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| 11/23 |
| 2005/6/6-7 [Reference/RealEstate] UID:37986 Activity:moderate |
6/6 Swami the Magnificent is going to revise his estimate of when
the housing bubble will start to pop, from Q4 2005 to Q1 2006.
\_ Is salami saying NoCal, SoCal, or national, and what does "start to"
mean? E.g., I could say the housing bubble has already started to
pop with what's already happened in Vegas.
\_ What is the definition of a pop? How much do prices have to go
down, in what time frame, for it to be considered a pop?
\_ Speaking of Salami:
http://www.sputnik7.com/vod/index.jsp?section=music&key=pdsf
\_ You mean the speculators cashing out?
\_ What already happened in Las Vegas? You mean record home
price appreciation?
http://www.ktvu.com/news/4562424/detail.html
\_ http://csua.org/u/c9m (sfgate.com)
"When you lose money in real estate, you really feel it,"
said Igor Doncov, a software engineer in Half Moon Bay who
bought two new houses in Las Vegas early in 2004 but sold
them at a loss after his builder, Pulte Homes, cut prices on
its new models by $180,000. "I thought I couldn't lose," he
said in a telephone interview. "But it turned into a total
disaster." ... By December, it was clear the peak of the
frenzy had passed. Residential building permits that month
were 34 percent below the previous December's, as measured by
the Center for Business and Economic Research, which Schwer
directs. And 15 percent fewer people were moving to Las Vegas
-- some undoubtedly spooked by the region's steep jump in
home prices. Pulte officials would not comment on the price
reductions. In the wake of Pulte's move, other builders also
cut prices but made no formal announcements.
said Igor Doncov, a software engineer in Half Moon Bay.
http://csua.org/u/c9o (reviewjournal.com)
King paid $498,000 for the house, which he bought as an
investment. The same model now lists for $382,990 ...
But a major increase in the number of resale homes on the
market -- currently about 16,000, up from February's 1,400 ...
[I take this as lots of people in Vegas saying "Vegas is a
shithole place to live. What? Home prices are going through
the roof? Take my house -- buh-bye!]
\_ Thank God. Literally. The Chinese proverb that greedy
people should and are punished, is coming true. Maybe
I should thank Confucious instead of God.
\_ Did you read the entire article? It gives examples
of other people making money during the same time
period and has quotes from people saying the market
is still healthy. Appreciation rates slowing down
does not equal a bubble popping. Home prices
actually going down might.
\_ Yes, I read the entire article. Please note that
the criterion is "start to pop", which is a very
low bar indeed, especially in the context of saying
"A-ha! The Swami is right!"
I am still waiting for the Swami to explain what
"start to pop" means anyway.
One could also argue that all red-hot-Vegas-real-estate
news is intended to bury bubble news, to keep the good
times rolling for those already in, but that's just
speculation.
\_ I just did, below.
\_ Nationwide, quarter to quarter decline in home prices
continuing for an extended period.
\_ Can you say "extended period" means two quarters? (6 months)
Can you say "Nationwide" means all the hot housing markets,
or all the hot housing markets excluding 1-3 of them?
\_ Nationwide means national average. Extended is deliberately
left undefinited because I have no idea how long it will
go down. Even the Magnificent Swami has his limits.
Certainly more than two quarters.
\_ no one sells their house in February; that's a seasonal
variation
\_ Nice job deleting my rebuttal. Have fun arguing with
yourself.
