www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A25429-2005Mar10.html
All RSS Feeds Top UN Envoy To Present Syria With Ultimatum Nation Must Withdraw From Lebanon or Face Isolation By Robin Wright Washington Post Staff Writer Friday, March 11, 2005; Page A01 A top UN envoy will tell President Bashar Assad that Syria will face po litical and economic isolation if he does not completely and quickly wit hdraw from Lebanon, UN and US officials said yesterday. In a meeting set for tomorrow, Terje Roed-Larsen plans to inform Syria th at the international community is united in insisting that Damascus comp ly with UN Resolution 1559 -- and is prepared to impose wide punitive sanctions if it does not act quickly, the officials said. Syrian soldiers dismantle a military position during a continuing redeplo yment of troops near Falougha, east of Beirut.
Sign Up Now "If he doesn't deliver, there will be total political and economic isolat ion of his country. There is a steel-hard consensus in the international community," a senior UN official said. In preparation for the diplomatic confrontation, Roed-Larsen has met over the past week with top US, European and Arab officials to determine t he positions and parameters of action. In a final round of talks, he met yesterday with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and also won backing fr om the Arab League in talks with its secretary general, Amr Mousa, earli er this week -- discussions aimed at leaving Syria no political escape r outes, the source said. The UN official said Roed-Larsen had found "remarkable" support for a t ough showdown with Assad. The fury over Syria's domination of Lebanon fo r almost three decades erupted quickly after the Feb. The timing of Hariri's death, apparently by a car bomb that killed 17 oth ers, happened amid a new US and European effort to promote democracy i n the Middle East. Hariri, who led a growing opposition movement, had ti es to top US, UN, French and Saudi officials, many of whom now champ ion Lebanon as a top priority. Roed-Larsen will tell Assad that he must take four steps, US and UN o fficials say. First, Syria must honor the independent sovereignty of Lebanon and not un dermine its spring elections for a new parliament. Roed-Larsen "will imp rint on everybody that there is a united demand from the international c ommunity for free and fair elections" that will include international ob servers, the UN source said. Second, Assad must provide a complete timeline for a full pullout of troo ps. The international community will accept "sequencing," or a phased wi thdrawal, but it must be expeditious, the source said. Third, Damascus must provide a timeline for the pullout of 5,000 intellig ence agents in Lebanon. Finally, Roed-Larsen will discuss other requirements in Resolution 1559, including the need to disarm and dismantle foreign and domestic militias operating in Lebanon, all of which Syria supports, UN and US offici als said. But the United Nations is prepared to wait until after the ele ction to allow a new Lebanese government to deal with the militia proble m "Clearly the presence of Syrian forces and Syrian intelligence agents is incompatible with a fully fair election, untainted by outside interferen ce. And that's the basis of 1559," State Department deputy spokesman Ada m Ereli said yesterday. The impact of extensive sanctions on Syria could be devastating, US exp erts and oil analysts said "They're very, very worried about being isolated," said Theodore H Katto uf, former US ambassador to Syria. It has a strong overlay of socialism and the limited capitalism is beset by crony ism and corruption.
Plus, the re were all the years of cheap military equipment from the Soviet Union. "When you look around now, who will bail out Syria's economy? The impact of isolation would further weaken a weak economy, lower living and there by increase popular discontent," he added. Syria was worried enough about being isolated after the US Congress pas sed the Syrian Accountability Act -- which called for punitive steps aga inst Damascus -- that it hastily concluded an economic cooperation agree ment with the European Union to have a lifeline, Kattouf said. Comprehensive sanctions have rarely been imposed by the United Nations or large groups of nations. Among the few countries to face widespread eco nomic embargoes and diplomatic sanctions were Iraq during the final deca de of Hussein's rule, North Korea, Libya and Iran during the drawn-out d rama after the US Embassy takeover from 1979 to 1981. Iraq survived the most stringent UN sanctions because it sold oil illeg ally -- including to Syria.
through Lebanon," said Jamal Qureshi, an oil market an alyst at PFC Energy. At a high point in the mid-1990s, Syria produced about 550,000 barrels of oil per day, but now produces about 400,000, and most of it is for dome stic consumption, he added. Syria exports about 150,000 barrels a day fo r an income of $200 million a month, a major source of badly needed fore ign exchange for Syria. "If you could get UN-imposed sanctions, rather than just US sanctions, then it would certainly hurt Syria," Qureshi said. Roed-Larsen will also travel to Lebanon first in a symbolic move before t he Syrian stop to pay respects to Hariri's family. After his talks in Da mascus, he will return to Beirut to meet Lahoud and Prime Minister Omar Karimi, who are aligned with Syria, as well as key leaders of the Lebane se opposition, UN officials said.
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