12/6    Giving this its own thread:
        I'm curious about other people's thoughts on this.  How strongly
        ingrained do you think the current government/military in Iraq will
        be?  I.e., when we leave, how resistant will it be to neighboring
        influences?  How incorporated are the national vs. local governing
        systems going to be?  The reason I ask is that I suspect our
        attempts at instituting a government from the top down are going
        to result in a papier-mache veneer while the religious leaders, who
        have strong, direct, authorititative local ties, gather control.
        --scotsman
        \_ once we leave, its' kurds. vs. shia vs. sunni.  ROUUND 1, FIGHT!
           \_ I wonder if anyone's considered the strategic benefits of letting
              middle eastern states develop all the nukes they want, just not
              long-range delivery systems.
                \_ who needs a delivery system? just use a barge.  manned
                   delivery systems (ala suicide bombing) is their specialty.
                        \_ Hell, all they have to do is stick it in an oil
                           tanker.
                \_ Neutron bombs would be better than nukes. It would be
                   to hard to get at the oil if they nuked each other.
                   Seriously, there is enough incentive to avoid control
                   by Iran or another Saddam that things in Iraq might
                   work out.  It might not be as nice as Turkey, but it
                   could be okay.  Just focusing on Iraq, I think, misses
                   the big picture and that is the democratic squeeze on
                   Iran and Pakistan.
                \_ We should give them Neutron Bombs. Regular nukes might
                   make it hard to work the oil fields.
                   Seriously though, I think that the Iraqis might make
                   this thing work b/c the alternative is oppression at
                   the hands of Iran or another Saddam. Maybe it won't
                   be as nice as Turkey, but it could still work out ok.
                   Just focusing on Iraq, I think, misses the bigger
                   picture and that is the squeeze on Iran and Pakistan.
        \_ traditionally, there is a sort of proxy ideology war between
           Shia vs. Sunni.  Traditionally, Iran is a strong Shia backer,
           but most successful of all, it's Saudi's backing of Sunni.
           Saudi used to fund Sunni dominated regime, and fund all sort of
           islamic school which teaches Sunni sect.  The problem with this
           Iraq thing is that Saudi is kind of in trouble on its own and
           can't really provide support for the Sunni in Iraq.  So, we are
           looking at Sunni will be eventually get squashed.
           \_ Nononononono!  The Saudi position remains unchanged.  They
              still fund militant wahabiism both inside and outside Saudi
              Arabia with both private and public funds from the royal family.
              Where'd you get the idea anything at all has changed in that
              regard, they're "in trouble" (whatever that means) in their
              own country or they can't support anything outside their own
              country?  If that were true, a lot of people would stop pointing
              at Saudi Arabia as a prime source of terrorist funding that
              needed a good ass kicking.  The Shia are campaigning hard for
              the elections on the 15th.  Why should they have to squash
              anyone when they're the majority population?  That makes no
              sense.  The Kurds only issue is how much oil falls under their
              regional control.  The Sunnis are the only ones with something
              to lose because they had too much before and there aren't enough
              of them insane enough to form anything more than small terrorist
              groups blowing up markets and election lines.  A country of 26MM
              people can survive with a few suicide bombers every week forever,
              however that doesn't seem to be an effective long term method if
              the government and people can hold out as Israel has shown.
              \_ In the end, it will be who controls the oil will control the
                 country. The question is will there be an actual country to
                 control or will it be nominally diced into a federation of
                 states of Kuridstan, Iraq, and Poor-Assed-Sunni-stan. There
                 is a question of how much factionalism exists. Will Iraq be
                 akin to Afghanistan?