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| 5/25 |
| 2005/1/31 [Politics/Foreign/MiddleEast/Iraq] UID:35991 Activity:nil |
1/31 I thought it was interesting how NYT in earlier reports painted a very
rosy picture on Sunni turnout, and LAT later came out with numbers
which didn't fit the picture:
Quoth NYT: "The figure [55 to 60 percent] was based on national
returns, Mr. Ayar said, and included the provinces of Anbar and
Nineveh, which have large Sunni populations. The predicted low
turnout in Anbar, a hotspot of Sunni resistance to the American
occupation, was exceeded to such an extent that extra voting
materials had to be rushed to outlying villages, where long
lines were formed at polling stations, Mr. Ayar said...
Even in the so-called Sunni Triangle people voted, too. In
Baquba, 60 miles north of Baghdad, all the polling stations that
reported indicated a huge turnout. In Mosul, the restive city
to the north, large turnouts were reported, even in the Sunni
Muslim areas, and despite threats and scattered attacks with
bombs, mortars and small arms fire."
http://csua.org/u/aws
\_ Updated news --
The fact that polling stations indicated a "huge turnout" in
Baqubah, "large turnouts" in Mosul, and other Sunni areas
most likely came from there being few polling centers there:
"Voting was almost nonexistent in the largely Sunni provinces
of Al Anbar, Salahuddin, Nineveh and Diyala, Western
officials said. For instance, in Baqubah, a city of 300,000
north of Baghdad that has a substantial Sunni population,
just 17,000 people voted." [~ 12% turnout, Baqubah]
http://csua.org/u/awu (LA Times, 1/31 Monday)
"But some U.S. officials estimated that 175,000 had come out
in Nineveh province, of which Mosul is the capital. About
54,000 voters were said to have turned out in the city of 1.8
million." [~ 6% turnout, Mosul]
http://csua.org/u/awv (LA Times, 1/31 Monday)
(If you say half the people in each city are kids, then you'd
have 12% and 6% turnout among Sunnis.) |
| 5/25 |
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| csua.org/u/aws -> www.nytimes.com/2005/01/30/international/middleeast/30cnd-iraq.html?hp&ex=1107147600&en=562b2d104653f499&ei=5094&partner=homepage Pool photo by Andrew Parsons Vote-counting began by candelight amid power cuts in Basra. Insurgent Attacks in Baghdad and Elsewhere Kill at Least 24 By DEXTER FILKINS and JOHN F BURNS Published: January 30, 2005 B AGHDAD, Iraq, Jan. American officials were showing confidence that today was going to be a b ig success, despite attacks in Baghdad and other parts of the country th at took at least two dozen lives. The Interior Ministry said 36 people h ad been killed in attacks, Agence France-Presse reported. But the violence did not seem to have deterred most Iraqis. In Baghdad, B asra in the South, the holy Shiite city of Najaf and even the restive No rthern city of Mosul, Iraqi civilians crowded the polling sites, navigat ing their way through tight security and sometimes proudly displaying th e deep blue ink stain on their fingers that confirmed they had voted. The chairman of the Independent Election Commission of Iraq, Fareed Ayar, said as many as 8 million people turned out to vote, or between 55 perc ent and 60 percent of those registered to cast ballots. If 8 million tur ns out to be the final figure, that would represent 57 percent of voters . The figure was based on national returns, Mr Ayar said, and included the provinces of Anbar and Nineveh, which have large Sunni populations. The predicted low turnout in Anbar, a hotspot of Sunni resistance to the Am erican occupation, was exceeded to such an extent that extra voting mate rials had to be rushed to outlying villages, where long lines were forme d at polling stations, Mr Ayar said. Polling stations closed at 5 pm Iraqi time, or 9 am Eastern time. Preliminary voting figures are expected to be known Monday or Tuesday, al though final results will not be available for about 10 days. In Washington, President Bush called the election a "resounding success" and asserted that "by participating in free elections, the Iraqi people have firmly rejected the anti-democratic ideology of the terrorists." A British C-130 Hercules military transport plane crashed near Balad, 35 miles northwest of Baghdad, a Min istry of Defense spokesman in London said. The spokesman said the plane crashed at 5:25 pm Iraqi time. "This country and the wider world wil l never forget them," he said. The streets of Baghdad were closed to traffic, but full of children playi ng soccer, and men and women walking, some carrying babies. They dropped their ballots into boxes even a s continuous mortar shells started exploding at about noon. Thirty civilians and six police officers died in mortar attacks and suici de bombings around the country, the Interior Minister reported, accordin g to AFP Twenty-two of the deaths occurred in Baghdad, Reuters report ed, where mortar attacks took three lives and 19 people were killed by s uicide bombers. At least 29 were wounded in the attacks in the capital, Reuters said. But if the insurgents wanted to stop people in Baghdad from voting, they failed. The voters were comp letely defiant, and there was a feeling that the people of Baghdad, show ing a new, positive attitude, had turned a corner. No one was claiming that the insurgency was over or that the deadly attac ks would end. But the atmosphere in this usually grim capital, a city at war and an ethnic microcosm of the country, had changed, with people dr essed in their finest clothes to go to the polls in what was generally a convivial mood. Mike Murray of the First Cavalry Regi ment, said outside a polling station in Karada, who added that the scene in Karada was essentially true for the whole area. In Khadamiya, a mixed area in northwest Baghdad, the turnout was also lar ge, with some representatives of political parties saying the turnout co uld approach 80 percent. In Baquba, 60 mil es north of Baghdad, all the polling stations that reported indicated a huge turnout. In Mosul, the restive city to the north, large turnouts were reported, ev en in the Sunni Muslim areas, and despite threats and scattered attacks with bombs, mortars and small arms fire. Carter Ham, the American commander in Mosul , said after he arrived at the election coordination center. By late afternoon, Maj Anthony Cruz, the American liaison officer with t he electoral commission in Mosul, said that there were thousands of vote rs appearing at each polling center "across the board." |
