9/19 Oh look, North Korea is saying they won't be disarming until they get a
light water reactor
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1487719/posts
\_ obviously the got the idea from the motd...
\_ The U.S. better get moving with a robust NPT prohibiting uranium
enrichment, plutonium creation, and a catch-all clause
prohibiting technology which can lead very quickly to a bomb.
The excuse I read 6-12 months ago with not doing a real NPT was
"it would take too long".
The U.S. has the answer, but just needs to follow through.
\_ Yes, clearly the problem with Iran and North Korea is that
the language in the non-proliferation treaty isn't complete
enough.
\_ dude, this latest agreement is not about N.Korea and its nukes,
it's about dubya get some headline with a positive spin.
\_ Interestingly this is the FIRST freerep. link that I have found
useful. I agree with many of the comments that basically state
"the north koreans will just use material in the reactors to
build more weapons and get another concession from the US."
-mrauser
\_ You need thousands of centrifuges to weaponize the enriched
uranium fuel used for light water reactors into a single bomb.
And, the enriched uranium would be fed to North Korea peacemeal,
given more as it used up more in the reactor.
On the other hand, North Korea already has enough plutonium for
eight bombs: As many as two bombs while they were playing with
their graphite reactors in three separate incidents '89-'91,
and six more since inspectors were kicked out in '02-now since
six bombs: As many as two bombs while they were playing with
their graphite reactor in three separate incidents in '89-'91,
their graphite reactors in three separate incidents '89-'91,
and four more since inspectors were kicked out in '02-now since
Dubya didn't want to finish building the light water reactors
Bubba promised back in '94 that would be done by '03 -- because
Kim Jong-il had confessed to a secret nuke program earlier in '02
(violating NPT) and Dubya didn't know what else to do.
\_ And this way they get FREE REACTOR. Do you believe that the
moment they unpack their shiny new peaceful toy, they're going
to spontaneously erupt into bursts of nuclear-abhorring song
and dance? (No, I can't see the Chinese doing anything but
pressuring the US into giving the reactor _before_ NK does
anything in return.) Bombs or not, they're a bunch of evil
little pests. -John
\_ You need thousands of centrifuges to enrich enough uranium
from light water reactors for a single bomb.
That's why people say that even if Iran kicked out all the
inspectors and went full-bore for bombs, it would take them
5-10 years for a bomb.
Bubba promised back in '94 that would be done by '03.
\_ The fun part is they don't need nukes to serious screw
with the world. A couple of hundred artillery shells would
put a serious damper to South Korea's economy, which
affects the US economy, and force the US to engage in
a third war front. It's goes downhill from there. In truth
the nukes or threat of nukes is what is keeping NK an
independant state.
\_ Personally, I think, without nukes, NK is a paper
tiger. Unlike Iraq, where are continued
unrest, resistance and bloodshed, for NK, once the
Kim regime is removed from power, the NK people
will happily welcome the SKoreans. The initial
attack could be destructive due to the
destruction could be destructive due to the
proximity of Seoul, but I wouldn't overestimate
\_ yup, who cares about civilian casualties
when they are not white.
the NK conventional forces. The conventional
war would probably last a little longer than
Iraq but not much. But yes, US will be really
stretched, but it won't be for very long. The
PLA would gether along the border in case of
unrest, etc., but it won't cross the Yalu. China
stretched, but it won't be for very long. China
would want to play a role in terms of establishing
influence, but really, there isn't too much that
it can do, without appearing very bad since
it can do, without appearing rather very bad since
the NK regime is morally, and literally, bankrupt,
and because China would want to maintain good
relations with S. Korea. Unfortunately, with
nukes, things become very scary. Mr. Kim knows
the above, that's why he will always keep his
nukes, unless and until he can transform NK, and
be viewed as some sort of authoritarian modernizer in
the mold of Deng, Putin, Chiang Chingguo, Lee
Kuan Yew, etc., but I doubt he has what it takes,
and because unlike the other countries, there is
a dynamic, succesful, equal-sized South Korea whose
existence make a mockery of the legitimacy of his
regime. Still, with nukes, the prudent thing for
the surrounding countries to do, is to find a way
out for Kim somehow. China will probably offer
him a villa somewhere in China if his regime falls,
but it would still be a hot potato for China if
a united Korea demands his arse back.
\_ They've been selling rockets like hot cakes,
I thought. I would imagine that Pakistan
proved pretty conclusively that states which
want to be evil little shitbags will be so,
regardless of "rational". I don't understand
why the US doesn't just walk away from the
table and let Japan, the Chinese and S. Korea
handle it--they seem to think themselves well
capable of it. -John
\_ NK will only negotiate with the US for
some crazy reason.
