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NBC NEWS NEW YORK -- Osama bin Laden, Saudi-born millionaire turned Islamic terror chieftain, has been on the radar of the United States since the days when both he and the CIA were fighting the Soviet Army in Afghanistan. NBC News investigative producer Robert Windrem has tracked bin Ladens activities since the mid-1990s.
Interactive: Wanted: Osama bin Laden Where is Osama bin Laden? The US has followed leads putting bin Laden in a wide variety of places in the Islamic world, from Yemen to Saudi Arabia to Iran. The last definitive evidence of his location was lost at the Afghan border with Pakistan in December 2001, when a voice believed to be his was last overheard in Tora Bora. In late 2001, combined US military and intelligence operatives in Afghanistan searched the mountainous regions of western Pakistan, where they had picked up a pattern of phone communication between bin Laden and friends. Most intelligence analysts think bin Laden is still holed up in Pakistan's treacherous border zone. An audio tape recording of bin Laden has proved that he was alive at least till late October, 2002.
Go to top How often does US intelligence know where he is? There are days and days where we don't know where he is," said one US official. On other days, the United States has "different degrees of specificity as to where he is. By late 2002, when an audio tape proved he had survived the Afghan campaign, US agents concluded that bin Laden is hiding in a locale where he doesn't move around much. Photo reconnaissance has not captured any "signatures" showing regular movement by guards or vehicles that might belong to bin Laden. While some 1,100 CIA analysts and covert operatives staff the terrorism hunt, operating out of Virginia, there are about 50 special officers who focus solely on the terrorist leader.
During his time in Afghanistan, bin Laden regularly varied the details of his movements. He varied not only the number of vehicles in his convoys, for example, but also the type of vehicle as well. On some travels, he gave his entourage hours' notice of his departure. US experts believe only a hard core of no more than 20 dedicated guards knows of his presence, and they are pledged to die rather than give him up.
His biggest problem remains communications, which the United States has successfully compromised during his time in Afghanistan. For a time, he used satellite phones, but that ended after a leak revealed that the US was listening in. More simple methods followed, primarily based on couriers. Bin Laden's couriers often carry encrypted floppy disks and meet in third countries. Once in the hands of the target nation's cell, the disk is de-encrypted. He has also used faxes from remote locations and in some cases, Internet-based e-mail. In addition to encryption, al-Qaida has used various code words and aliases to disguise identities. Bin Laden has been described in al-Qaida communications as "the Sheikh," "Hajj," "Abu Abdullah" and "the Director." Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, mastermind of the embassy bombings, used at least three aliases. Ramzi Yousef, mastermind of the World Trade Center, used 15, as well as 11 passports. One law enforcement source said al-Qaida has been trying to recruit Americans as couriers, knowing an American passport is easier to use worldwide. Currently, bin Laden is believed to be hiding in Pakistan. Personal couriers riding on motorcycles and buses apparently pass messages from bin Laden in the tribal areas to al-Qaida's hideouts in Pakistani cities like Peshawar and Karachi.
US officials had hoped not, but the November 2002 audio tape bearing his voice seemed to prove otherwise. Officials doubt he is moving around much now, but they concede that he may have altered his appearance, and that would make such movements harder to detect.
Go to top How is bin Laden's terror network, al-Qaida, structured? Bin Laden is the undisputed leader, called "emir" or "prince" by his followers, who must take a sworn oath to him, violation of which is punishable by death. Beneath him is the "shura al-majlis" or "consultative council," which includes his top lieutenants. His two aides are Egyptians: Ayman al-Zawahiri, a physician and leader of al-Jihad, the violent Egyptian group responsible for the Luxor tourist massacre in 1995. Muhammed Atef, his military commander, also served in al-Jihad. A "fatwah" committee of the council makes the decisions to carry out terrorist attacks.
Al-Qaida is believed to have operations in 60 countries, active cells in 20, including the United States. It is also believed to operate training centers in both Afghanistan and Sudan, the first beginning operations in 1994 with representatives from Egyptian, Algerian, Tunisian and Palestinian extremist groups. Among the countries or regions identified as having active cells of al-Qaida are Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kosovo, Chechnya, Philippines, Egypt, Tunisia.
Its operations are meticulous, with some plans in the works for months if not years. They are also clever, and bin Laden himself is very much hands-on. Some examples: * The 1993 World Trade Center bombers cased the twin towers multiple times, looking not just at security but the points under the trade center where an explosion could do the most damage. Similarly, bin Laden operatives videotaped security arrangements at President Clinton's 1994 visit to Manila, knowing he had already committed to visiting the Philippine capital for an Asian-Pacific summit two years later. "He may have begun as a venture capitalist for terrorism," said one high-ranking intelligence officer of his evolution as a terrorist. "But there is no doubt now that he is operating like a CEO."
Go to top How long is an operation in the planning stages? The minimum appears to be four to six months, with some plans evolving over years. The surveillance of the East Africa embassy bombings began in 1993, five years before the bombing was carried out.
Each operation has a planning cell and an execution cell, with the execution cell arriving on the scene in some cases only weeks before the attack is carried out. In most cases, like the 1993 World Trade Center bombing and the embassy bombings, an outsider recruits local country nationals to operate as a cell. In rare cases are the bombers -- either the planners or the operators -- older than 30. At the time of the two bombings, the masterminds were both 25. Plans are made in one location, then the bomb is made in another. In the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, the planning took place in a Jersey City, NJ, apartment, the materials were stored in a self-storage facility and the bomb was put together in a garage. Similarly in Nairobi, the planning was done at a run-down hotel in downtown, while the bomb was put together in a suburban villa.
"Terrorism is not an expensive sport," said one senior Treasury Department official who tracks terrorists' money. The total cost of the 1993 World Trade Center attack amounted to around $18,000, including purchase of equipment, rental of the van used in the bombing, purchase of a car, rental of two apartments, a garage and the self-storage space as well as plane tickets. Although at the time of the embassy bombings, the CIA and others pegged bin Laden's wealth at $300 million, subsequent intelligence gathering has resulted in a significant reduction of the estimate, although the number is still in the tens of millions.
Go to top Does he focus on one target at a time or simultaneously plan various attacks? Said one official of his recent planning, "He is planning several hits, and at some point he's going to break through." US officials note that the embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania were to be accompanied by other, near-simultaneous bombings in other world capitals. One in Tirana, Albania, was foiled days before it took place, so a series of coordinated attacks is well within his operational capabilities. In a November 2002 audio recording, bin Laden warned of spectacular' attacks against America and its allies. Officials say they believe some of these attacks might already have been in the planning stages.
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