www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,1575399,00.html
The Guardian Diplomats in the Foreign Office are working frantically in private on wha t they refer to as the "exit ticket" from Iraq. In contrast to the official line that British forces will remain until th e job is done, the Foreign Office wants to engineer a set of circumstanc es in which both Britain and the US can begin to reduce troops next year . But the speed with which unrest and violence is growing is making this harder. Ambitions for Iraq are being drastically scaled down in private. A Foreig n Office source said the goal of the US administration to turn Iraq into a beacon of democracy in the Middle East had long ago been shelved. "We will settle for leaving behind an Iraqi democracy that is creaking alon g," the source said. In its aftermath, the Foreign Office put aside its reservations and turned to the problems of reconstruction. From May 2003, the month after the fall of Saddam Hussein, until this spr ing, the line at Foreign Office briefings to journalists in London and B aghdad was unremitting: that security was improving; that the media focu sed on violence in Baghdad and the central belt, ignoring the relative c alm in the other 90% of the country; and that the infrastructure was gra dually being rebuilt, again unreported. The tone and content are now a more realistic reflection of what is happening. Before the war, Washington saw Iraq not only as a likely beacon for democ racy but also as potentially a stable source of oil and a well-positione d strategic base. Reflecting lowered expectations, the source said the p riority for withdrawal was merely that "George Bush is not seen to have failed. He will have to have at least set Iraq on the road to democracy" . Iraqis are scheduled to vote on October 13 on a new constitution and i n December in a general election: allowing Mr Bush to claim he had put d own democratic roots. "The US does not want a lega cy of Iran having extended its influence over the Middle East," the sour ce said. The fear is of an Iran that has the capability in a few years o f acquiring a bomb, continues to have a say in Lebanon through Hizbullah , maintains close ties to Shia-controlled southern Iraq and has the pote ntial to wreak havoc there and in Saudia Arabia. The third is that Iraqi forces should be able to be responsible for law a nd order. The mood in the Ministry of Defence is not dissimilar to that in the Fore ign Office, although Downing Street still tends towards the bland briefi ngs, tinged with optimism. Relations between Jack Straw, who shared some reservations about the war, and Tony Blair can at times be tetchy. One Foreign Office source said that it was sometimes embarrassing to be in t he room with them. Mr Straw has said repeatedly that Britain will not jo in any war against Iran, aware that neither the cabinet nor the Labour p arty would accept it. The "drawdown" of troops would be done in stages, and the US wants to kee p four air bases in Iraq. But this is not part of some strategic plan fo r mastery of the Middle East. The Foreign Office plays it down, saying t he bases are less important than those in Gulf states such as Qatar and Bahrain. Like its other ambitions for Iraq, the US has scaled down this plan and Britain is happily backing it, in the hope of an early exit.
|
http://csua.com/feed/