6/27    What exactly would a PRC invasion of Taiwan look like?  Naval blockade?
        Massive landing of ground troops? Bombing? Some sort of coup by
        pro-mainland agents inside the government?  Thoughts?
        \_ http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/taiwan.htm.
           Short summary: a conventional military invasion of Taiwan will fail.
             -- ilyas
           \_ What about this:
              http://www.washtimes.com/specialreport/20050626-122138-1088r.htm
              "We left the million-man swim behind in about 1998, 1999 ... And
              in fact, what people are saying now ... is that it's a moot
              point, because in just amphibious lift alone, the Chinese are
              doubling or even quadrupling their capability on an annual
              basis. ... In the '07-'08 time frame, a capability will be there
              that a year ago we would have said was very, very unlikely. We
              now assess that as being very likely to be there."
           \_ Throwing 5 million guys at the problem often worked for the
              Soviets.  -John
              \_ China will need, using a very rough estimate, 600,000-1mil
                 amphibious troops, and a perfectly executed plan that was
                 somehow concealed from the US.  If the US gets involved at any
                 stage before most of these troops are on the island, it's
                 stage before most of these troops are on the mainland, it's
                 over.  Given the stakes and the cost of failure, I do not
                 believe China will mount a conventional invasion.  This is
                 also assuming massed troops have the same value today as
                 they did in 1944.  It's actually the case that massing troops
                 puts one at a severe strategic disadvantage in today's
                 technological environment.  Aside from the amphibious
                 capabilities needed to mount such an attack, China will also
                 need to project sufficient naval power to make American
                 Navy a moot point.  This will not happen in the next 20 years,
                 and perhaps never.  I should also repeat, going into an open
                 war with the US that the US will have the spine to fight is
                 suicide for any state, China included. -- ilyas
                 \_ The US would not be enough of a factor to stop an
                    invasion, although they could cause significant damage
                    afterwards.  Supply distances are too long, and carrier
                    task groups are too vulnerable to attack.  The US,
                    especially given its low international standing now,
                    would not use tactical nukes first, and if the PRC were
                    to annihilate a few carriers with a sub-launched nuke,
                    there's your "most of them on the island" already.  -John
                    \_ I am curious if there is any concrete information known
                       about the PRCs possible plans to zerg carrier groups
                       with missiles.  I am not aware of any concrete (i.e.
                       actual existing ships involved) criticisms of carrier
                       group vulnerabilities.  I remain sceptical about PRCs
                       missile technology's ability at this time to pose a
                       genuine threat, but it is a concern.  No known submarine
                       will survive to deliver a first strike on a carrier
                       group, unless I am missing something obvious. -- ilyas
                       \_ The PRC is not currently known to have sufficient
                          SSM capability.  That doesn't mean they don't have
                          it--remember, the Soviets spent the better part of
                          30 years perfecting the idea.  And it wouldn't have
                          to survive the first strike, just get the bloody
                          things off.  First strike, remember?  Bang.  I
                          rather think the PRC is keeping off invading Taiwan
                          because (a) it would lose most of the "goodwill"
                          it's spent the last decades bribing the third world
                          into according it, and (b) the cost of having its
                          shit fucked up by the US (which it would) would
                          exceed the gain from successfully invading Taiwan
                          (which it would.)  Given time, that equation may
                          change... -John
        \_ PRC doesn't need to invade.  If Taiwan declares independence, PRC
        will just freeze all Taiwanese assets in China, lob one or two
        missiles, and Taiwan will capitulate and come back to the
        negotiation table.  In the silly fantasy scenario of an
        actual invasion, it's not going to do any stupid massive amphibious
        landing assault.  Instead, it will attempt a lightning strike.
        PRC will strike with its missiles (and planes) to try to
        incapacitate Taiwan's airforce, then it will drop airborne
        troops to try to decapitate Taiwan's leadership, and sow
        chaos all over the island.  It will attempt to do all this
        before US carrier group arrives.  This will throw Taiwan's
        people into a massive panic even if the actual operations
        aren't too successful.  What some people don't understand
        is that the will to suffer massive losses (economic and
        in terms of human lives) for an extended period is there
        for PRC if Taiwan declares independence.  It's not that
        Taiwan's military sucks or anything, it's just that
        people in Taiwan are not willing to sacrifice what it
        takes to attain dejure independence.  As for PRC, nah, it won't
        invade Taiwan without cause anytime soon like the recent silly
        articles surmised.  It will just continue to bid its time, and
        integrate Taiwan economically.
                 and perhaps never.  -- ilyas
                    \_ I don't know if China has any concrete plans to zerg
                       the carrier groups in some way with missiles
        for PRC if Taiwan declares independence.
        integrate Taiwan economically, as long as Taiwan doesn't declare
        independence.
        \_ this is the closest to what will happen in reality.