\_ Mmmm... I want dry salami... |
| 11/23 |
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| www.sputnik7.com/vod/index.jsp?section=music&key=pdsf -> www.sputnik7.com/shared/plugins.jsp?back=%2Fvod%2Findex.jsp%3Fsection%3Dmusic%26key%3Dpdsf In Internet Explorer 5 for PC: 1 Go to "Tools", "Internet Options", and click on the tab labeled "Secu rity" 2 Click on "Custom Level" and scroll down to the "Java" section. |
| www.ktvu.com/news/4562424/detail.html The state's two largest metropolitan areas -- Las Vegas and Reno-Sparks - - ranked second and third among cities in house price appreciation, acco rding to Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight data released We dnesday. Patrick Lawler, chief economist for the housing enterprise oversight offi ce, attributed the increase to low interest rates, income growth and app arent investor speculation in some markets. "The rise in house prices continues at an extremely strong pace and raise s the potential for declines in some areas later on," Lawler said in a s tatement. Analysts in Las Vegas said some consumers were finding homes beyond their financial reach. Recent statistics from southern Nevada housing analyst Home Builders Rese arch Inc. Lori Hacking, Mark Hacking A Utah man who admitted shooting his sleeping wife and dumping her body i n a trash bin last July is sentenced to six years to life in prison. |
| csua.org/u/c9m -> sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2005/03/07/MNGOTBLIIR1.DTL Email This Article Las Vegas' lucky number last year was 52 -- as in 52 percent. That's how much real estate prices jumped in the nation's fastest-growing city in o ne year, as a housing shortage set off a wave of speculation by investor s from California and other states. But as any gambler knows, Lady Luck eventually turns a cold shoulder. Las Vegans wanted to cash in, too, and so many put their houses up for sale that they flooded the market. By the end of the year, some homebuilders were slashing prices. For investors from states like California where prices seem to move in on ly one direction -- up -- it was a stark example of a deflating bubble. "When you lose money in real estate, you really feel it,'' said Igor Donc ov, a software engineer in Half Moon Bay who bought two new houses in La s Vegas early in 2004 but sold them at a loss after his builder, Pulte H omes, cut prices on its new models by $180,000. "I thought I couldn't lose," he said in a telephone interview. Housing analysts don't think Las Vegas' slowdown is a sign that prices wi ll soften soon in other fast-appreciating regions. But they say it is a warning of what could happen in the Bay Area as interest rates go up -- particularly for people trying to "flip" houses for a quick profit. "Everyone is watching Las Vegas with its price appreciation and flipping, " said John Karevoll, an analyst at DataQuick, the La Jolla real estate research firm. Myrna Kingham, president of t he Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors, remembers not-so-distant d ays of driving around in a pickup wearing high heels and showing clients dusty 5- acre parcels listed for $20,000. But as the population of Las Vegas and surrounding Clark County grew 81 p ercent in the 1990s, adding 621,160 people, housing prices caught up, ma tching the national median of $145,000 in 2001. Then last year, the market caught fire, boosted by healthy job gains, a g rowing stream of retirees, Californians drawn to lower home prices and a n influx of investor money. Builders, faced with a shortage of workers, had trouble keeping up. Add r ock-bottom interest rates, and the scene resembled the go-go days of the Bay Area's tech boom. Hundreds of would-be buyers descended on open hou ses, and home prices seemed to increase as quickly as the progressive ja ckpots in the slot machines on the Strip. Record appreciation In the spring of 2004, the median price for a single-family house was $26 9,000, 52 percent higher than the year before -- a national record for a ppreciation, according to the National Association of Realtors. "People were looking f or affordability -- they wanted a nice home in an area with nice weather that they could buy for $200,000." Californians, who pay some of the highest home prices in the nation, took notice. Golden State residents have snapped up nearly 27,000 Las Vegas properties since 2000, according to DataQuick. In 2004 alone, California residents bought 11,600 homes -- 12 percent of the transactions in Clar k County for the year. Bay Area residents bought nearly 7,800 Las Vegas properties over the past five years. In the second quarter of 2004 alone, the number who bought Las Vegas property doubled from the same quarter the year before, to mor e than 800, surpassing investment in Sacramento, the Tahoe region and Pa lm Springs for