anbar a Sunni Arab-dominated province that's been a center of anti... |
| moveon.org -> www.moveon.org/front/ The Movie the White House Doesn't Want You to See On Memorial Day weekend, Hollywood is releasing a summer blockbuster movie that's making the Bush administration very nervous. Because it's a disaster movie about a potential climate crisis. While "The Day After Tomorrow" is more science fiction than science fact, everyone will be talking about it -- and asking "Could it really happen?" This is an unprecedented opportunity to talk to millions of Americans about the real dangers of global warming and expose President Bush's foot-dragging on the issue. Responding to Torture Reports and photographs of Iraqi prisoners being tortured and abused by US and British troops have shocked the world. We've got to support an immediate, independent, impartial and public investigation into all allegations of torture. To be credible, the investigation should be done by an international body, including representatives of Arab nations. We've got to get to the bottom of this, and we've got to do it now. Censure Bush for Misleading Us In an attempt to evade responsibility for the misleading statements that pushed the nation into war, Bush has announced plans to form an independent inquiry to look into what went wrong. An inquiry would serve the Bush administration well: it would envelop the issue in a fog of uncertainty, deflect blame onto the intelligence services, and delay any political damage until 2005, after the upcoming election. Despite repeated warnings from the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency, President Bush and his administration hyped and distorted the threat that Iraq posed. And now that reality is setting in, the President wants to pin the blame on someone else. Congress has the power to censure the President -- to formally reprimand him for betraying the nation's trust. MoveOn's 50 Ways to Love Your Country How to Find Your Political Voice and Become a Catalyst for Change Written by MoveOn members across the country, from Hawaii to Maine, from political figures to teachers, this collection of essays shares compelling personal stories and action items with resources for taking inspiration a step further. Simple ideas are illuminated, such as "His Last Vote," about a dying man's wish to cast a ballot, as are more dynamic actions, such as "Start a Petition," which chronicles a couple's quest to protect wolves from trappers in Alaska. MoveOn's 50 Ways to Love Your Country answers the question that more and more citizens are asking: "What can I do?" Protect our Kids from Mercury Pollution Under energy industry pressure, President Bushs EPA plans to defer controls on mercury emissions by power plants for at least a decade. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that 49 million women of childbearing age in the US -- that's 8 percent -- have unsafe levels of mercury in their blood. The people hit hardest will be new-born infants -- every year over 630,000 infants are born with levels of mercury in their blood so high they can cause brain damage. We have just a few weeks to get public comments to the EPA on this plan to defer mercury controls. It's time to tell the EPA and the White House that our kids come first. Al Gore Speaks on Global Warming and the Environment Beacon Theater, New York January 15, 2004, Noon In this, his third major speech sponsored by MoveOn, Mr Gore issued an indictment of the Bush administration's inaction on global warming, linking the issue to national security. He showed that global warming is not a future threat -- it is happening now. And yet, the President is choosing to help his coal- and oil-company supporters rather than advance modern technologies that can affordably solve this critical problem. Support Kerry's call to fire Rumsfeld May 7, 2004 In the wake of revelations of torture and abuse of Iraqi prisoners, John Kerry has launched an important petition calling for President Bush to fire Donald Rumsfeld. Getting rid of Secretary Rumsfeld would be a huge step forward for all of us who oppose the Bush war policy, and Kerry needs to hear our support. Help win the election this Saturday May 3, 2004 This Saturday, we're joining other grassroots groups in the largest day of voter mobilization in American history. MoveOn members will gather at parties across the country to make over 100,000 phone calls in one afternoon to swing state voters. In an election that could be won or lost with a handful of votes, we'll work to turn out every last progressive voter and send George Bush packing. |