Berkeley CSUA MOTD:Entry 39075
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2025/07/08 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
7/8     

2005/8/9-11 [Reference/RealEstate] UID:39075 Activity:nil
8/9     Housing market collapses in San Diego:
        http://www.thespoof.com/news/spoof.cfm?headline=s8i8827
        \_ The spoof isn't that funny IMO.
           Real article:  http://csua.org/u/czc
2025/07/08 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
7/8     

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2013/8/1-10/28 [Reference/RealEstate] UID:54722 Activity:nil
8/1     Suppose your house is already paid off and you retire at 65.
        How much expense does one expect to spend a year, in the Bay
        Area? Property tax will be about $10K/year for a modest $850K
        home. What about other stuff?
        \_ I think at age 65, health insurance is the next biggest expense.
        \_ I am thinking that we can have a nice middle class
	...
2013/7/31-9/16 [Reference/RealEstate, Finance/Investment] UID:54720 Activity:nil
7[31    Suppose you have a few hundred thousand dollars in the bank earning
        minimum interest rate and you're not sure whether you're going to
        buy a house in 1-5 years. Should one put that money in a more
        risky place like Vanguard ETFs and index funds, given that the
        horizon is only 1-5 years?
        \_ I have a very similar problem, in that I have a bunch of cash
	...
2013/6/3-7/23 [Reference/RealEstate] UID:54685 Activity:nil
6/3     Why are "real estate" and "real property" called so?  Does the part
        "real" mean something like "not fake"?
        \- without going into a long discourse into common law,
           it is to distinguish land/fixed property from intangible
           property [like a patent] and movable, personal property,
           like your car. Real property has historically had special
	...
2013/3/11-4/16 [Reference/RealEstate] UID:54622 Activity:nil
3/10    I'm trying to help my parents, in their mortgage there's an
        "escrow" amount. What exactly is this? From reading Google,
        the loan company uses the escrow account to pay for home
        insurance, but they've been paying home insurance themselves.
        I'm really confused on what this fee is.
        \_ Without an escrow account, you write checks to your insurance
	...
2013/2/19-3/26 [Reference/RealEstate] UID:54610 Activity:nil
2/19    I just realized that my real estate broker has a PhD in plant
        molecular cell biology from an Ivy League school in the mid 70s.
        Now she has to deal with a bunch of young dot-comers, and they're
        pain in the ass.                        -Only a BS in EEC$
        \_ My agent used to be a hardware engineer.  He switched to real estate
           when he got laid off during the 80's.  Now he's doing very well.
	...
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www.thespoof.com/news/spoof.cfm?headline=s8i8827
Many have warned about the crashing housing market SAN DIEGO (ARF) When the housing market was white-hot only 8 months ago, Alex Flapper could buy a luxury downtown condo in San Diego, California with as little as $50 down and sell it one month later for a staggering profit of $4,000,000. But Flapper now says those easy money days are lon g gone and never coming back. Im really stuck up the creek with a lot of property Im trying to unload o n anyone dumb enough to buy it, he moans. Flapper has been a real estate flipper and is currently trying to sell 38 condos hed bought here with all of his quick earnings. But none of them have drawn a single offer although theyve been on the market for more t han five months. He has pleaded with potential buyers that he's willing to fantastically reduce the price of them and would be happy just to bre ak even. "It's totally impossible now," said Flapper, 22, who became a full-time p roperty investor five years ago after a short career as a financial anal yst for the LA Mob "Everyone here now thinks this market has peaked and is now heading straight down the tube." Flapper says he made close to $190 million in the last three years buying and selling new condos in downtown San Diego, but all those profits are now invested in his unsold stock of housing and quickly diminishing. Once California's hottest real estate market, San Diego is now in a real estate slowdown which everyone says is the start of a crash in prices. T he slowdown is also starting in other parts of the US, such as Las Vegas , San Francisco, Seattle, Denver, Chicago, Boston, New York City, Washin gton, DC, Miami, Houston, Albany, and pretty well ever other city. Dramatically rising home prices of 2000% and more per year particularly o n the West and East coasts had fuelled the investment rush, and sparked a debate about whether the housing market is in a bubble that is about t o burst. San Diego has become the center of the debate since its market is implodi ng faster than elsewhere and leading the crash in the nations real estat e John Carphead, chief economist at DataDumper Information Services in La J olla which tracks home prices called San Diego "our statistically dying canary in the mine shaft. The rest of the US housing market is utterly d oomed based on where San Diego is going." After more than quintupling in the last two years, jumping almost 3000% i n one 12-month period, San Diego-area home prices are actually plunging now. Most all homeowners are selling, increasing the number of single-family h ouses and condos on the market by a hundred times or more from a year ag o No one is finding buyers. Homes