11/1    Hello I'm a newbie shopping for a condo. I've been doing research
        lately and saw this 400 unit complex I like. According to Google's
        cache, in August they only have 50 units left. Looking at
        their current web site however, they still say they only have 50
        units left. I called them up, and sure enough, 50. What's going on?
        \_ we're not psychic. why don't you call them up again and ask?
           \_ Ok I just called them up. They said 1/2 of the units are
              "reserved" so they can't sell them. Whatever that means.
              \_ that means that they adjust the reserve over time such that
                 there are always <= 50 units left
              \_ uh, how about you ask followup questions until you're not
                 confused anymore?  i mean ask the condo people, not the
                 motd.
                 \_ Maybe op is afraid of condo folks thinking op is stupid.
                    Here at the motd, we assume it.
                    \_ I'm the op. Yes, after making a few stupid calls
                       the condo people started to realize how stupid and
                       desperate I seemed and raised the prices by about
                       20K for a 500K condo. This is exactly why I don't
                       want to keep calling them, because it shows how
                       badly I want their place.
        \_ maybe they're lying to you ...?
        \_ They haven't sold any more since then? They have, but some
           others fell out of escrow? What does it matter?
        \_ Housing market has cooled. Mostly people see it has topped out
           and are all selling so there is a huge amount of inventory on
           the market. Total sales are still going up but since so many houses
           are on the market prices are coming down a bit. Very very good time
           to buy.
           \_ Time to buy has passed. I wouldn't buy now.
              \_ (Pulling number out of hat): Let's say you're currently eyeing
                 a $700k house in the bay area.  What price would it have to
                 drop to before you'd buy it?  Assume you like the house, it
                 is a good location for you, etc.  Only price is the issue.
                 \_ Why is this an issue? I just need to exercise 1/2 of
                    my GOOG options and I can buy it cash next week.
                    \_ In that case, exercise all of your GOOG options,
                       and diversify.  Heck, you could easily retire if
                       you moved someplace cheaper.
                    \_ That's all you got from your options??  That's pretty
                       chincey.
                 \_ Do I already own a house? Is this for investment?
                    \_ Your call.  What $# is the right price for you?  With
                       all these people saying the numbers are too high, there
                       must be some lower number at which they don't feel that.
                       I'm just curious what that number is.
                       \_ If I already own a house I will buy cheaper than
                          if I don't. I'd say maybe $400K for an investment
                          and $500K or more if I don't own a house already.
                          I do think the price can (but will not necessarily)
                          retreat all the way to $400K. The time to buy
                          is when prices start to rise again after they've
                          fallen for a while (at least 3-4 years). The
                          number is less important than the direction of
                          the market, which is clearly down now. Cycles
                          are about 7-10 years, so I'd reanalyze the market
                          again in maybe 5 years. However, if I am renting
                          right now then I may buy as soon as I can
                          reasonably afford to make a 30 year fixed
                          mortgage on the place.
                          \_ thanks.  that's what i was looking for.
                 \_ I think even more important than price is the interest
                    rate and terms of the loan. Even if the price comes down,
                    it could become unaffordable quickly if the interest rate
                    jumps up or the amount of down payment is increased.
                    Back in '02, every 1/10th % increase meant $200 more per
                    month for a $400k loan.
                    \_ Ok, pick any reasonable rate you want.  How much would
                       you offer and feel ok?
                       \_ The depends on income does it not? If I'm making
                          $2M/year then I buy that $700K house now. If I'm
                          making $80K/year I wait.
                          \_ He's asking what you personally would pay now.
                             \_ That's useless information, because my
                                situation isn't yours or his. *Someone*
                                would pay $2M for it and *someone*
                                wouldn't pay over $100K.
                                \_ then apply your personal situation.  the
                                   on going topic has been about housing being
                                   over priced. fine. so all im asking is what
                                   do you consider "not over priced".  it isnt
                                   that hard.  sheesh.  nevermind then.
                                   \_ It's not that it is overpriced, but
                                      that we seem to be near a top. It
                                      will some day be worth even more
                                      than it is now, but that doesn't
                                      mean the time to buy is now with
                                      interest rates rising and sales
                                      cooling.