Berkeley CSUA MOTD:Entry 39068
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2024/11/22 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
11/22   

2005/8/9-11 [Science/GlobalWarming] UID:39068 Activity:low
8/9     "I worked in oil refineries for nearly a decade, and there's nothing
         I enjoyed more than SUV owners complaining to me about gas prices.
         I've been out of refineries for the past three years, and now that
         prices have really taken off, I'm sure I've missed many more of
         those wonderful discussions."  - w00t!
         The Oil Moat:  http://csua.org/u/cz2
         \_ "No new refineries have been built in the United States in more
            than 20 years, and judging by the popularity refineries hold in
            the public imagination, I'm pretty sure there won't be any new
            plants added soon."  Huh.  I live very close to a refinery, and I
            both like the way it looks and the way it smells.  Apparently that
            is a minority opinion.
            \_ I like the cancer and other disease the best!
               \_ Evidence?
                  \_ Uhm, Google?
        \_ Although refinery capacity is running very tight now, many of the
           refeneries have been expanding output continually for decades.
        \_ An economy of scale would fix the problem:
           http://csua.org/u/cz9 (SFGate.com, McCain Presidency)
2024/11/22 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
11/22   

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csua.org/u/cz2 -> www.fool.com/news/commentary/2005/commentary05080905.htm?source=eptyholnk303100&logvisit=y&npu=y&bounce=y
Fool News & Commentary The Oil Moat Rising oil prices have earned superior returns for investors over the pas t few years. Despite the rising popularity of hybrid cars, big oil is he re to stay. Those looking for lower gas prices may think that applying hybrid technology on this scale will reduce demand and lower p rices at the pump, but before buying a new V-8, gas-hungry consumers may want to think twice. The rising cost of oil I worked in oil refineries for nearly a decade, and there's nothing I enj oyed more than SUV owners complaining to me about gas prices. I've been out of refineries for the past three years, and now that prices have rea lly taken off, I'm sure I've missed many more of those wonderful discuss ions. With Toyota's recent announcement, drivers may be wondering whethe r hybrid cars will stop the escalating prices. I hate to be the bearer o f bad news, but my answer is no. There are two separate factors at work: rising oil prices and limited ref ining capacity. First, as the headlines keep reminding us, crude oil cur rently sits at more than $60 a barrel, and Goldman Sachs recently projec ted that it will peak at more than $100 a barrel. The standard reason is that China, India, Russia, and Eastern Europe all have growing middle-c lass populations who will want cars and home heating and plastics, just like the rest of us. Therefore, unlike previous oil spikes, this one is driven by demand outstripping production capacity, not deliberate OPEC a ctions to reduce supply. Reserves must be refined This is not to say the world is running out of oil. In The Prize, Daniel Yergin's epic history of the oil industry, Yergin points out that projec tions have always said the world would run out of oil in the near future . Somehow, new discoveries have always pushed this "imminent doom" furth er into the future. Today, forecasts are all over the map, but with at l east 1 trillion barrels of known reserves, "imminent doom" is projected somewhere between 40 years and more than 100 years in the future. It is the production capacity -- the fact that these reserves cannot be extrac ted fast enough to meet rising demand -- that is driving price increases . Furthermore, the reserves are deeper in the ground or under the ocean floor, and many new crude reserves are of lower-quality oil. No new r efineries have been built in the United States in more than 20 years, an d judging by the popularity refineries hold in the public imagination, I 'm pretty sure there won't be any new plants added soon. Existing plants will increase capacity, but only through lengthy local permitting proce sses. As demand keeps rising, I'd expect refiners to continue operation above 90% capacity well into the future. The hybrid effect With 600,000 hybrid vehicles on US roads, the demand for refined produc t will be reduced, right? Unfortunately, with American gasoline demand u p to 95 million barrels per day, 600,000 hybrids will reduce demand by less than 01% (my estimate). It will take tens of millions of hybrid ve hicles before there is a sizable impact on American gasoline consumption . It is great to see new technology and a new interest in fuel efficienc y in the American marketplace, but in the short term, it doesn't look li ke it will be enough to put a dent in demand. Motley Foo l Hidden Gems uses to identify superior stocks for subscribers. If you a gree that we'll be living in a world with sustained high crude oil and g asoline prices, then oil presents just that kind of moat. The stoc k is up almost 400% since that time and is now the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 index. And with no new refineries on the horizon, Valero could still go higher. In Stock Advisor, David and Tom Gardner lay bare their entire investment approach through regular lessons and in-depth research reports. The soon er you get started buying the world's greatest stocks, the better off yo u'll be.
