Berkeley CSUA MOTD:Entry 34856
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2025/05/25 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
5/25    

2004/11/12 [Politics/Domestic/President/Bush, Politics/Domestic/President/Reagan] UID:34856 Activity:insanely high
11/11   What will the Euro/Dollar ratio be in four years?
        1/1: ..
        1.3/1:
        1.5/1:
        1.8/1: .
        2/1:
        higher:
        \_ if there is a general perception that the dollar is falling,
           would that cause a mass movement of the dollar (many people
           moving their money), which would cause the actual change?
           \_ In general, that is how a market works. People pay for
              what they percieve the value of something is.
              \- while this may be trivially true [like buy low sell high]
                 it's not a theoretically meaningful statement. the "theory"
                 of FX appaches the question either by modeling supply and
                 demand ... like say "portfolio balance theory"or my looking
                 at boundary condition/equillibria [see say uncovered interest
                 parity, purchasing power parity etc]. --psb
           \_ If I wantto invest in Eruos what would be the best way?
              \_ http://www.everbank.com
        \_ Dollar will strengthen
           \_ Can I have some of that crack you're smoking?
              \_ Interest rates will rise and bring the dollar up with
                 them.
                 \_ Interest rate is cyclical.  This dollar correction
                    is a structural correction.
                    is a structural correction.  Lately, the focus has
                    been on the structural need for the dollar to
                    depreciate.  Your quarter point interest rate
                    increases would likely not be enough to convince
                    people not to dump the dollar if they are
                    convinced the dollar is going to drop by another 20 or
                    30 percent.
                    \_ This is rather circular. It's going to drop because
                       people think it will drop. Yes, it plays to how the
                       market works but WHY would people think it is going
                       to drop? It will rise when it again becomes a
                       good investment, which will be when interest rates
                       rise.
                       \_ No it isn't circular.  I was just pointing
                          out that interest rate as a cause of fluctuation of
                          the dollar is cyclical.  And that there are
                          other structural reasons that would likely cause
                          the dollar to fall.  The most important of these
                          is the continuing trade deficit.  Another reason
                          is that China's economy is overheating and
                          they are raising interest rate for the RMB,
                          and thinking hard about letting the RMB
                          appreciate, which would likely lead to other
                          asian currencies appreciating.
                          \_ The structural reasons *have* caused the
                             dollar to fall. The question is: Where will
                             it be in 4 years? I predict up.
                          \_ The structural reasons *have* caused the
                             dollar to fall. The question is: Where will
                             it be in 4 years? I predict up.
                       \_ We are running massive budget and trade deficits.
                          \_ Was the dollar low or high in the 1980s
                             when Reagan was doing the same thing?
                          Bush says "deficits don't matter" and intends
                          to pile up even deeper deficits. This is all
                          hard on the dollar.
                          \_ Was the dollar low or high in the 1980s
                             when Reagan was doing the same thing?
2025/05/25 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
5/25    

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