Berkeley CSUA MOTD:Entry 36741
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2024/11/22 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
11/22   

2005/3/17 [Science/GlobalWarming, Politics/Foreign/MiddleEast/Iran, Politics/Foreign/MiddleEast/Others] UID:36741 Activity:high
3/17    http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/03/17/el.baradei/index.html
        CNN interview today on Iran with IAEA head ElBaradei.
        Summary:
        North Korea is "an absolutely black hole" -- we know they have the
        plutonium for a bomb, but we don't know if they've built it into a
        bomb yet.  There are no technical hurdles now they have the plutonium.
        -- Iran, on the other hand, we don't think they have the plutonium or
        highly enriched uranium yet, and they have been cooperative.
        As long as we're talking, it's good.  The U.S. joining is wonderful.
        Enrichment should be limited to an "international consortium" --
        everyone needs to agree on an inclusive and fair system, so if a
        country wants enriched uranium for peaceful purposes, they can get it.
        No one's ruling out the possibility of Iran doing enrichment, but Iran
        has built a "confidence deficit" because of its "undeclared program" of
        the last 20 years.
        Translation:  Iran can enrich, but maybe in the future.
        (My interpretation:  Iran will settle for a plan whereby in x years,
        it can operate research centrifuges, after y years, enrich a certain
        amount, z years, enrich more.  There will be many, many folks
        in Dubya's admin that say x, y, and z should be undefined, or Iran
        should never enrich, but my gut feeling is that Dubya will settle,
        after much bargaining, for x >= 5 years, y >= 10 years, z >= 20 years.
        Included with such an agreement will be a ban on heavy-water reactors
        and other reactors that produce fissile material as a by-product.
        Freepers will scream and shout.)
        \_ Considering that Iran has had a (more or less) stable government
           for the last 15 years, I'd be less worried about them than
           Pakistan. The heavy water reactor is troubling, but given Western
           attitudes towards them, I understand Iran's goals. Hard call on
           this one.
           \_ Shrug.  If they proceed seriously with the heavy water reactor
              or enrichment, we at least call sanctions.  It's just a
              question of how many allies are with us at that point.
        \_ The IAEA is worthless.  Prior to GWI they issued even less
           urgent statements about Iraq.  Post GWI we learned Iraq was 18-
           24 months from a a bomb and had up to 20,000 researchers on the
           project.  Iran has been the largest state sponsor of terror, maybe
           after the USSR, over the past 25 years.  It's naive and completely
           irresponsible to trust them, but thanks to Dem. and leftist
           propaganda Iran is painted as a victim of imperialist American
           hegemony.
           \_ Name a Democratic defender of Iran.
              \_ Name one who will do anything about Iran.
                 \_ Answer the question.  What Democrat is painting Iran as
                    a victim of imperialist American hegemony?  -tom
                    \_ Uhm, anyone who is Iranian in origin and a democrat?
                       Duhhh? Talk about missing the point. But what can you
                       expect from tom? He walks in and the average IQ of
                       the room goes down a couple of points. -!PP
                       \_ I notice nobody has answer my question. !tom
           \_ Dubya FAA security was worthless pre-9/11.
              Everything changed after 9/11.
              (Hey, the excuse seemed to work for Dubya, who not for the IAEA)
2024/11/22 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
11/22   

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www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/03/17/el.baradei/index.html
LONDON, England (CNN) -- The following is a transcript of an interview wi th Mohamed ElBaradei, Director General of the International Atomic Energ y Agency (IAEA), conducted by CNN's Chief International Correspondent Ch ristiane Amanpour. Amanpour: For the last many decades the NPT, the Nuclear Non Proliferatio n Treaty, has been in effect, and it essentially gives the counties who signed up the rights to explore nuclear technology for peaceful purposes . Do you agree that there is problem now that any country including thos e with suspicious motives are allowed to use this? ElBaradei: There is a problem, Christiane, the NPT has served us well for the last three decades to regulate the use of nuclear technology for pe aceful purposes and to make sure it is not being used for military purpo ses, things have changed since 1970, we have realized the technology is spreading, a country that could have access to highly enriched uranium o r plutonium for example is not far away from a nuclear weapon so we need to look, revaluate the Non Proliferation Treaty, not amend it, but buil d on it, and that's what I've been saying we need a new framework for us ing nuclear technology for the 21st century. ElBaradei: My solution that we need better country of the sensitive part of the fuel cycle that highly enriched uranium, plutonium, that no one c ountry alone should sit on a factory that produces highly enriched urani um or plutonium. In fact the whole debate has been triggered by Iraq, wh ere the international community have indicated a great deal of concern, that such a sensitive technology in the region could add to a an already destabilized region, but it is not just Iran specific, I think we need to look at the big picture, we need to make sure that every country in t he future has an assurance of supply, they have access to nuclear techno logy for electricity purposes, for other application, but try to minimiz e the risk associated with that, by having an international consortium f or example, producing the fuel