the seventh straight quarter. But in less time than it takes to build a single house, the market change d Egged on by the stratospheric prices their neighbors were asking -- and g etting -- homeowners in Las Vegas flooded the market with "for sale" sig ns. The number of existing houses posted for sale on the Multiple Listin g Service ballooned from about 1,400 in February to more than 16,000 by October. Among them were never-lived-in homes offered by investors who had bought them only months before from national homebuilders -- who were selling t heir own brand-new houses literally across the street. In early fall one of those builders, Pulte Homes, took the extraordinary step of slashing prices by $25,000 to $180,000 on more than 20 of its La s Vegas-area developments. The move sent shock waves through the Las Veg as building industry and angered investors like Igor Doncov. Doncov, a 57-year-old engineer who was a victim of the technology flame- out, was one of thousands of investors who hoped to turn a quick profit by buying and selling Las Vegas property within a few months. Early last year he bought two new houses from Pulte Homes for $515,000 each. By the end of the summer, he said, the houses were worth well over $600, 000, based on Pulte's prices for the same models. Doncov sold the two properties in December and January for $480,000 and $ 490,000; after closing costs and sales fees, he estimates he lost $100,0 00. He is working with a lawyer to try to recoup the losses from Pulte, on the grounds Pulte misled investors by systematically raising new home prices, then abruptly lowering them. Many people in Las Vegas shrug at tales like Doncov's, saying any plan to get rich quick is fraught with r isk. "There are people who come here and lose all kinds of money on the card t able," said Keith Schwer, an economist at the University of Nevada at La s Vegas. By December, it was clear the peak of the frenzy had passed. Residential building permits that month were 34 percent below the previou s December's, as measured by the Center for Business and Economic Resear ch, which Schwer directs. And 15 percent fewer people were moving to Las Vegas -- some undoubtedly spooked by the region's steep jump in home pr ices. Pulte officials would not comment on the price reductions. In the wake of Pulte's move, other builders also cut prices but made no formal announc ements. KB Home, the region's largest home builder, didn't cut prices but did tig hten its policies on sales to investors. Contracts now stipulate, that, barring the loss of a job or other major problem, those who resell their properties within a year have to give KB Home the profit. Despite the builders' moves, Schwer and other experts say the Las Vegas m arket remains healthy. In recent months, they say, the number of homes f or sale has declined and homes are selling faster. In January, however, there were still 13,800 homes for sale. Though the m edian price for a new home climbed 6 percent to $307,500, the median for an existing home -- $251,000 - was up only one half of one percent from a year before, according to Schwer. Over the long term, the area's job growth -- including a new 8,000- emplo yee casino opening in April -- warm climate, entertainment options and w ell-equipped airport will continue to draw buyers, Schwer said. On a Friday morning in February, Bill Jeffers, who owns Valley Furniture in Livermore, toured a $731,000 home in a subdivision called Inverness. By buying a home in Las Vegas, Jeffers, who has lived on Maui for severa l years, will shorten his twice-monthly commute to the store and put his grandchildren into strong school systems. "I tried to get in last year, but there were just too many other buyers," said Jeffers, a Livermore native. Some making profits And some investors who bought wisely are making profits. Stephanie Wedge, a San Jose real estate agent who also brokers property i n Las Vegas, bought a house for $625,000 last May She put the 5-year-ol d home on the market on Feb. "That's a really good turnaround," said Wedge, who also has reserved a co ndo in a yet-to-be built high-rise. "I think it depends on where the pro perty is -- and this is in a gated, country club community." The continu ed pace of construction serves as an outward sign of the region's confid ence. On a stretch of freeway south of the Strip, a sign reads "KB Home, Next 5 Exits." Adding more houses to a market already flush with them would seem to only exacerbate any stagnation in the market. But Dennis Smith, president of Las Vegas' Homebuilders Research Inc. The market "is still in correction mode because o f the high inventory in the resale segment,'' he said. "It will probably take at least six months for that to end." Schwer doubts Las Vegas' deceleration will bleed into the Golden State -- or a... |
