12/13   Hello self proclaimed stock gurus. It's time to prove yourselves
        that you are a true guru by winning the motd stock contest. Entering
        the contest is easy: predict the Google stock price in 6 months,
        1 year, and 2 year intervals from now. To receive the title of a
        True Motd Stock Guru, you must sign your real name. I will
        start.
        \_ dunno about goog but made killing on EMRG (in at .36)
        \_ 420, 350, 300                                -junior
        \_ Anyone who claims to be able to predict the price of a stock
           with as much immaturity and volatility as Google is not
           an investment guru.  -tom
           \_ why do I have to agree with tom.  Let's not predict price.
              Just choose stocks.
              \_ yes, choosing stocks is better, but usually, to win,
                 one has to do a risky bet (eg. all oil stocks) and
                 then has some luck.  A more reasonable portfolio
                 would finish above average but will not win.
                 \_ to win what?
                    \_ best performing portfolio of the year.
                       \_ Investing is a marathon, not a 100-yard dash.  If you
                          treat it as a sprint, you're more likely to end up
                          screwed or breaking even.  *You* might have gotten
                          lucky, but as an investment strategy this is fuck
                          stupid.
                          \_ One year is a very reasonable time frame to
                             judge stock picking performance.  Good long
                             term investors may not beat the market each
                             month, but they tend to beat the market year
                             after year, with a bad year once in a while.
                             \_ one year is not enough.  Ten year is more
                                accurate.  You can evaluate trading, and
                                position trading in one year, but not
                                long term investing.
                                \_ well, you need to make an evaluation
                                   or judgement call at least once a
                                   year in my opinion.  But you do need
                                   to consistently make good calls for
                                   several years at least before you can
                                   be considered a good investor, so I
                                   don't disagree with you.
                                \_ A stock can easily appreciate 20% in a
                                   few weeks, turning it from undervalued
                                   to fully valued, and hence a candidate
                                   for selling.  This is called value
                                   investing.  It's not trading.
        \_ 50% GAGEX, 50% VGPMX.  Up 55% and 32% respectively and I think they
           will go higher, especially GAGEX.
           \_ PBR 79% gain since 12/27/04.
              \_ That's a single stock.  GAGEX and VGPMX are mutual funds, in
                 energy and precious metals.
                 \_ Yes, but I am not sure if GAGEX is necessarily less
                    volatile since it is highly dependent on the price of a
                    single thing: crude.
           \_ ILF up 66%, BZF up 74%, EWY up 44%, CEE up 64%. But I only hold
              about 10% in each. You are holding too much risk with an
              undiversified portfolio like that for my taste.
        \_ why not join http://marketocracy.com
        \_ can you play if you're a GOOG employee?