www.cnn.com/2005/TECH/internet/05/24/jackson.bets.reut -> www.cnn.com/2005/TECH/internet/05/24/jackson.bets.reut/
LOS ANGELES, California (Reuters) -- Whether or not Michael Jackson's jur ors still have a reasonable doubt about his guilt, the wild world of Int ernet betting has rendered judgment: the smart money is on acquittal. No longer limited to chats around the water cooler and late-night talk sh ows, speculation about the outcome of the Jackson trial has become a sta ple of online betting sites and trading exchanges. With the trial in Santa Maria, California, nearing its end, online specul ators believe the likelihood of an acquittal is higher than Jackson's ch ances of being convicted. com Web site, the odds of a conviction fo r at least one count of molestation were 43 percent on Monday. That mean s traders who buy a contract for $43 stand to win $100 if Jackson is con victed or to lose everything if he is acquitted. "There are defi nitely good theatrics in a trial that swings people back and forth in th eir thinking. Jackson, 46, has denied charges he molested a 13-year-old boy in early 20 03, gave the boy alcohol, and conspired to commit child abduction, false imprisonment and extortion. He faces over 20 years in prison if convict ed on all counts. The market in the Jackson case has fluctuated, with the odds of a convict ion climbing and plunging as the prosecution and defense, respectively, began their cases. Berend de Boer, a Dutch software engineer living in New Zealand, said tha t for a long time it looked as though Jackson was going to be convicted. But then "the prosecution brought people from 10 or 20 years ago to the s tand and I thought there's no case if you have to do that," said de Boer , who then began selling the Jackson contract short on Tradesports on ex pectations that it would decline in value. Mike Knesevitch, a spokesman for Tradesports where $100,000 has been trad ed on the Jackson trial, said the site's members are savvy news-junkies. "Our thesis is that opinion markets or exchanges like this are better pre dictors of future events than any poll could be," Knesevitch said. Opinion markets have a good track record in forecasting elections, and ec onomists have recently turned to them for insight on a range of events. Traders on Tradesports, for example, accurately predicted that Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger would be elected successor to the late Pope John Paul I I But some say that guessing the outcome of jury trials is inherently risky . "The thing about a trial is a lot of the people gambling aren't lawyers," said Bodog's Ayre. Unlike a sporting event, in which fans can rely on s tatistics, "this is a one-off event. De Boer, meanwhile, is patiently waiting to reap the benefit of a Jackson acquittal. He's just a wacko -- he's not guilty in my opinion," said de Boer, who has wagered $1,600. But, he conceded, "becau se I have money on it, I'm biased."
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