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csua.org/u/cz9 -> sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2002/08/25/IN86873.DTL
Sunday Insight Below is the text of an Oval Office address, delivered on Aug. The speech came five years after the administr ation of George W Bush advised Americans to adapt to, rather than resis t, global warming. In 2004, Bush lost the Republican presidential nomina tion after popular anger about lost retirement funds and Bush's past bus iness dealings left him vulnerable to challenge from McCain. My fellow Americans, this is the third time this summer I've spoken to yo u from the Oval Office. Our national emergency continues, and it's urgen t that you know how we are responding and how you can help. As you know, much of our beloved homeland has been literally on fire this summer. Many of you have watched on television these past days as firef ighters have bravely fought the blazes engulfing Yellowstone National Pa rk. Unfortunately, I received word this afternoon from the commander on the scene that, despite his best efforts, most of Yellowstone will have burned to the ground within 48 hours. This tragedy will bring to 12 million the number of acres lost to fire na tionwide this summer, and August has barely begun. Therefore, tonight I am issuing an executive order, closing all national parks in fire-prone areas until further notice. I apologize for disrupting any vacation plan s, but we simply must do all we can to deter additional fires. The fires stem from the brutal heat and drought that have made all of us so miserable this summer. Here in Washington temperatures have topped 90 degrees on 50 of the last 60 days. I am profoundly grieved to report that the number of heat-related deaths a cross the nation has reached 3,147. Most victims have been elderly city dwellers who lacked air conditioning. Mrs McCain and I extend our deep sympathies to the families, and I ask you to hold them in your prayers. The Center for Disease Con trol has confirmed an outbreak of dengue fever in southern Florida and i s investigating two more potential cases in New Orleans. Quarantines hav e been established, and vaccinations will soon be available. Please, coo perate with authorities to limit the spread of this deadly disease. To save farmers from bankruptcy, I urge Congress to expand the emergen cy farm supports proposed in my last speech. To deter a doubling or wors e of global food prices, and the political unrest they can bring, I auth orize tonight the release of 80 percent of our remaining grain reserves. I also appeal to other large producing nations to help us stabilize the markets. As you know, the drought has forced us to ration water in 38 of the 50 st ates. I know not being able to bathe or shower every day is unpleasant. Unfortunately, the drought persists, so we have no choice but to tighten the rationing still further. No one get s exempted except hospitals and other emergency facilities. Starting nex t week, industrial, agricultural, and residential users alike will exper ience an additional one-third reduction in water supply. So, if you now bathe or shower every second day, next week it will be every third. But our nation has entered a new era : Each of us must get used to managing with much less water than before. Ironically, at the same time we're rationing water, we are expecting dren ching rains on parts of the East and Gulf coasts as hurricane season get s under way. Our meteorologists warn me that this year's storms may be e ven more ferocious than last year's. So please understand: Many coastal areas may be declared off limits in the coming weeks. They are not meant to ruin your vacation but to keep you and your family safe. My fellow Americans, this summer has been difficult for all of us. But I bring you a message of hope tonight -- a vision for how we can move beyo nd this crisis and reclaim the bountiful future that is America's promis e As an old military man, I believe the first rule of combat is, "Know your enemy." After extensive consultations with my staff and top specialists from around the world, I am now convinced that our real enemy is not th e heat, the drought, or the fires. Humanity has pumped enormous amounts of carbon diox ide and other greenhouses gases into the atmosphere, and we are beginnin g to pay the price. I know some of my Republican friends may find this analysis hard to hear. For years, some in our party have insisted global warming is nothing mo re than liberal claptrap intended to reduce America's standard of living . But there is nothing liberal or conservati ve about global warming. It is basic science, and the events of this sum mer illustrate how it is already making a mockery of our standard of liv ing. No one would wish for the kind of summer we are now enduring, but perhaps