| csua.org/u/awu -> www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/iraq/la-fg-whatnext31jan31,0,147547.story?coll=la-home-headlines By Alissa J Rubin, Times Staff Writer BAGHDAD Reversing decades of political dominance by minority Sunni Arab s, Shiites and Kurds probably won the most seats in Sunday's national as sembly election. The voting seems almost certain to guarantee that Iraq's new prime minist er will be a Shiite Muslim, the majority group in Iraq. But beyond that, it is not yet known how the newfound power of Shiites will translate in to policy, because there are sharp ideological divisions between religio us and secular members of the sect. advertisement Though tabulating the vote is expected to take several days, the patterns of voting Sunday were clear: The plurality, if not the majority, of sea ts in the transitional 275-member national assembly will be held by Shii tes on the United Iraqi Alliance list, put together at the behest of Gra nd Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the country's top Shiite cleric. Voting was especially strong in the southern provinces, where there was b road support for the list, which includes both religious figures and sec ular Shiites. Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi's list, which includes many secular Sh iites as well as some Sunnis, was expected to win about 20% of the vote. The two major Kurdish parties the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and th e Kurdish Democratic Party, which combined on a single slate were also expected to garner about 20% of the vote, according to Iraqi politician s, diplomats and election observers. Overall, however, few Sunni Arabs were expected to win seats because many people in Sunni areas boycotted the polls or were too afraid of violenc e to vote. The insurgency has been strongest in central Iraq, where most of Iraq's Sunni Arabs live. Voting was almost nonexistent in the largely Sunni provinces of Al Anbar, Salahuddin, Nineveh and Diyala, Western officials said. For instance, i n Baqubah, a city of 300,000 north of Baghdad that has a substantial Sun ni population, just 17,000 people voted. The one exception to the low turnout in central Iraq was Baghdad, Western officials said. Low turnout had been expected in the capital, which has a number of mixed Sunni-Shiite neighborhoods. But it was running at mor e than 65%, according to early estimates, and a number of Sunnis appeare d to be voting. Politicians are waiting to see exactly what portion of the total votes th ey win in order to determine how much leverage they have to demand minis terial posts or one of the top jobs, such as prime minister. The process of forming a government will give Iraqis a taste of participa tory democracy for the first time. "There will be horse-trading and uncertainty and politics, and that is su ccess," said Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih, who ran on the Kurdish slate. Under the Iraqi election system, each voter selected a slate of candidate s The number of seats each slate receives in the assembly will be deter mined by the slate's share of the total votes cast. For example, if a sl ate won 20% of the vote, it would get 55 of the 275 seats. The top 55 na mes on the slate's list of candidates would enter the assembly. The chief responsibility of the newly elected members of the transitional assembly will be to oversee the drafting of the Iraqi constitution. It will be a challenge to find ways to bring Sunnis into that process. For the moment, the public stance among many leading Shiite candidates is to be inclusive. "We think it's very important that the constitution be written by all Ira qis and for all Iraqis," said Hussein Shahristani, a nuclear scientist w ho has one of the top slots on the United Iraqi Alliance list. But before a constitution is drafted, the assembly must choose a presiden cy council, which will include a president and two vice presidents. The council will pick a prime minister, who in turn will select the governme nt Cabinet ministers. The three council seats and the post of prime minister are the chief poli tical prizes, along with speaker of the assembly. Other choice posts inc lude the most powerful ministries, such as interior, defense, finance an d health. Because the assembly must approve the presidency council, the prime minis ter and the Cabinet, it is widely expected that all the posts will be wo rked out and then put before the legislators as a single package. Members of the United Iraqi Alliance already are thinking about how to in clude some Sunnis in the government. Ahmad Chalabi, who holds a high pos ition on the slate and was a longtime member of the Iraqi opposition tha t sought to overthrow Saddam Hussein, said he was confident that a Sunni would get a high position. "A Sunni will get one of the top three jobs: the presidency, the prime mi nister's job or the speaker of assembly," Chalabi said. "My view is that the speaker of the assembly is the most important job because the assem bly will run the show." The other chief role for Sunnis will be on the committee that drafts the constitution; Sunnis