news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051109/ap_on_an/election_analysis
Bush put his wispy political prestige on the line in the Virginia governo r's race and lost Tuesday when the candidate he embraced in a last-minut e campaign stop was soundly defeated. While there are many reasons for J erry Kilgore's defeat, chief among them his poor campaign, giddy Democra ts said the Virginia race as well as a Democratic victory in New Jersey prove that Bush is a political toxin for Republicans.
"Republicans are not so angry at the president that they want to vote for the other guy. Others noted that Bush battled conservative allies over Miers' failed Su preme Court nomination and has drawn criticism from within the GOP ranks for government spending. "The one bright spot for my party," joked Republican Gov. Mike Huckabee o f Arkansas, "is that the tab for the victory party at the Republican hea dquarters will be much smaller than if we had won." Huckabee, head of the National Governors Association, said off-year elect ions in New Jersey and Virginia don't necessarily portend the next year' s results. Virginia has not even been a reliable reflection of the national politica l environment. In 2001, Warner won election in 2001 when Bush had an 87 percent approval rating shortly after the Sept.
President Clinton 's approval ratings were at nearly 60 percent. At least Virginia is a Republican state that Bush won by 9 percentage poi nts a year ago, making it fair barometer of the president's political de cline.
voting reco rd) an easy victory over Republican Doug Forrester, most New Jersey vote rs said Bush was not a factor in their choices, according to an AP-Ipsos survey of 1,280 New Jersey voters Tuesday. Still, Corzine thanked voters "for rejecting the Bush-Rove tactics we see in politics," referring to Karl Rove, the president's top political str ategist. Of the 20 percent of New Jersey who said they voted in part to show oppos ition to the president, the most disaffected were young voters, women, b lacks and low-income voters. The president's job approval among New Jers ey voters was 35 percent, slightly lower than an AP-Ipsos national poll last week. Tim Kaine led Kilgore by about 5 percentage points, with most of the precincts reporting. He trounced Kilgore in Democratic northern Virginia and even bested him the far-flung suburbs of Loudoun and Prince William counties, winning in places where Warner had lost fou r years ago. Democrats would like to think those results show that Bush energized thei r voters in northern Virginia and depressed GOP turnout in exurbia. Just a year ago, Bush dominated in the outer suburbs, winning 97 of the nati on's 100 fastest growing counties. Kaine campaigned hard i n exurban areas, promising to curb urban sprawl. There were other local issues, including the death penalty. A Kilgore ad alleged that Kaine's opposition to the death penalty meant he would not have executed Adolf Hilter. Kaine, a Roman Catholic, pledged to enforce the death penalty but said he would not apologize for his religious beli efs. They also said he failed to connect with voters, particularly on TV, and said Kilgore's liberal vs. So was it local issues or national ones that sunk Kilogre? "We can always go too far, and frequently do," said University of Virgini a political scientist Larry Sabato. But i t's unadulterated bad news for Bush and the Republican Party and great n ews for Democrats as they attempt to make a comeback in 2006." Polls had Kilgore tied with Kaine headed into the final day when Bush fle w from Panama to Virginia and laid his bets. It was a risky decision, en suring that the president would be blamed for a Kilgore defeat. White Ho use officials said Bush might as well go because in the current environm ent he would be blamed anyhow.
The informati on contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewr itten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associ ated Press.
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