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| 5/25 |
| 2005/1/19 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:35789 Activity:insanely high |
1/19 The poll, conducted Saturday through Monday, found that the percentage
of Americans who believed the situation in Iraq was "worth going to war
over" had sunk to a new low of 39%. When the same question was asked in
a similar poll in October, 44% said it had been worth going to war.
http://csua.org/u/arb (L.A. Times via Yahoo! News)
20/20 interview last week:
Walters: "But was it worth it if there were no weapons of mass
destruction? Now that we know that that was wrong? Was it worth it?"
Bush: "Oh, absolutely." -troll #1
\_ Why do Americans hate America?
\_ These polls are completely useless. What's the point on
continually posting poll results anyway? You know they're bogus
and you can't rely on them.
\_ Yeah, polling results are all hills and valleys anyway.
Though, I think it was fully intentional that support for the
war peaked at election time, when the only meaningful poll was
taken. Who cares about poll results at all now?
\_ Everyone who wants to live in a democracy cares what
public opinion is. You can bet that Congress pays
attention to the polling numbers, especially for their
district.
\_ No, you moron, the point isn't what the public opinion is,
it's whether polls REFLECT public opinion. Polls
obviously do NOT reflect public opinion. If they did
then John Kerry would be President and we would've
never been in Iraq. Your polls are useless because
the error factor is too large. HOW you poll and
WHO you poll and AT WHAT TIME you poll obviously
affect the outcome. You can't say Poll A reflect
public opinion vs. Poll B because neither of them
do. Also, Congress isn't worried about general
public opinion. Congress isn't elected by the
general public. They're worried about special
interest and their constituency.
\_ well, the Zogby Poll around election time didn't
seem pretty accurate.
It was certainly difficult to tell between Zogby,
Gallup, and others, whose was accurate, and that
point is granted.
point is granted. -troll #1
\_ I think a poll showing 39% support is pretty
definitive, even if the exact number isn't quite
right. It's when things are within a couple of
percentage points (like the popular vote in the
2004 general) that things get squirelly.
\_ I think this argument is self-refuting. Show me
the polls that predicted a large Kerry victory.
\_ Zogby: Kerry 311 EV, Dubya 213 EV
Too close to call: NV (5), CO (9)
-troll #1
\_ Zogby has now blown two elections in a row.
Something tells me he won't be doing polling
for Reuters in 2008.
\_ Zogby was the closest pollster to accurately
predicting the popular vote.
\_ So if they just didn't publish the
electoral vote prediction, they'd actually
be fine. However, ...
-troll #1
\_ Bush 48%, Kerry 47%
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews922.html
Did you just make up this prediction to
try and make yourself look good???
\_ I believe Zogby made both electoral vote
and popular vote predictions. And no, I
did not just "make up" those numbers to look
good. Duh. -troll #1
\_ The individual state polls are notoriously
uneven. I wonder if anyone learned a
lesson about relying on them to make
electoral vote predictions.
\_ The point is that Zogby did not predict a
large Kerry victory, in spite of your blov-
ination to the contrary. Zogby was the most
accurate pollster in 2000. And polls
obviously do mostly represent public opinion
in spite of your statement to the contrary.
In short, everything you stated was 100%
incorrect. Furthermore, you completely
ignored the last sentence of the comment
you were replying to, causing you to
just repeat what I said.
\_ (Nice! You just purged your
"URL then. I don't believe you."!)
google "zogby 311 213".
There's even a dailykos log for you.
The sentence I was replying to was
"Show me the polls that predicted a
large Kerry victory".
My other reply was to "Did you
just make this up ...?"
I believe you are confused. -troll #1
\_ I said "especially for their
district." You said "their
constituency" Those mean the
same things, at least in the
English language. And 48/47
is not a large margin of
victory, no matter how hard
you try to spin it. Why do
you even bother to read polls
if you think they are all
worthless? I believe you
are an querulous ass.
\_ I'm not "their constituency" guy.
I have now marked all my posts with
signage "-troll #1".
See where I say the bit about
Zogby, if they just didn't
publish the electoral vote
prediction, they'd be fine?
-troll #1
\_ So you are defending a guy
don't even agree with? Fine,
you are just querulous then.
\_ I didn't even bother
reading what that guy
said.
Someone said, "Show me the
polls that predicted a large
Kerry victory."
So I did.