it will wake us up to the truth about global warming. This year has bee n the hardest, but the fact is that killer droughts, heat waves, forest fires, and super-storms have afflicted us in six of the last seven summe rs. That is exactly what scientists have said global warming would look like. Five years ago, the snows on Mount Kilimanjaro were projected to melt by 2017. If global sea levels rise as fast as Kilimanja ro's snow melts, some of our most precious coastal areas -- Cape Cod, Ne w Orleans, the Florida Keys and parts of the National Mall here in Washi ngton -- could be under water within our lifetimes. And of course the br utal droughts, storms and heat waves will only get worse. Tonight I appeal to Congress and the nation to launch what I call a Green Deal for America. Joining me in this appeal, I'm happy to say, is my ol d friend, Senate Majority Leader John Kerry. Kerry and I have fough t many environmental battles together but none so critical as this. The Green Deal for America is a government-led, but market based, program to shift our nation away from carbon-based fuels like oil and coal and replace them with solar, wind, and hydrogen. To begin, the government wi ll entirely stop subsidizing the carbon-based fuels that only make globa l warming worse. Instead, those billions will be converted into subsidie s for green energy, such as consumer tax credits to help solarize your h ouse. To further help tip the markets in a green direction, the government will redirect its own purchasing power. For example, Washington will tell De troit that from now on the 60,000 vehicles we buy every year for officia l use must be hydrogen-fueled. We will ask state and local governments t o do the same. The economies of scale that flow from those orders should enable the car manufacturers to bring down the price of hydrogen vehicl es to where average consumers can afford them. The second part of the Green Deal for America attacks the trickiest part of the global warming problem: its long lag time. The trouble is, carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for approximately 100 years. That mea ns even if we switched to a noncarbon energy system overnight, the plane t would keep warming for decades. So, it's not enough to stop adding car bon to the atmosphere. We must also extract as much of what's already th ere as possible. By the miracle of photosynthesis, trees inhale carbon dioxide like we in hale oxygen. So, the Green Deal will aim to plant 300 million trees, one for each Amer ican, within the next five years. Volunteers, organized in Green Brigades, will do the actu al planting. I hope young people in particular will consider signing up. With a Green Deal for America, our nation can kick the carbon habit withi n 10 years and perhaps escape the worst effects of global warming. Be ca reful: In the coming weeks, you may hear scare talk claiming that a Gree n Deal will hurt our economy. The truth is, investing i n green energy sources produces more jobs and higher profits, not less. This program is good for workers, it's good for business, and it's essen tial to our future. My fellow Americans, we face one of the greatest tests in the history of our nation. Kerry, and numerous business, community and labor lead ers in working to pass a Green Deal for America. It's no silver bullet, but it will be a great help as we fight to restore our homeland and secu re the future our children and grandchildren deserve. Mark Hertsgaa...
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SFGate.com
Friday, May 14, 2004 Updated: 12:07 AM PDT ' I'm guessing that the best way to hail a cab or a bartender in Athens will not be by waving an American flag." Sorensen Capital group He's already got more money than god, but that isn't stopping Steve Young (above, right) from embarking on a second career in business. Gov's Balancing Act Schwarzenegger unveils revised budget containing spending cuts and (as promised) no new taxes. Wedding Date's Still On Same-sex marriage opponents lose bid to halt gay nuptials, scheduled to begin Monday in Massachusetts. Researchers say they've found evidence of impact greater than the one that probably caused the dinosaurs' extinction. Wars' $50 Bil Price Tag "It's a big bill," says Wolfowitz, who estimates the cost of conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. No Plea From Anderson Using a wheelchair, the haggard-looking suspect is arraigned in the murder of Xiana Fairchild. Giants Left Stranded G-men leave 12 men on base, including two in the bottom of the 9th, and drop series to Philly. Sex, Drugs, And Then 5 Deaths Playboy Playmate tells how she got involved with 2 suspects, but left in just the nick of time. Pixar Growth Plan Wins Fans 20-year proposal for Emeryville site gets flak from activists, but city says go for it.