10/30 http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,137163,00.html
Bush over Kerry by 2 points, Kerry is fucked despite help
from Clinton and OBL.
\_ A Fox poll of Fox viewers thinks Bush will win? That's insane.
\_ No you moron. An Opinion Dynamics poll. Similar to ABC polls,
etc. however 2 points in one poll (inside margin of error)
doesn't matter. Basically it's a tie in many states and we won't
really know until Tuesday (or Tuesday + a few weeks) who the
winner will be.
\_ *shrug* Zogby (who nailed 2000, and has a very good track
record) puts Kerry up by 1 in a 3 day tracking poll. Polls are
a useful tool, but you have to remember 1) the pollster may
be biased,and 2) polls are very coarse tools. -mice
\_ Polls are not useful in this election, given that we know
it will be very close. -- ilyas
\_ Well, yeah -- I thought that was rather obvious from
the context, but thanks for clarifying. -mice
\_ sheesh, sorry. -- ilyas
\_ Um, no. Zogby did not nail 2000, according to the records
I've seen (multiple places). Are you going to back that
claim up?
\_ Okay, you got me: He predicted Gore would win. I think
I was meaning the popular vote. You can google that
and find scads of links. My bad. -mice
\_ Last I checked Zogby polling at this time (a few days
before the election 2000) had Bush ahead in the
popular vote.
\_ 1) Yes and you can't ever know in which direction, 2) yes.
As far as Zogby goes, he did well in 1996 and "ok" in
2000. However, in 2000, the other pollsters stopped
polling before the weekend when the DUI claims were made
so of course their polls don't catch that. Zogby
continued polling through that period. His numbers were
similar to everyone else's pre-DUI Surprise. In 2002, his
predictions simply sucked. He may or may not know WTF
he's talking about this time. The likely voter numbers
are the most random ones between pollsters because they're
all using very different models to determine who is likely
to vote or not. You, me, Zogby, and everyone else can
make a guess, but no one really knows and *can't* know,
that's why we have an actual election and don't just ask
some pollsters to pick the President.
\_ Good point. Of course, if I was willing to let a
(potentially biased and coarse) pollster decide my
vote for me, I'd deserve to be shot. -mice |
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