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| 11/22 |
| 2005/12/5-6 [Science/GlobalWarming, Politics/Foreign/MiddleEast/Iran, Politics/Foreign/MiddleEast/Others] UID:40850 Activity:high |
12/5 http://csua.org/u/e66 (Washington Post, Aug 2 2005) "A major U.S. intelligence review has projected that Iran is about a decade away from manufacturing the key ingredient for a nuclear weapon ... in line with recently revised British and Israeli figures." http://news.independent.co.uk/world/asia/article331219.ece (Dec 4 2005) "Although IAEA officials have said it would take at least two years for Natanz to become fully operational, Mr ElBaradei believes that once the facility is up and running, the Iranians could be 'a few months' away from a nuclear weapon." http://csua.org/u/e67 (jpost.com, Dec 5 2005) "IAEA chairman Muhammad ElBaradei on Monday confirmed Israel's assessment that Iran is only a few months away from creating an atomic bomb." So, uh ... what exactly changed between August 2nd, 2005 and now? \_ Nothing has changed - the IAEA has always been completely inept. \_ Nothing has changed - the IAEA has always been completely inept as have most of our politicized intelligence agencies (e.g. State and the CIA, glaringly exposed in the Plame case). It should not be any surpise then that we missed WTCI and II, Pakistan, India, Libya, Cole, Sudan, WMD in GWI, etc... The point is not whether Iran is months away from a bomb, they probably have that now. Rather, the key question is whether they have a nuclear tipped Shahab-3. probably have that now. Rather, the key question is whether they have a nuclear tipped Shahab-3. Those nuclear bunker busters and theater missile defense sure sound like a good idea now eh? Thank you Jimmy Carter \_ bunkerbuster bombs dont work, study your physics. \_ Yeah, I'm sure those dead people agree. \_ tell that to all those women and children hiding in the baby milk factory. \_ I'm glad you brought that up. Those signs looked believable to me. \_ What? You don't believe a sign written in English in the middle of Iraq that says, "BABY MILK FACTORY! DO NOT BOMB HERE YOU EVIL AMERICAN PIG DOGS!"? \_ I would agree that IAEA is completely inept. I mean, they should of pressure USA and Russia to disarm their nuclear weapons as part of the deal too. Instead, it is single-mindly focusing on those who want to join the nuclear club. \_ Uhm... what? \_ Dunno but guessing: new intelligence info? The world isn't static. \_ Maybe the recent story about Iran buying nuclear tech from North Korea for oil \_ This post is so partisan I don't know what to say. \_ Yeah, he forgot the part about the CIA missing the fall of the USSR, since spying on the Soviets and knowing what was going on was the reason for the CIA to exist the last 50+ years. \_ you didn't know that USA and Russia suppose to disarm as part of NPT, don't you? \_ you mean article 6? re-read it. \_ honestly, I don't see any danger of Iran having nuclear weapon. If anything, India/Pakistein poses more danger simply because one \- is that the Jewish part of Pakistan? of them have the incentive to use it in a conflict. |
| 11/22 |
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| csua.org/u/e66 -> www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/01/AR2005080101453_pf.html com Iran Is Judged 10 Years From Nuclear Bomb US Intelligence Review Contrasts With Administration Statements By Dafna Linzer Washington Post Staff Writer Tuesday, August 2, 2005; A01 A major US intelligence review has projected that Iran is about a decad e away from manufacturing the key ingredient for a nuclear weapon, rough ly doubling the previous estimate of five years, according to government sources with firsthand knowledge of the new analysis. The carefully hedged assessments, which represent consensus among US in telligence agencies, contrast with forceful public statements by the Whi te House. Administration officials have asserted, but have not offered p roof, that Tehran is moving determinedly toward a nuclear arsenal. The n ew estimate could provide more time for diplomacy with Iran over its nuc lear ambitions. President Bush has said that he wants the crisis resolve d diplomatically but that "all options are on the table." The new National Intelligence Estimate includes what the intelligence com munity views as credible indicators that Iran's military is conducting c landestine work. But the sources said there is no information linking th ose projects directly to a nuclear weapons program. What is clear is tha t Iran, mostly through its energy program, is acquiring and mastering te chnologies that could be diverted to bombmaking. The estimate expresses uncertainty about whether Iran's ruling clerics ha ve made a decision to build a nuclear arsenal, three US sources said. Still, a senior