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| 5/23 |
| 2005/5/25-26 [Health/Disease/General] UID:37834 Activity:kinda low |
5/25 "Experts estimate a fifth of the world's population could be affected,
with 30m needing hospital treatment and around 7.5m dying. It is
estimated that up to 60% of humans infected by the [bird] virus have
died." http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/4579777.stm
\_ "I have here some very scary numbers that I made up. I really
think you should give me some money."
\_ "Scientists are working to develop a vaccine against bird flu,
but are hampered by not knowing what form it would take, should
it spread amongst humans." Yes, I can see where there might be
some issues to creating a vaccine for a disease that doesn't
exist.
\_ Just because the big one (earthquake) hasn't happened for
almost 100 years doesn't mean it'll never happen. What are
you, stupid?
\_ Did you mean to respond to a different post?
\_ No, I mean you, Mr. Mormon.
\_ Ummm... right. I didn't say it couldn't mutate, I
just thought what the article said was amusing.
Actually trying to develop a vaccine in advance
is probably pretty good research. I'm just saying
your post would've made more sense as a reply to
the previous post.
\_ 1918
\_ The 1918 flu pandemic was caused by that H5N1 flu virus?
Dang, I didn't know that.
\_ obviously you know very little about flu virus.
\_ Did you ever take biology at Cal? Do you believe in
evolution? The scientific concensus is that while the
bird virus is harder to transmit than common cold,
history and evidence show that virus often mutate to
be more transmittable in the future while still keeping
the same virulence. Now if you don't believe in evolution
or think that praying to Joseph Smith cures all, then,
that's fine too.
\_ Ha! You're funny. This post is just a really lame
ad hominem attack. I was mocking your statement
that that seemed to imply that this was the same
virus as the one in 1918.
\_ One definition of a troll is an information amplfier.
The better the troll, the higher the gain, where
gain is defined as the ratio of characters of flameage
to characters in the original troll. Generating all
this noise from "1918" is pretty fucking impressive.
Trollgain=145.
\_ it seems like the person who wrote 1918
remained actively involved in the followup
discussion, so I don't think it can be
considered a troll.
\_ So a troll is an amplifier with feedback. You
sacrafice gain for stability, with the potential
for massive oscillations if you screw up the
phase of your feedback.
\_ actually, I didn't intend for it to be a
troll, just a few sentences on the 1918
pandemic and why H5N1 has people scared. I
didn't have time to write all that this AM
so I quit out meaning to post something
later (now). Looks like I did end up leaving
1918 in my rush this morning. Anyway, This
is the first anything I've posted since that
aborted post this morning. --Jon
\_ don't worry, crucell will save the day. buy crxl stock, buy
buy buy. |
| 5/23 |
|
| news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/4579777.stm Printable version Renewed warning over flu pandemic Hens in Thailand Humans contract avian flu through close contact with birds Scientists have renewed their warnings about the potential global effect of a flu pandemic on health and economy. Experts estimate a fifth of the world's population could be affected, wit h 30m needing hospital treatment and around 75m dying. Writing in Nature, they warn the world's economy could also be damaged by effects on international trade as well the effect of death and illness. The US and Dutch experts call for a unified approach to the problem. They say only a global effort, rather than separate work by individual co untries, will mean any pandemic can be contained. Mutation fear Fears of a pandemic have arisen because of outbreaks of the H5N1 bird flu strain in south east Asia, which has caused a total of 53 confirmed hum an deaths, according to the World Health Organization. Unfortunately, most industrial countries are looking at the vaccine issue through myopic lenses Professor Michael Osterholm, University of Minnesota It is estimated that up to 60% of humans infected by the virus have died. There are indications that it can spread between humans, although so far not in the feared mutated form which could fuel a pandemic. A case in Thailand indicated the probable transmission of the virus from a girl who had the disease to her mother, who also died. The fear is that if the H5N1 virus did mutate and spread amongst humans, it would do so rapidly and affect millions. Experts repeatedly warn such a pandemic would be far worse than the one w hich occurred in 1918, which killed between 20 and 40 million people. Scientists are working to develop a vaccine against bird flu, but are ham pered by not knowing what form it would take, should it spread amongst h umans. In addition some countries, including the UK, have announced plans to sto ckpile millions of doses of anti-retroviral drugs which could be used to treat people during a pandemic. The scientists also called for better surveillance of bird populations to assess which strain of bird flu they are carrying. They write: "To limit the effects of flu on public health and livestock p roduction, integrated and effective action from all the disciplines invo lved is urgently needed, rather than ad-hoc responses at a national leve l They called for a global task force, including human and animal health ex perts, as well as health policy advisors to be set up under the auspices of the WHO. And Professor Michael Osterholm, from the Centre for Infectious Disease R esearch and Policy at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis, US, wr iting in the same journal, said: "The arrival of pandemic flu will trigg er a reaction that will change the world overnight. "There will be an immediate response from leaders to stop the virus enter ing their countries by greatly reducing and even ending foreign travel a nd trade - as was seen in parts of Asia in response to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) epidemic. He added: "These efforts are doomed to fail given the infectiousness of t he virus and the volume of illegal crossings that occur at most borders. But government officials will feel compelled to do something to demonst rate leadership. "Individual communities will also want to bar 'outsiders'. Global, nation al and regional economies will come to an abrupt halt." He added: "Unfortunately, most industrial countries are looking at the va ccine issue through myopic lenses." Professor Osterholm warned: "National, regional or local plans based on g eneral statements of intent or action will be meaningless in the face of a pandemic." |