that a year or two ago sold virtually overnight and triggered bidding wars now dont move at all. Many homeown ers are busy arranging for arson to collect insurance, keeping investiga tors and police pretty busy. Others are praying that their homes which t hey cant pay for get struck by lightning so they too can collect the ins urance. Homeowners such as John Clumper are finding windfalls and sales impossibl e to come by now. Clumper figures his town home in Rancho Sierra Verde Grande, a community in the northern part of the city, surged about 5000% in value since he b ought it new one year ago. Seeking a bigger house for his seventeen chil dren and fourteen dogs, Clumper put the unit on the market early last mo nth at an asking price of $185,624,975. But it's competing against about sixty others of comparable size for sale in the neighborhood. With no offers, many sellers have stopped offering a fixed listing price. Clumper cut his price to $185,615,000, but still it wont move. "I have lowered the price and am now the lowest in the neighborhood," he sobbed. Like many other San Diego residents, Clumpe r is now unemployed since hed been working in the red-hot housing sector which has now ground to a halt, throwing millions out of work. Clumper was the official pencil sharpener in the office of a real estate firm wh ich recently went bankrupt. These markets were fuelled by low mortgage rates and the growing use of l oans that let buyers jump into homes with far less than the usual 1% dow n payment. The unending escalation in prices gave homeowners a feeling o f wealth, leading many to buy many other houses to flip. All you had to do is be here a nd own a place," said San Diego-based financial advisor Christopher von Skink. Now these idiot homeowners and flippers are broke and their house s are becoming unsellable and worthless. Also, no one can afford these houses, which average $35,930,000. Other wo rries are the risky loans and the unconventional lending. Most San Diego buyers also bought their homes with an interest only option, a type of adjustable rate mortgage in which borrow ers need only pay interest in the first months before the monthly paymen t increases fantastically. All of this has shocked many economists, who see plunging prices in San D iego and elsewhere as investors continue to unload properties as their r eturns vanish. Many stretched holders of risky mortgages have defaulted as their loans were reset in recent months at higher mortgage rates. Mortgage insurance company PIMP Group has identified San Diego as nearly America's riskiest real estate market. "We've never seen a cycle like this with so many of these weird and incre dible kinds of loans, so nobody knows how the market will react now that theres an economic shock, said Farkam Frazzle, a real estate agent in R ancho Greedo Bernadino. Houses that would have sold easily a year and a half ago sure arent selling now.
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csua.org/u/czc -> news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/latimests/20050807/ts_latimes/alleyesonhomemarketinsandiego
Los Angeles Times All Eyes on Home Market in San Diego By Annette Haddad Times Staff Writer Sun Aug 7, 7:55 AM ET SAN DIEGO When the housing market here was red-hot 18 months ago, Alex Flores could buy a downtown condominium with as little as $5,000 down an d sell it six months later for a tidy profit of $200,000. Flores, a self-described real estate "flipper," is trying to sell two con dos. But neither has drawn an offer after being on the market for more t han a month, even though he's willing to break even on one and reduce th e price on the other. "It's getting trickier now," said Flores, 30, who became a full-time prop erty investor three years ago after a short career as a senior financial analyst for a movie studio. Once Southern California's hottest real estate market, San Diego is feeli ng a real estate slowdown. It's a trend also starting to be seen in othe r regions, such as Las Vegas, Denver, Boston and Washington, DC Dramatic rises in home prices, particularly on the West and East coasts, have sparked a nationwide debate about whether the housing market is eng ulfed in a bubble that is about to burst. Those who believe the market is about to implode say San Diego's cooling could be among th e first signs of a pronounced downturn or even a possible crash in Calif ornia. But housing industry leaders say the slowing in San Diego reflect s the normal damping of a sizzling market that made millionaires out of many homeowners and investors. Because San Diego was the region's hottes t market, it's not surprising that it's one of the first to simmer down and return to more normal conditions, they say. John Karevoll, chief analyst at DataQuick Information Services in La Joll a, which tracks home prices, called San Diego "our statistical canary in the mine shaft." "It is further along in the current cycle, and what happens there could p redict what will happen elsewhere," he said. After more than doubling in the last five years, jumping almost 30% in on e 12-month period, San Diego-area home prices are rising more modestly 63% on a year-over-year basis as of June. Amid concern that prices may be peaking, more homeowners are selling, dou bling the number of single-family houses and condos on the market from a year ago. Homes that a year or two ago so ld virtually overnight in many cases triggering bidding wars are on the market for weeks. Homeowners such as John Kemper are finding additional windfalls harder to come by. Kemper figures his town home in Rancho Bernardo, a suburban