| csua.org/u/c9o -> www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2004/Oct-05-Tue-2004/news/24917895.html The Gonzales family of Phoenix walks into their new rental home in Hender son's Anthem master-planned community. Denver-area real estate investor Ross King bought the home for $498,000 in September, less than two weeks before Pulte Homes lowered the price tag on similar models to $382,990. The region's second largest home builder, Pulte Homes, has cut its new ho me prices by 5 percent to 25 percent in recent days, reversing a trend o f ballooning home prices and leaving at least one Denver-based real esta te investor threatening legal action. Pulte executives announced the cuts to counter a dramatic decline in foot traffic, which was off by as much as 35 percent at some of its 18 Las V egas Valley subdivisions. Company executives believe the decline is the result of inflated housing prices that have in part been driven by real estate investors seeking a healthy return on their money. New home prices in the valley appreciated by 35 percent during the first eight months of this year, according to Home Builders Research. Over the past decade, the median price of a valley home has more than doubled wh ile median household income has increased just 22 percent. The median price of a new valley home was $259,700 in August; the price f or an existing home was $250,000, according to Home Builders Research. "I think we hit a ceiling at a certain price point, and the buyer just wa sn't willing to pay. It is simple economics between supply and demand," said Sheryl Palmer, Nevada area president for Pulte Homes. Richmond American homes recently has lo wered prices in some subdivisions while raising them in others, noted De nnis Smith, president of Home Builders Research. Denver-area resident Ross King is furious about the Pulte Homes price cut s, which came less than two weeks after he closed on a 1,900-square-foot home in Henderson's Anthem master-planned community. King paid $498,000 for the house, which he bought as an investment. The same model now lis ts for $382,990 after costing as much as $516,990 in June. King, a telecommunications consultant who earns in the mid-six figures an nually, said he understands markets rise and fall. But he thinks he was the target of a hard sell by a Pulte Del Webb sales staff he believes wa s hoping to profit from the higher price tag. Pulte's Palmer said she was unfamiliar with King's transaction but was wi lling to investigate his claims, although she noted that her sales staff did not learn of the price reductions until Saturday. "I understand his frustration," Palmer said of King, "but we have been mo nitoring the situation really over the last few weeks, and then over the last few days made the business decision to adjust our pricing." Executives of Pulte Homes believe the company will build 3,500 houses in the valley this year, trailing only market leader KB Homes. But a major increase in the number of resale homes on the market -- currently about 16,000, up from February's 1,400 -- has prevented Pulte from selling hou ses at the higher prices, Palmer said. She believes about half of those homes were built this year, suggesting many are being sold by investors. Meanwhile King, the Colorado investor, has found a family to rent his new three-bedroom house for $1,600-a-month, covering some of his $2,200 mon thly mortgage, but he remains angry over the price cut. But Smith of Home Builders Research has little sympathy for King's plight . |
| sfgate.com Friday, May 14, 2004 Updated: 12:07 AM PDT ' I'm guessing that the best way to hail a cab or a bartender in Athens will not be by waving an American flag." Sorensen Capital group He's already got more money than god, but that isn't stopping Steve Young (above, right) from embarking on a second career in business. Gov's Balancing Act Schwarzenegger unveils revised budget containing spending cuts and (as promised) no new taxes. Wedding Date's Still On Same-sex marriage opponents lose bid to halt gay nuptials, scheduled to begin Monday in Massachusetts. Researchers say they've found evidence of impact greater than the one that probably caused the dinosaurs' extinction. Wars' $50 Bil Price Tag "It's a big bill," says Wolfowitz, who estimates the cost of conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. No Plea From Anderson Using a wheelchair, the haggard-looking suspect is arraigned in the murder of Xiana Fairchild. Giants Left Stranded G-men leave 12 men on base, including two in the bottom of the 9th, and drop series to Philly. Sex, Drugs, And Then 5 Deaths Playboy Playmate tells how she got involved with 2 suspects, but left in just the nick of time. Pixar Growth Plan Wins Fans 20-year proposal for Emeryville site gets flak from activists, but city says go for it. |