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| 4/3 |
| 2005/6/20-21 [Politics/Foreign/MiddleEast/Iraq] UID:38208 Activity:low |
6/20 Subthread about mortality rates yanked from above Lancet post
\_ This is ordinarily true, but I would be curious to see some
pre-Saddam data. Naturally, I doubt we could find something like
that. -- ilyas
\_ The study actually recorded pre-Saddam data. Pre-Saddam death
rates were 5.0(3.7,6.3)/1000/yr, Post-Saddam data were
12.3(1.4-23.2)/1000/yr. -nivra
\_ You are telling me that during Saddam's tenure Iraq had a lower
death rate than the United States? -- ilyas
\_ So is the CIA:
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/iz.html
\_ I don't think it's true, myself. -- ilyas
\_ Why not? Look at the population age breakdowns.
\_ Why not? Because it simply doesn't make sense.
Almost every cause of death is more sereve the
less developed you are. I also think certain
types of deaths are simply not reported. I would
also like to note that your typical 'hellhole
middle eastern arab states' all have extremely
low death rates for some reason. It's very
suspicious. -- ilyas
\_ It's even better than that. Post-invasion,
excluding Falluja, the Iraqi mortality rate is
7.9 per 1000 people. According to the CIA
World Factbook, the estimated 2005 mortality
rate in the US is 8.25 per 1000.
\_ The slate article cites UN data as saying:
"Iraq's mortality rate from 1980-85 was 8.1 per
1,000. From 1985-90, the years leading up to
the 1991 Gulf War, the rate declined to 6.8 per
1,000. After '91, the numbers are murkier, but
clearly they went up. Whatever they were in
2002, they were almost certainly higher than 5
per 1,000. In other words, the wartime
mortality rate--if it is 7.9 per
1,000--probably does not exceed the peacetime
rate by as much as the Johns Hopkins team
assumes." -emarkp
\_ I think it's incredibly shocking if true.
Saudi Arabia death rates are apparently
2.62/1k. Anybody want to comment on why
this might be? Has anybody plotted if
the population growth matches birth/death
figures in the Middle East? -- ilyas
\_ Better diet and more exercise?
\_ I have no idea but I have come to view
the US as a weird place... in many areas
we're not much better off than the 3rd
world places. Iraq was nowhere near as
fucked up as some 3rd world places...
people are relatively educated and so
forth, they have infrastructure. What is
the US death rate among young men in
ghettos? I'm playing GTA: San Andreas
right now and based on this research,
large crowds of people regularly get
shot or run over in downtown areas.
\_ It's not just the US, the Middle East
rates are much lower than those of the
entire industrialized West. I think
it smells of your good ol'fashioned
Soviet-era underreporting. -- ilyas
\_ Look at the age structure of the
populations. I'm pretty sure
80-90 year old Americans are going
to have a higher death rate than
young people in third world
countries. Middle eastern
countries mostly have very young
populations.
\_ Uh, this makes no sense. Middle
Eastern countries mostly have
very young populations because
their life expectancy is low.
How can life expectancy be low,
and deaths per thousand be low,
-- ilyas
\_ Take a look through the
factbook entries. Your
assumptions are... creative.
You're also looking at a
snapshot. Historical data
for the countries involved
would be more useful
\_ Well, Iraq's reported
life expectancy isn't
'low' but it's a good
deal lower than the US.
How can this be coupled
with a lower death rate
in Iraq? Same with any
other Middle Eastern vs
Western nation. -- ilyas
\_ As three posts have
said: demographics.
Historical data would
probably make it much
clearer, but I would
assume these values
are quite cyclical.
\_ I love how this quote exposes Kaplan's
hackery. Well, gee pre-Invasion is
"certainly higher" than what the methods
in the study indicate. The _logical_
conclusion is that the study's methodology
is conservative and under-estimates actual
death rate. Of course, Kaplan doesn't
understand the definition of "unclear,"
so I'm just expecting too much of him, I
guess. -nivra
\_ His assertion that the numbers "clearly
went up" is weak, yes. But weren't we
getting complaints from the world about
how the sanctions were killing Iraqis?
Isn't it reasonable to guess that the
pre-2001 mortality rate was at least 6.8?
\_ sure. -nivra
\_ That data is pre-invasion, not pre-Saddam, and it is from the
same study (they asked people about deaths in the period
before and after invasion). -emarkp
\_ Yes. I had assumed ilyas meant "When Saddam Was Ousted,"
by "Saddam".