intelligence official familiar with the findings said th at "it is the judgment of the intelligence community that, left to its o wn devices, Iran is determined to build nuclear weapons." At no time in the past three years has the White House attributed its ass ertions about Iran to US intelligence, as it did about Iraq in the run -up to the March 2003 invasion. Instead, it has pointed to years of Iran ian concealment and questioned why a country with as much oil as Iran wo uld require a large-scale nuclear energy program. The NIE addresses those assertions and offers alternative views supportin g and challenging the assumptions they are based on. Those familiar with the new judgments, which have not been previously detailed, would discu ss only limited elements of the estimate and only on the condition of an onymity, because the report is classified, as is some of the evidence on which it is based. Top policymakers are scrutinizing the review, several administration offi cials said, as the White House formulates the next steps of an Iran poli cy long riven by infighting and competing strategies. For three years, t he administration has tried, with limited success, to increase pressure on Iran by focusing attention on its nuclear program. Those efforts have been driven as much by international diplomacy as by the intelligence. The NIE, ordered by the National Intelligence Council in January, is the first major review since 2001 of what is known and what is unknown about Iran. Additional assessments produced during Bush's first term were nar row in scope, and some were rejected by advocates of policies that were inconsistent with the intelligence judgments. One such paper was a 2002 review that former and current officials said w as commissioned by national security adviser Stephen J Hadley, who was then deputy adviser, to assess the possibility for "regime change" in Ir an. Those findings described the Islamic republic on a slow march toward democracy and cautioned against US interference in that process, said the officials, who would describe the paper's classified findings only on the condition of anonymity. The new estimate takes a broader approach to the question of Iran's polit ical future. But it is unable to answer whether the country's ruling cle rics will still be in control by the time the country is capable of prod ucing fissile material. The administration keeps "hoping the mullahs wil l leave before Iran gets a nuclear weapons capability," said an official familiar with policy discussions. Intelligence estimates are designed to alert the president of national se curity developments and help guide policy. The new Iran findings were de scribed as well documented and well written, covering such topics as mil itary capabilities, expected population growth and the oil industry. The assessments of Iran's nuclear program appear in a separate annex to the NIE known as a memorandum to holders. "It's a full look at what we know, what we don't know and what assumption s we have," a US source said. Until recently, Iran was judged, according to February testimony by Vice Adm. Lowell E Jacoby, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, to b e within five years of the capability to make a nuclear weapon. Since 19 95, US officials have continually estimated Iran to be "within five ye ars" from reaching that same capability. The new estimate extends the timeline, judging that Iran will be unlikely to produce a sufficient quantity of highly enriched uranium, the key in gredient for an atomic weapon, before "early to mid-next decade," accord ing to four sources familiar with that finding. The sources said the shi ft, based on a better understanding of Iran's technical limitations, put s the timeline closer to 2015 and in line with recently revised British and Israeli figures. The estimate is for acquisition of fissile material, but there is no firm view expressed on whether Iran would be ready by then with an implosion device, sources said. The timeline is portrayed as a minimum designed to reflect a program movi ng full speed ahead without major technical obstacles. It does not take into account that Iran has suspended much of its uranium-enrichment work as part of a tenuous deal with Britain, France and Germany. Iran announ ced yesterday that it intends to resume some of that work if the Europea n talks fall short of expectations. Sources said the new timeline also reflects a fading of suspicions that I ran's military has been running its own separate and covert enrichment e ffort. But there is evidence of clandestine military work on missiles an d centrifuge research and development that could be linked to a nuclear program, four sources said. nuclear inspectors, based on drawings obtained last November. The do cuments include design modifications for