And then someone asked
if I made that up, and
I said no. -troll #1
\_ So show me the polls that
predicted a large Kerry
popular vote victory.
\_ There is no such
reputable poll.
-troll #1
\_ This is a freedom Republic, not a euro democracy.
\_ but the democratic underground is fighting back |
| 5/25 |
|
| csua.org/u/arb -> news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/latimests/20050119/ts_latimes/supportforwariniraqhitsnewlow web sites) has c ontinued to erode, but most Americans still are inclined to give the Bus h administration some time to try to stabilize the country before it wit hdraws US troops, the Los Angeles Times Poll has found. Special Coverage The poll, conducted Saturday through Monday, found that the percentage of Americans who believed the situation in Iraq was "worth going to war ov er" had sunk to a new low of 39%. When the same question was asked in a similar poll in October, 44% said it had been worth going to war. But when asked whether the United States should begin withdrawing troops after Iraq's election Jan. More than a third, 37%, said the United States should begin drawing down at least some of its troop strength. Americans are almost evenly divided over how long US forces should stay in Iraq, the poll found: 47% said they would like to see most of the tr oops out within a year, while 49% say they could support a longer deploy ment including 37% who say the troops should remain "as long as it tak es" to secure and stabilize the country. web sites) some time to try to turn the operation int o a success. "We are seeing lower support for the war, but I would have expected it to be even lower given that the main rationale for the war the weapons of mass destruction turned out not to be there," said John Mueller, a political scientist at Ohio State University who is an authority on war time public opinion. Mueller noted that support for the war had been falling gradually since t he United States invaded Iraq in March 2003, but that the erosion had no t produced a majority in favor of early troop withdrawals. "Support for this war is now lower than support for the Vietnam War was a t the Tet offensive," Mueller said, citing the 1968 battles that were a turning point in US public opinion then. In Iraq, he noted, the number of US casualties has been far lower than in Vietnam, a probable reason that public pressure for withdrawal has no t mounted higher. On the other hand, public support for increasing US troop strength in I raq a proposal Sen. Only 4% of respondents said they would favor increas ing American forces after the Iraqi election. Respondents to The Times poll were downbeat about the results of the war in Iraq on several counts. Asked which side the United States or the anti-American insurgents wa s winning the war or if it was a stalemate, 58% said that neither side a ppeared to have the upper hand, while 29% said they believed the United States was winning and 10% said the insurgents were winning. Respondents also were divided on whether the election would help advance democracy in the Middle East, one of the Bush administration's main goal s: 47% said it would probably advance democracy, but 45% said it probabl y would not. But 59% said they favored holding the election on schedule despite fears of violence on election day. Over a third, or 35%, said the vote should be postponed. Almost half, or 45%, said they believed the war had destabilized the Midd le East; In April 200 3, 52% thought that military action against Iraq would stabilize the sit uation in the Middle East. And a large majority, 65%, said they believed the war in Iraq had harmed the United States' image around the world. The Times poll, supervised by polling director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 1,0 33 adults. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percenta ge points. |
| www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews922.html Released: November 01, 2004 Election 2004 Reuters/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll: Bush 48%, Kerry 47%, New Reuters/Zogby Poll Reveals President Bush is holding steady at 48% and Democratic challenger, Senato r John Kerry lost one point, bringing him to 47%, according to a new Reu ters/Zogby daily tracking poll. The poll data this evening has leaners f actored into the overall results. The telephone poll of 1208 likely vote rs was conducted from Friday through Sunday (October 29-31, 2004). Days Until Presidential Election 2 Days 3 Days 4 Days 5 Days 6 Days Presidential Candidates Oct. The real news here is that 18-2 9 year olds favor Kerry 64% to 35%, with 1% for Naderand 0% undecided. When I see a low undecided number it means that group is going to vote. I am factoring this group to be 12% of the total vote -- but it could be higher. Each point it goes higher translates into two-thirds of a perce nt for Kerry -- if these numbers hold up." Zogby International conducted interviews of 1208 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. Slight weights were added to re gion, party, age, race, religion, gender, to more accurately reflect the voting population. In 1996, John Zogby came within one-tenth of 1 percent of the presidentia l result, and was one of the first pollsters to accurately foresee Vice President Al Gores popular-vote victory in 2000. Zogby has polled for Re uters News Agency, the largest news agency in the world. The site provides comprehensive cove rage of the campaigns, including a special video service, which compares the position of both candidates on key poli cy issues. |