\_ Yeah, that's what I meant. -- ilyas |
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| www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/iz.html Field Listing Formerly part of the Ottoman Empire, Iraq was occupied by Britain during the course of World War I; in 1920, it was declared a League of Nations mandate under UK administration. In stages over the next dozen years, Ir aq attained its independence as a kingdom in 1932. A "republic" was proc laimed in 1958, but in actuality a series of military strongmen ruled th e country, the latest was SADDAM Husayn. Territorial disputes with Iran led to an inconclusive and costly eight-year war (1980-88). In August 19 90, Iraq seized Kuwait, but was expelled by US-led, UN coalition forces during the Gulf War of January-February 1991. Following Kuwait's liberat ion, the UN Security Council (UNSC) required Iraq to scrap all weapons o f mass destruction and long-range missiles and to allow UN verification inspections. Continued Iraqi noncompliance with UNSC resolutions over a period of 12 years resulted in the US-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003 and the ouster of the SADDAM Husayn regime. Coalition forces remain in Iraq, helping to restore degraded infrastructure and facilitating the es tablishment of a freely elected government, while simultaneously dealing with a robust insurgency. The Coalition Provisional Authority transferr ed sovereignty to the Iraqi Interim Government (IG) in June 2004. Iraqis voted on 30 January 2005 to elect a 275-member Transitional National As sembly that will draft a permanent constitution and pave the way for new national elections at the end of 2005. Field Listing government water control projects have drained most of the inhabited mars h areas east of An Nasiriyah by drying up or diverting the feeder stream s and rivers; a once sizable population of Marsh Arabs, who inhabited th ese areas for thousands of years, has been displaced; furthermore, the d estruction of the natural habitat poses serious threats to the area's wi ldlife populations; development of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers system contingent upon agreements with upstream riparian Turkey; Field Listing chief of state: Iraqi Transitional Government (ITG) President Jalal TALAB ANI (since 6 April 2005); Deputy Presidents Adil Abd AL-MAHDI and Ghazi al-Ujayl al-YAWR (since 6 April 2005); note - the President and Deputy P residents comprise the Presidency Council) head of government: Iraqi Transitional Government (ITG) Prime Minister Ib rahim al-JAFARI (since April 2005); Field Listing an insurgency against the Iraqi Interim Government and Coalition forces i s primarily concentrated in Baghdad and in areas west and north of the c apital; Field Listing three equal horizontal bands of red (top), white, and black with three gr een five-pointed stars in a horizontal line centered in the white band; the phrase ALLAHU AKBAR (God is Great) in green Arabic script - Allahu t o the right of the middle star and Akbar to the left of the middle star - was added in January 1991 during the Persian Gulf crisis; similar to t he flag of Syria, which has two stars but no script, Yemen, which has a plain white band, and that of Egypt which has a gold Eagle of Saladin ce ntered in the white band; Field Listing Iraq's economy is dominated by the oil sector, which has traditionally pr ovided about 95% of foreign exchange earnings. Iraq's seizure of Kuwait in August 1990, subsequent international economic sanctions, and damage from military action by an international coalition beginning in January 1991 drastically reduced economic activity. Although government policies supporting large military and internal security forces and allocating r esources to key supporters of the regime hurt the economy, implementatio n of the UN's oil-for-food program beginning in December 1996 helped imp rove conditions for the average Iraqi citizen. Iraq was allowed to expor t limited amounts of oil in exchange for food, medicine, and some infras tructure spare parts. In December 1999, the UN Security Council authoriz ed Iraq to export under the program as much oil as required to meet huma nitarian needs. The drop in GDP in 2001-02 was largely the result of the global economic slowdown and lower oil prices. Per capita food imports increased significantly, while medical supplies and health care services steadily improved. Per capita output and living standards were still we ll below the pre-1991 level, but any estimates have a wide range of erro r The military victory of the US-led coalition in March-April 2003 resu lted in the shutdown of much of the central economic administrative stru cture. Although a comparatively small amount of capital plant was damage d during the hostilities, looting, insurgent attacks, and sabotage have undermined efforts to rebuild the economy. Despite continuing political uncertainty, the Iraqi Interim Government (IG) has founded the instituti ons needed to implement economic policy, and has successfully concluded a debt reduction agreement with the Paris Club. The high percentage gain estimated for GDP in 2004 is the result of starting from a low base. Field Listing general assessment: the 2003 war severely disrupted telecommunications th roughout Iraq including international connections; USAID is overseeing t he repair of switching capability and the construction of mobile and sat ellite communication facilities domestic: repairs to switches and lines destroyed in the recent fighting continue, but sabotage remains a problem; cellular service is expected t o be in place within two years international: country code - 964; satellite earth stations - 2 Intelsat (1 Atlantic Ocean and 1 Indian Ocean), 1 Intersputnik (Atlantic Ocean re gion), and 1 Arabsat (inoperative); coaxial cable and microwave radio re lay to Jordan, Kuwait, Syria, and Turkey; Field Listing coalition forces assist Iraqis in monitoring boundary security; Iraq's la ck of a maritime boundary with Iran prompts jurisdiction disputes beyond the mouth of the Shatt al Arab in the Persian Gulf; |