Iran's Shahab-3 missile to make the room required for a nuclear warhead, US and foreign officials sai d "If someone has a good idea for a missile program, and he has really good connections, he'll get that program through," said Gordon Oehler, who r an the CIA's nonproliferation center and served as deputy director of th e presidential commission on weapons of mass destruction. "But that does n't mean there is a master plan for a nuclear weapon." The commission found earlier this year that US intelligence knows "dist urbingly little" about Iran, and about North Korea. Much of what is known about Tehran has been learned through analyzing com munication intercepts, satellite imagery and the work of UN inspectors who have been investigating Iran for more than two years. Inspectors un covered facilities for uranium conversion and enrichment, results of plu tonium tests, and equipment bought illicitly from Pakistan -- all of whi ch raised serious concerns but could be explained by an energy program. Inspectors have found no proof that Iran possesses a nuclear warhead des ign or is conducting a nuclear weapons program. The NIE comes more than two years after the intelligence community assess ed, wrongly, in an October 2002 estimate that then-Iraqi President Sadda m Hussein had weapons of mass destruction and was reconstituting his nuc lear program. The judgments were declassified and made public by the Bus h administration as it sought to build support for invading Iraq five mo nths later. Michael V Hayden, deputy director of national intelligence, said that new rules recently were imp osed for crafting NIEs and that there would be "a higher tolerance for a mbiguity," even if it meant producing estimates with less definitive con clusions. The Iran NIE, sources said, includes creative analysis and ... |
| news.independent.co.uk/world/asia/article331219.ece Asia UN chief urges West and Iran to cool brinkmanship over nuclear programme By Anne Penketh in Vienna Published: 05 December 2005 The head of the UN nuclear watchdog, Mohamed ElBaradei, has appealed to b oth Iran and the West to refrain from escalating their dangerous game of brinkmanship, which has entered an unpredictable phase after the electi on of a hardline Iranian president. Talks between Iran and the European Union, which has been leading negotia tions aimed at preventing the Iranians from building a nuclear bomb, bro ke down in August, when the Iranians resumed nuclear-related activities at their Isfahan plant. The main hope of resuming the dialogue now resides in compromise proposal s from Russia, which is offering to enrich uranium for Iran outside its territory. Uranium enrichment is the critical stage in nuclear power whi ch can produce weapons grade fuel. In an interview in his 28th floor office at IAEA headquarters overlooking the Danube in Vienna, Mr ElBaradei noted that Iran has not rejected the Russian proposal outright, and he said he expected "talks about talks" to be held before next month. But he warned that if Iran carries out a threat to reopen its mothballed Natanz underground enrichment plant, a dangerous escalation will ensue, and raise fresh questions about Iran's insistence that its nuclear inten tions are peaceful. "If they start enriching this is a major issue and a serious concern for the international community," he said. Although IAEA officials have said it would take at least two years for Na tanz to become fully operational, Mr ElBaradei believes that once the fa cility is up and running, the Iranians could be "a few months" away from a nuclear weapon. "That's why there is the concern of the international community about Iran," he said, "because lots of people feel it could b e a dual purpose programme". Did he believe the Iranians were building a nuclear weapon? We're still going through the programme to make sure it's all for peaceful purposes. I know that acqui ring the full fuel cycle means that a country is months away from nuclea r weapons, and that applies to Iran and everybody else." Mr ElBaradei said he could see no victors from an escalation. "Everybody would hurt," he said, referring to all parties in the dispute. and at the end of the day you have to go back to the negotiating table to find the solution." Israel has warned that it will not tolerate a nuclear-armed Iran, and has hinted that it would take preemptive action as it did in Iraq when it b ombed the Osiraq reactor in 1980. The Prime Minister, Ariel Sharon, repe ated yesterday that "it's clear we can't have a situation where Iran wil l become a nuclear power". Iran's President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has pu blicly called for Israel to be "wiped off the map". President George Bush insists that all options remain on the table, but t he reality is that the US already has its