\_ The thing is, China, S.
Korea and Japan doesn't care as much as
the US as to whether Pakistan has
rockets or not.
\_ Exactly, and that's part of the problem-
China wants to play regional superpower,
and uses N. Korea as a check to US power.
S. Korea/Japan need US protection on a
strategic level, but not on an immediate
level, so they don't realize the importance
of a balance to the Chinese, and India
seems like they find the US pathetic. The
logical conclusion seems either to leave
them to sort their shit out, or to let
themselves blow each other to kingdom come.
If the US can resolve (ha ha) the tiny
issue of energy dependency on the middle
east and central asia, pulling out would be
the best option. -John
a united Korea demands his arse back.
\_ genau und der ist ein Teil des Problems
China regionalen Superpower spielen möchte
und benutzt N. Korea da eine Überprüfung
zur US Energie. S. Korea/Japan
Notwendigkeit US Schutz auf einem
strategischen Niveau, aber nicht auf einem
sofortigen Niveau, also sie verwirklichen
den Wert einer Balance nicht zum Chinesen,
und Indien scheint, wie sie die US
pathetisch finden. Die logische
Zusammenfassung scheint entweder, sie zu
lassen, um ihre Scheiße heraus zu
sortieren, oder lassen Sie sich zum
Königreich sich durchbrennen kommen. Wenn
die US (ja ja) die kleine Ausgabe der
Energieabhängigkeit auf dem Mittler-Osten
und dem zentralen Asien beheben können,
würde das Ausziehen die beste Wahl sein.
Heil Hitler! - John
\- demurring on the paper tiger question, they can
still sell stuff to non-paper tigers. and they dont
have to sell fully functioning nuclear icbms to be
a problem. say the regime falls aparts and somewhere
you find a receipt for delivery of a couple of kg
of highly radioactive material to Mr. Albert Queda
(i dunno if they have made ricin or other low tech
chem/bio agents) what happens then? this would not
be the rational behavior of a state, but the side
effect of anarchy.
\_ Come to think of it, yes, things could be
a little thorny especially since it's not just
Kim, but an entire NK generals, officials
ruling class. As much as it's a pain to see
justice compromised, it's always a good idea
to assure them their safety, and a role to
play in a united korea. Not doing that for
the Baath Party members and Iraqi Army officers
is one of the biggest mistakes US made.
the Baath Party / Iraqi Army officals is one
of the biggest mistakes US made, in my opinion.
Still to the people of NK, South Koreans are
their brothers, unlike the relationship
between Iraqis and Pax Americana, so there
won't be much resistance once the regime
falls.
out for Kim somehow.
between Iraqis and Pax Americana.
\_ You know that the capital of S.Korea is
within the artillery range of N.Korean, right?
can you imagine what would happened to S.Korean's
economy if they suffered just a hour of bombardment?
(~60% S.Korean population lives in Seoul)
Do you care if hundreds of thousands
of refugee across the Yalu river to Chinese border?
Do you really think S.Korea has the will and economy
to absorb N.Korea? Chances are, you don't care.
Since the Korean War, US only wanted one thing:
the collapse of N.Korea regime. Mean while the
Chinese/S.Koreans, being at N.Koreans, has a lot
of pratical things they need to worry about. This
is why S.Korean's stance is more aligned with the
Chinese. US need to think about WHY S.Koreans,
being an ally with USA for past 5 decades, is
deviating from USA in terms of N.Korea policy.
*FURTHER* I was hoping Iraq would taught USA
a lesson of post-war planning...
\_ You know that the capital of S.Korea is
within the artillery range of N.Korean, right?
can you imagine what would happened to S.Korean's
economy if they suffered just a hour of bombardment?
(~60% S.Korean population lives in Seoul)
Do you care if hundreds of thousands
of refugee across the Yalu river to Chinese border?
Do you really think S.Korea has the will and economy
to absorb N.Korea? Chances are, you don't care.
Since the Korean War, US only wanted one thing:
the collapse of N.Korea regime. Mean while the
Chinese/S.Koreans, being at N.Koreans, has a lot
of pratical things they need to worry about. This
is why S.Korean's stance is more aligned with the
Chinese. US need to think about WHY S.Koreans,
being an ally with USA for past 5 decades, is
deviating from USA in terms of N.Korea policy.
*FURTHER* I was hoping Iraq would taught USA
a lesson of post-war planning...
\_ That was sort of my point above--the Chinese
have a stake in what happens, while the US is
obviously just playing neo-imperialist games.
Maybe China should be left to figure out how to
deal with N. Korea. Regarding refugees, they
generally tend to stream away from the direction
the artillery's coming from... -John |
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