already have indicated they would accept seats on t hat panel. Most of the Sunnis selected for such posts probably will be chosen from a mong those elected to the national assembly. That would give moderate Su nnis representation, but may do little to draw in the vast number of Sun nis who feel estranged from the political process. "Tomorrow the insurgency is still going to be there, and we're still goin g to have to deal with the issue of Sunni alienation," a Western officia l said. In addition to the United Iraqi Alliance, Allawi's slate and the Kurdish group, three other slates are likely to hold some sway in the new govern ment: the Communist Party; the Iraqi Independent Democrats, led by elder statesman Adnan Pachachi; and Iraqiyoon, led by interim President Ghazi Ajil Yawer. All three of those political groups favor a secular government. How the 11-month process will unfold: Sunday Iraqis elect a transitional national assembly. By mid-February: Election officials count the ballots and certify the win ners. Late February or early March: The 275-member assembly takes office. The assembly can override a presidential council veto with a two -thirds vote. Council of ministers Advise prime minister on governmental matters. |
| csua.org/u/awv -> www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/iraq/la-fg-mosul31jan31,0,114121.story?coll=la-home-headlines By Louise Roug, Times Staff Writer MOSUL, Iraq On a last-minute vote drive Sunday in northwest Mosul, Army Lt. Brock Hershberger approached a man wearing an olive-colored suit an d brown leather shoes. Of the problems that US and Iraqi forces anticipated during the run-up to election day in this insurgent stronghold, long lines to cast ballots were not at the top of the list. advertisement "He won't have to wait more than 15 minutes," Hershberger said. Attendance at Mosul's polling sites was reportedly mixed, and there was n o official tally of voter turnout by day's end. But some US officials estimated that 175,000 had come out in Nineveh province, of which Mosul is the capital. About 54,000 voters were said to have turned out in the city of 18 million. Sporadic violence punctuated the day, but there were no mass casualties o r suicide attacks in the city. "It was tentative at first, but by midday and afternoon, people were comi ng out in droves," said Army Maj David Spencer, intelligence officer wi th the 1st Brigade, 25th Infantry Division. A little before the polls opened at 7 am, a group of paratroopers from the Army's 82nd Airborne Division heard the sound of several explosions near their outpost in northwest Mosul. But the nearby voting station at a school was left unscathed, and by 7:30 the first two voters had cast their ballots. Throughout the day, soldiers monitored the turnout by radio, with reports coming in every half an hour. Joshua Green, a lone Marine who spent the day at the school wi th 30 Iraqi Intervention Force soldiers, seemed pleased. Dressed in the uniform of his Iraqi counterparts, Green sported a mustache he had grown to fit in with them. But at one point there were 200 voters in the school, and by day's end, 2 ,098 people had cast their ballots, more than 100 of them women. "I'm pretty surprised we didn't get hit with anything," Green said. There were several mortar attacks and gunfights throughout the city Sunda y At least two Iraqis were killed. Seven US soldiers were injured whe n an insurgent lobbed a hand grenade over the wall of a polling site in northwest Mosul, just after the gates had closed for the day. In the Arabi neighborhood, roadside explosives were detonated near a conv oy carrying the deputy governor of Mosul, a candidate in the elections. In Sinjar, north of Mosul, gunmen tried to raid a polling station, and in Tall Afar, also north of the city, gunmen and Iraqi soldiers clashed fo r several hours after polls opened, curbing turnout. But close to the Sy rian border, the town of Rabia had an 80% turnout, election officials sa id. "From where we were, to where we got, I think we really pulled off a succ essful run," said Spencer, the intelligence officer, referring to Novemb er and December, when Mosul's police force deserted stations throughout the city and the entire election staff quit. Trying to get out the vote in Mosul, a city with a mixed population of Ar abs, Kurds and Turkmen, Hershberger and his soldiers patrolled throughou t the afternoon, driving by men playing cards in the street and a woman cooking in little pots. Young children took over the roads, playing socc er amid heaps of trash. "I don't know where their parents are," remarked one of the soldiers. At some polling stations, Iraqi soldiers handed out candy to children and election workers helped voters cast their ballots. "I'm young, and I want to live my life in peace and stability," said Basi m Salim Mohammed, an Arab who voted in the Noor neighborhood. "I came here to challenge the Americans and see for myself where their ex cuses will lead to, and when they will leave the country. We want nothin g more than to live in peace," Mohammed said. As the polls closed at 5 pm, teenagers watched in the gray afternoon li ght as large military trucks rolled up to gather election workers and dr ive them, and the ballots, to a central polling site in the city. JT Eldridge surveyed one polling station as soldiers began packin g up barrier material and concertina wire. I n a few days, his outpost would be dismantled, and his soldiers would mo ve to the Marez military base outside the city. Since leaving Baghdad a month ago, he had bathed only once. Now that elec tion day was over, the future held the promise of something more tangibl e than democracy for Eldridge: hot water. "I'm going to have a shower," he said, looking quite content. A special correspondent in the city contributed to this report. |