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FAST FORWARD Sun and Google: Publicity Ploy or Power Grab? A small strategic partnership may set off a seismic shift in the software industry's competitive landscape.
So far, Sun has merely agreed to distribute the Google Toolbar to consume rs who want it along with Suns own Java Runtime Environment (JRE). But i f Google and Sun do cooperate together more closely down the line this d eal will be seen as a major move. Sun president Jonathan Schwartz promis es such progress will come. He says that within 30 days the two companie s will announce more concrete ramifications of their partnership. Sun and Google are pushing for a fundamental shift toward web-based compu ting, and their partnership signals a competitive realignment in the sof tware industry. According to Sun's Schwartz, with whom I spoke after the press conference, the mere fact that Google and Sun were up on a stage together is deeply significant. Indeed, one of the most interesting and provocative aspects of this move is for Google to align itself with anyb ody. Up until now Google has been something of a corporate lone wolf.
To hear Schwartz tell it, we are seeing web-based software margina lize commercial proprietary client-based software like Microsoft Office. On the face of things, all we have here is a software distribution agreem ent, and a one-sided one at that. The free Google toolbar, which will be packaged with Sun's JRE, adds cool functions like language translation and spellchecking to web browsers. JRE is a platform for executing simpl e Java applications and works on just about every kind of computer there isfrom cellphones to set-top boxes. Google CEO Eric Schmidt claimed at the press conference that tens of mill ions of new users will get his toolbar. org, which is Sun's open-source desktop-productivity software. If Google did find some way to promote Ope nOffice to the 80 million unique visitors who visit its site each month, Microsoft could have a problem. OpenOffice thus far has been downloaded 52 million times. Mostly thats by users in poor parts of the world who like the fact that its free. Meanwhile, there are over 400 million users of Microsoft Office. Sun and Google are now embracing a new form of software which acquires mo st of its power from tapping into additional resources online.
If this approach to software catches on, the value of Microsofts operating system and applications would certainly decline. Microsoft already appears worried about this set of developments. For ins tance, in the companys reorganization last month, it paired the critical MSN service together with the Windows operating system. Id say thats pr obably because the two are now seen as having more to learn from one ano ther. As a result, functions that used to be in the desktop operating sy stem may migrate to MSN, the network service. While Microsoft wont confirm it, I believe the company understands the in exorable logic of the kind of services that Sun and Google talked about today. While Redmond's Vista operating system and Office 12 will certain ly be smash hits when they're released in 2006, there are an increasing number of users who want simpler capabilities that can be accessed remot ely on the net. Why should Microsoft leave it to others to provide such services? Theres a great tradition in business of cannibalizing ones own products in order to remain viable. I expect we will soon see Microsoft start offering more toolbar-type capabilities and other net services mu ch like those that Sun and Google are so excited about. It would be easy to see todays announcement as just a way for Sun alumnus Schmidt to lend some of Googles astonishing luster to his friends at th e long-suffering Sun, which hadnt had an operating profit for nine quart ers until this year. It is telling that the press release didnt even app ear on Googles website, only on Suns. For years the company has sai d, "The network is the computer," and Sun really does aim to make that a reality. These are people who have believed in something for a long tim e, and they see it now finally becoming real in companies like Google.
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When you press the "Post My Message" butto n, you are agreeing to accept and follow the terms of the agreement. Bruce 10/05 12:36 Both Schmidt and McNealy have competed only semi-successfully with Gates for years. Unless you think they are morons, they will have noted the ba sic MSFT strategy of giving away the cash cows of the other companies, o f "sucking out the oxygen." Both the business imperative, and the chance to repay the favor, will be incredibly tempting. They also have to be observing in Vista (and integratio n with Sharepoint of Office) to push competition out, and/or lock in MSF T's own flavor of client-server computing. Google can certainly say sinc erely they are thinking of next-generation computing, but they can't ign ore the current generation, either. Getting distribution of Google toolb ar is an incredible priority for the company, one they pay for, since th ey realize that MSFT will soon be bundling (distributing) their next gen eration stuff with Windows.
SirKnite 10/05 12:47 While I can see the business model suggested by a net application over de sktop, I would be VERY concerned about allowing a company such as GOOGLE to gain the kind of visibility to my information, such as could occur w ith a net based application such as a word processing or a spead sheet. Since they are in the information business this would be just to much of a temptation. We will provide you with a searchable database of your documents and we will provide security so that just you can have access to it.
jgm 10/05 12:47 "the mere fact that Google and Sun were up on a stage together is deeply significant" sure "deeply significant" is that Google is trying to save Sun from irrel evance, just like Google is helping NASA from bankruptcy...
kw 10/05 13:11 I find this enchantment with network based software ignorant of history. SUN started as a company dedicated to the idea of selling stand apart wo rkstations back in the '80's. People trying to use network resources generall y all work at the same time but system administrators never buy enough r esources to serve peak use only average use. In short, if the network is slow or unavailable and all your work and too ls are on a network server, you sit there doing nothing. But hey, it's an easy sell because you tell your customers that they won' t have to know anything and all responsibility for your own productivity is now on someone elses shoulders.
Bob 10/05 13:13 I can't help but note with wry amusement the use of the term "net service s" versus "web services". NET framework is a direct r ipoff of the Java Runtime Engine. I think it's pretty clear that Microso ft is aware that "the network is the computer" as well.
Miguel 10/05 14:07 I can't decide if this really is a meaningless partnership, or if there's something brewing below the surface... I'm hoping that Google is betting on Solaris longer term... it's go t the stability and standardization that Linux (relatively) lacks, and w ith a little bit of polishing and hardware/software support could truly challenge Microsoft on both the server and desktop fronts. Assuming of c ourse Sun's concept of "the network is the computer" has evolved from th e 90's idea of thin clients...
Robert Gates 10/05 14:28 I disagree that the Sun, Google deal is much ado about nothing. What you are seeing here is a building of the infrastructure. It is important to both Google and Sun to get as many computer systems as possible upgraded with the core components required to support their future technologies, hence the latest version of Java and the Google Desktop. Once a fair nu mber of systems are ready they will begin to deploy the technologies. Wh at we are seeing is not so much a direct threat to Microsoft but a chang e in the way we compute. Microsoft will be making many of their solution s ...
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