and then take back the fuel again under i nternational supervision. Amanpour: So in other words, don't let them enrich their own uranium? ElBaradei: Correct, no one county can enrich its own uranium, but interna tional group, international consortium, regional centers when you have a redundancy of oversight, so we have a better system of controlling that sensitive part. Now we have seen, after AQ Khan, illicit trafficking that if you have the fissile material you are really months away from a nuclear weapon and that margin of security is too close for comfort. ElBaradei: No I think they continue to support as everyone the NPT, I thi nk Bush supports that we have a cut-off as they say, so those who have t hat enrichment capability should keep it, should provide that facility t o other countries but no new countries should acquire that technology. O bviously a lot of other countries are not happy with that proposal, say it is discriminatory because why shouldn't also we have it even if we ar e latecomer and this I think Bush, again, I share the same objective, we need a better system of control. My proposal however it is not that the early bird eat the worm but we should a system by which everyone percei ves it to be inclusive and fair, fairness is usually the key to a durabl e solution and my proposal is let us have a time out let us stop any new country developing, let's stop developing nuclear any nuclear facility being built for now, let us see how we better control the facility, let us have a system by which every country is assured of supply so no count ry can say I want to have my own independent enrichment or reprocessing. I think this is a must in the near term and medium term, particularly we are going to expect a major expansion in the use of nuclear technology f or electricity and generation if you look at India and China... Finland starts now developing a nuclear reactor so we are going to see a major expansion with the use of nuclear technology and with that w e need to make sure that as we go expanding that as we expand that use o f technology for environmental impact etc, we need to make sure that we do not increase the risk associate with it. Amanpour: You said this is all triggered by the Iran problem, the Russian s have just said that they'll get back their spent-fuel for their Busher reactor, is that what you mean? ElBaradei: That is basically what I mean, this is a microcosm of what we should have in future, that we have a consortium of countries, companies under appropriate control providing the fuel and then taking back the s pent fuel so you get electricity without the risk associated with the te chnology. ElBaradei: I think Iran is one player in this whole debate, Iran obviousl y would like to have their own independent enrichment, I think they insi st we should not be treated differently from any other country and that is why I am saying Iran's solution... Iran is of course a special case b ecause there is a lot of concern about Iran because of the undeclared na ture of the program for the last two decades, so there is a lot of appre hension about it and I think Iran understood that apprehension by agreei ng to suspend its enrichment operation but Iran is symptomatic of a larg er problem that we need to address. Amanpour: Is Iran agreeing to send back their spent fuel to Russia? ElBaradei: Yes Iran agreed to send back the spent fuel to Russia, so this is a good beginning, in fact Iran is saying we want electricity but we are ready to use the fuel provided by Russia and then send it back to Ru ssia. Amanpour: Iran said it should have the right to make its own enriched ura nium, but is it still hell-bent on enriching itself? ElBaradei: I think that is what they say and what they are saying is this is a right we have like any other country and we should not be treated any differently and this is a right we want to use for own independent f uel cycle, that we would like to be an exporter. But however with that t hey are still maintaining a full suspension of that enrichment capabilit y They are engaged into dialogue with the Europeans right now. You see what is happening Christiane is two things, we are the IAEA, we are tryi ng to clarify the past, a lot of activity that has been concealed for tw o decades and we are still not there yet and I have been saying Iran is playing by the book we have improved cooperation but I still, because of that undeclared nature of the program, I need much more proactive trans parency to build confidence, so that is a legal obligation Iran has to c omply with, Iran has to comply with its legal obligation under the NPT t o come clean if you like, in parallel with that the Europeans are saying , well the nuclear issue in Iran is part of a larger problem, part of st rained relationship between Iran and the rest of the world, particularly Europe and the United States... I t is a feeling of insecurity in Iran, so let us look at the nuclear issu e in Iran as part of larger problem, and that's what is happening in the negotiation between Europe and Iran, they are putting the nuclear issue on the table but also security, technology, trade, and I think that is the way to go. You need to look at the nuclear issue as part of the broader relationship between a particular country and the rest of the world. and I am very happy now to see the US is joinin g that effort, I have been saying for a while that this, in my view, wil l never succeed unless the US does the heavy lifting, as Senator Lugar indicated recently, particularly in the area of security particularly i n the area of technology. And I am now much hopeful than before that if we endure we will be able to have a solution that assure Iran that it wi ll have the right to use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes but al so assure the international community that the Iranian program is exclus ively for peaceful purposes. Amanpour: And yet in the last few days and weeks we are seeing reports th ey are buying centrifuges, building tunnels, are they doing that? Are th ey consciously trying to hide what they are doing from you still? There ...