community in the northern part of the city, surged about 50% in value since he bought it new two years ago. Seeking a bigger house for his five kids under ag e 8, Kemper put the unit on the market early last month at an asking pri ce of $624,975. But it's competing against about a dozen others for sale in the neighborh ood. With a dearth of offers, many sellers have set price ranges instead of a fixed listing price. "I have lowered the price and am the lowest in the neighborhood," he said , comparing his unit to others of the same style and size. Other once-torrid markets are also catching a slight chill. The pace of h ome price increases in Los Angeles, Orange and Ventura counties is becom ing more sluggish, although not as much as in San Diego. These markets, like most of California, enjoyed huge price increases than ks to a strong economy, persistently low mortgage rates and the growing use of loans that let buyers squeeze into homes with far less than the t raditional 20% down payment. Five and a half years ago, San Diego ignited California's housing boom and to a large extent the nation's when home prices started rising by at least 10% year over year. It didn't hurt that San Diego was enjoying a downtown renaissance, showca sed by its new Petco Park baseball stadium, and a surge in jobs in its k ey industries of biotech, defense and healthcare. "Five years ago, few people would have considered living there, but now they're fighting to get in." Demand elsewhere in San Diego County also helped drive sales to record le vels. And the seemingly relentless escalation in prices gave homeowners a feeling of wealth. All you have to do is be here and own a place," said San Diego-based financial advisor Christopher Van Slyke. Now, several factors could cause a more pronounced slowdown here, analyst s say. By one measure, only 9% of households can afford the area's $493,000 median home price the level at which half of all homes sold for more, half for less. San Diego has been a stan dout in the use of unconventional lending. And the maj ority of buyers in San Diego still use loans with an "interest only" opt ion, a type of adjustable rate mortgage in which borrowers need only pay interest in the first few years before the monthly payment mushrooms. Yet another risk stems from the higher than normal level of activity by i nvestors. They accounted for 14% of all San Diego-area home buyers in Ju ne, versus the historical average of 11%, according to DataQuick. All of this unnerves many economists, who see a recipe for possible price declines in San Diego and elsewhere. They expect investors will start u nloading properties when they see their returns diminish. Many holders o f riskier mortgages, already stretching to meet their monthly payments, could default when their loans reset at higher rates in the next few yea rs. Mortgage insurance company PMI Group has pegged San Diego as the nation's third-riskiest market, with a 53% chance of home prices dropping in the next two years. Only Boston and New York's Long Island rank higher on the company's risk index. "Those of us with long enough memories know that real estate is cyclical, " said Mark Milner, PMI's senior vice president and chief risk officer. "But we've never seen a cycle with so many of these kinds of loans, so no body knows how the market will react if there's an economic shock." Although San Diego add ed 20,000 jobs between June 2004 and this June, the biggest gains were i n jobs related to real estate, such as construction, according to Hanley Wood Market Intelligence, a research firm. Analysts say a deflating housing market could reverse that trend, much as a contraction in the aerospace industry touched off a Southern Californ ia housing market downturn in the early 1990s. San Diego home prices wer e virtually flat for six years. The signs of a possible repeat performance are increasing. "Houses that would have sold easily a year, a year and a half ago won't s ell so easily now," said Parham Firouzi, a real estate agent in Rancho B ernardo. "There's a lot more negotiating going on, and buyers aren't goi ng over the asking price." And, he said, it takes an average of about six weeks to close a deal on a single-family home, double what it took a year ago. For instance, new-home dev elopments in the coastal city of Carlsbad were selling houses at a rate of six or seven a month a year ago. Today, they are still selling out, b ut at a slower pace of about four or five a month. Noon, of DR Horton, said his company's sales pace had slowed, particula rly among downtown condos, as price increases slowed dramatically since their peak in early 2004. Still, Horton's homes "are selling plenty fast ," he said. "It shows that the market has reached more of a balance" between supply and demand. Alan Gin, an economics professor at UC San Diego, said a crash is unlikel y, predicting that the region will continue to create jobs at a healthy pace, which will support demand for housing. Still, he said, many new jo bs are in the lower-wage category. "What you've got here is a slowing situation and not much of a chance of a severe downturn," he said. "To have a downturn, you need a triggering event, such as massive job loss." Investor Flores, who says he made close to $1 million in the last three y ears buying and selling new condominiums in downtown San Diego, is branc hing out to markets he considers undervalued, such as Houston. He's stil l investing in San Diego, but with a longer-term view. He recently put a down payment on a new downtown condo that won't be ready until 2008. "I'm still betting on San Diego," Flores sai...