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| 5/29 |
| 2005/3/3-4 [Politics/Foreign/MiddleEast/Iran, Politics/Foreign/MiddleEast/Others] UID:36514 Activity:high |
3/3 http://csua.org/u/b8v (AP) So ... "diplomats" at an IAEA meeting today said Iran was "starting work" on half-mile deep tunnels of hardened concrete at their premier site for uranium enrichment. The IAEA is pissed that Iran didn't tell them beforehand. Iran also just began construction of a heavy-water nuclear reactor at Arak. Spent fuel from heavy-water reactors is much more easily converted to bomb-grade material. This is in contrast to the Bushehr light-water reactor that Russia helped build. The reactor material for light-water reactors is not easily converted to bomb-grade material, and anyway, Russia said they would cart it all away when they were done and monitor the stuff. Britain, France, and Germany asked Iran nicely not to build the heavy-water plant. So, uh .... what to do? \_ I know! Let's abandon the people of Iraq and Afghanistan and spend another $200 billion getting ourselves into another horrible mess! What do I win? -tom \_ Interestingly, this news came on the same day that Dubya was meeting Condi to talk about offering concessions to Iran to give the EU3 more leverage. the EU3 more leverage. The concessions are: not opposing Iran's WTO entry, and not opposing European sales of civilian aircraft parts to Iran; in exchange for: Iran giving up uranium enrichment. The Arak reactor would produce plutonium, which I believe doesn't need the laborious enrichment step of using hundreds of centrifuges. And, as you might have guessed, heavy- water reactors use unenriched uranium as fuel. The Dubya-Condi meeting was announced at least five days in advance. \_ My prediction of how it will play out: Condi has told Dubya that he REALLY needs the world's support. The U.S. cannot go it alone on Iran. Dubya trusts Condi. She advised him to invade Iraq. The U.S. will be on the same page as the EU3, and will try not to substantively undermine them. Iran will build its tunnels. Iran will say it will never give up the right to enrich uranium. There will be an understanding they won't do it though, nor build more centrifuges; there will be a set limit on centrifuge parts. Arak will not be built. Bushehr will go ahead as the original plan, maybe with plans for another one or two light-water reactors. The IAEA will periodically send people to look in the tunnels. Iran will receive support for WTO entry and other incentives. Freepers will scream and yell. -op \_ Nice "it could go like this analysis", even if it isn't very likely. Keep up the good work. \_ Well, I'm not saying this will be worked out in 6 months. It could take years -- but I believe the U.S. will be resolved to expend all possible options before bombing or a full-scale invasion, the idea being it will need its partners before a full-scale invasion, and bombing would make the situation worse. I do think my prediction is the most likely outcome, and fortunately it seems like the best possible outcome given the players. If you really want to be optimistic, you could say that the essential reason for this whole kissy-kissy make-friends- with-Europe-again thing was a common understanding across the ocean of the need for a united front on Iran. -op \_ I wasn't being sarcastic. I liked your analysis. \_ Yeah, I know. I was just saying it could take a while. -op \_ Okay, I'll also give you a possible "bad" situation: Iran says, screw you all, we know you can't do shit (what with the U.S. being overstretched, and Europe's people ousting their leaders if Blair/Chirac/Schroeder ask for war). The Security Council passes sanctions (with Russia and China abstaining), the U.S. bombs like crazy, a real coalition forms and invades Iran, but the common people in Europe and most Democrats are still mighty pissed, Iran becomes likes Iraq today. -op \_ Watch out there. Population of Iran >> Pop. of Iraq >> Pop. of Sunnis Iraq Same for land area. |
| 5/29 |
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| csua.org/u/b8v -> www.iht.com/bin/print_ipub.php?file=/articles/2005/03/03/news/iran.html VIENNA Iran is using reinforced materials and tunneling deep undergrou nd to store nuclear components - measures meant to make the facility res istant to "bunker busters" and other special weaponry in case of an atta ck, diplomats said Thursday. The diplomats spoke as a 35-country meeting of the UN atomic agency ended more than three days of deliberations focusing on Iran and North Korea, another nation of nuclear concern. An agency review read at the meeting faulted Tehran for starting work on the tunnel at Isfahan without informing the International Atomic Energy Agency beforehand. The review said Iran, following prodding by the IAEA, has over the past f ew months provided "preliminary design information" on the tunnel in the central city that is home to the country's uranium enrichment program, and said construction began in September "to increase capacity, safety a nd security of nuclear material." The IAEA also said Iran was ignoring calls to scrap plans for a heavy wat er reactor and continuing construction. Commenting on that Thursday, a d iplomat said satellite imagery had revealed that work in the city of Ara k had progressed to the point where crews "were pouring the foundations. " Spent fuel from heavy water reactors can yield significant amounts of bom b-grade plutonium. Asked for details on the tunnel, a diplomat familiar with Iran's dossier said parts of it would run as deep as nearly one kilometer, or about hal f a mile, below ground and would be constructed of hardened concrete and other special materials meant to withstand severe air attacks. Other diplomats said such moves were motivated by Iranian concerns of a s trike by the United States or Israel; both countries accuse Iran of tryi ng to secretly build nuclear weapons. Hundreds of bunker busters were used in US airstrikes on hostile fortif ied underground command centers, living quarters and storage areas in Af ghanistan and Iran. Last year Israel said it was buying about 5,000 smart bombs from Washingt on, including 500 1-ton bunker busters capable of destroying concrete wa lls as thick as two meters, or six feet, fueling speculation of possible preparation for an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. While not ruling out the possibility of a US attack, Washington has ton ed down its rhetoric against Iran. Washington is awaiting the results of European negotiations aimed at getting Tehran to renounce all plans to enrich uranium in exchange for economic concessions and other forms of s upport - and is even considering backing such incentives. Uranium enrichment is "dual use," which means it can generate fuel for nu clear power as well as form the core of warheads. President George W Bush said fears that Washington was preparing an atta ck were "ridiculous," but he also said last week that "all options are o n the table." Iran links its fear of an attack to a decision, made during a debate at t he Vienna meeting, a gathering of the board of governors of the IAEA, to bar UN nuclear inspectors from some sensitive sites. Suggesting that leaks could be exploited by Iran's enemies, a senior Iran ian envoy, Sirous Nasseri, said Tehran's worries about "confidentiality of information" gathered on such visits "are more intense in view of pot ential threats of military strikes" against facilities visited by the ag ency. Earlier, Mohamed ElBaradei, the director general of the IAEA, said outsid e the meeting that the "ball is very much in Iran's court to come clean" by cooperating to clear lingering suspicions about possible nuclear wea pons ambitions. Still, the agency has not been able to support US asse rtions that Iran's programs are aimed at making nuclear weapons. On North Korea, the agency's other main concern, the meeting urged Pyongy ang to return to six-party negotiations over its nuclear program, and to let the agency return to monitoring its atomic activities. The threat represented by North Korea is "a serious challenge" to "peace and stability in Northeast Asia," and to attempts to control the global spread of nuclear weapons, said a board statement issued Thursday. In a separate attempt to defuse the North Korean threat, top US and Chi nese officials in Seoul discussed tactics meant to lure Pyongyang back t o the multiparty talks. International efforts to bring North Korea back to the discussions have g ained urgency since Pyongyang said on Feb. |