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Science Image: Forecast map USGS Californians get hourly quake forecasts Online map shows probability of strong shaking This color-coded earthquake forecast map from the US Geological Survey shows the outlook for an earthquake strong enough to knock objects off s helves over the 24 hours ending at 9:22 am PT Thursday. The Associated Press Updated: 5:45 pm ET May 18, 2005 PASADENA, Calif.
US G eological Survey seismologist Matthew Gerstenberger, who developed the s ite. After a big earthquake hits an area, scientists know there will be afters hocks, but they cant pinpoint when or where. Now residents rattled by a quake can go online and check for the possibility of more jolting in th eir area.
The chances of the maps showing when and where a significant earthquake w ill strike, however, are slim most of the time, scientists say. It doesnt tell us when the Big One is coming, said Lucy Jones, scien tist in charge of the USGS office in Pasadena. California residents already can view real-time earthquake maps with the click of a mouse, but those are usually posted and updated within minute s of a temblor occurring. Now they can click on real-time, color-coded m aps that provide earthquake probabilities in a specific region. Areas shaded in red represent a high chance of strong shaking within the next 24 hours (less than a 1 in 10 chance) while those in blue represent a very remote chance, say, more than 1 in a million. If theres a red spot, then make sure youve done what you need to do in terms of earthquake preparedness, Gerstenberger said. While the forecast maps are not a silver bullet in quake prediction, th ey are the first steps in providing the public with more refined quake p robabilities, said Tom Jordan, director of the Southern California Earth quake Center. The earthquake forecast maps are created by considering a variety of fact ors, including seismic monitoring of the San Andreas Fault and other act ive faults in California. Scientists also factor in any recent history o f small and large temblors and aftershocks on those same faults. In an accompanying commentary, Duncan Agnew of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego, noted that the latest forecast maps give earthquake victims a much more precise answe r about the risk of aftershocks after a strong tremor. Agnew, who was n ot part of the project, also said he would like to see the same method u sed in other countries that are vulnerable to earthquakes.
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