hands full in Iraq. So for now, the Bush administration is prepared to let Britain, France an d Germany continue to take the lead and seek a negotiated solution. The EU troika remains adamant that Iran should be barred from controlling it s own nuclear fuel cycle - even under international supervision - and th e threat of referral to the UN Security Council remains an option for th e IAEA board of governors. But it is generally believed that Iran holds all the cards at this point. If referred to the Security Council, the Iranians could use their oil-c harged political influence to prevent any punitive action. And there rem ains the fear that the mullahs would pull out of the Nuclear Non-Prolife ration Treaty, following the lead of North Korea which is believed to ha ve enough weapons grade plutonium for at least six bombs. While IAEA officials recognise that progress has been made in the EU nego tiations, the talks so far have only bought time. Despite the developments in Iran and North Korea, Mr ElBaradei said the m ost worrying nuclear threat came from the prospect of nuclear terrorism. "The deterrence concept does not apply in the case of terrorists. That is the most critical danger we are facing now because there is a lot of nuclear material and nuclear facilities that need to be adequately prote cted." He was talking about the possibility of a "dirty bomb" which could spread radiation and create widespread panic, or the theft of a nuclear weapon . Although he said that such a scenario was "highly unlikely", the count ries where the risk was greatest, he said without the slightest hint of irony, were those such as Iraq and Afghanistan where governments are not in control of their territory. Mr ElBaradei, an Egyptian lawyer, has not always got on with the Bush adm inistration which tried to block him from serving a second term as IAEA chief. He was after all the man who publicly demolished one of the centr al planks of the US argument for war on Iraq by revealing in the Securit y Council that documents purporting to show that the Iraqis had attempte d to procure uranium from Niger were fakes. IAEA inspectors trying to un ravel the biggest ever network of black market nuclear trafficking are s till being refused access to the scientist at the centre of the scandal, A Q Khan, from Pakistan, an important US ally in the "war on terror". Mr ElBaradei's credibility and authority have been reinforced by the awar d in October of the Nobel Peace Prize, an accolade which has added to hi s workload. Tomorrow, he will be in London to address the International Institute for Strategic Studies on his ideas for controlling the headlon g rush for nuclear power, in particular the uranium enrichment process. "If you have that capacity you are also buying yourself a smart insurance policy. You are sending a very powerful message to your neighbour - you don't even need to have the weapon," he said. He is calling for the IAE A to control a multilateral "fuel bank" a move intended to remove the ju stification for countries to develop indigenous fuel cycle capabilities - the issue at the heart of the dispute with Iran. Mr ElBaradei and the IAEA will receive their Nobel award on Saturday at a ceremony in Oslo. |
| csua.org/u/e67 -> www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1132475683499&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull JPost ePaper IAEA chairman Muhammad ElBaradei on Monday confirmed Israel's assessment that Iran is only a few months away from creating an atomic bomb. If Teheran indeed resumed its uranium enrichment in other plants, as thre atened, it will take it only "a few months" to produce a nuclear bomb, E l-Baradei told The Independent. On the other hand, he warned, any attempt to resolve the crisis by non-di plomatic means would "open a Pandora's box. and at the end of the day you have to go back to the negotiating table to find the solution." |
| jpost.com -> www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/P/FrontPage/FrontPage&cid=1002116796299 MARGOT DUDKEVITCH Soldiers resumed searching for the remains of two of their comrades killed in an attack on their APC. IDF to widen Philadelphia Corridor The corridor, along the Egypt-Gaza border, is one of the most violent flashpoints in the conflict. COM STAFF Ra'ad Abu-Daher was responsible for planning suicide attacks in the Jerusalem vicinity. YAAKOV KATZ The decision-making process that led to the imprisonment of three Israeli Arabs was unflawed. COM STAFF The organization has rejected a call by Yesha to delay a rally in Tel Aviv for Gaza withdrawal. RUTHIE BLUM Adults find out that 'Parents Day is where officers show a parent what their child is being groomed for. AMOTZ ASA-EL Netanyahu has given us no reason to believe he is seriously interested in the disengagement plan. |