10/29   Election bet (turnout, %pop-KE, %pop-BC, Winner's Electoral Count)
        120M, 52, 48, 306 --scotsman
        \_ is this from anywhere or just a motd prediction?
           \_ motd prediction
        \_ with BC still winning?
           \_ I'm not _that_ prescient.
        \_ 105M, 48.4 (GL), 47.9, 271-266 (BC over GL) -- 2k numbers
        \_ 125M, 48, 49, 273-265 (KE over BC)
           \_ With 125M, you think the popular vote will go to bush?
        \_ 115M, 50, 49, 271 (bc over ke)     -mice
           \_ Ilya, you overwrote mice.
              \_ sorry.
                 \_ This is actually easy to avoid if you have even a little
                    interest in being courteous.
                    \_ Far be it from me to nudge people in a more enlightened
                       direction, but perhaps your energies would be better
                       spent reeducating the countless motd assholes who
                       delete active threads, sign other people's names,
                       spew low-grade anonymous bile, and countless other
                       spew low-grade anonymous bile, and do countless other
                       things that make the motd our favorite world-writable
                       file.  But no, it's much more important to moralize
                       me and my editor. -- ilyas
                       \_ Because it's easy to be courteous in this way --
                          it costs only a little time.  If even the easy
                          things to correct are out of reach, then what hope
                          is there for the more pathological things?  Esp in
                          the crowd that purports to care...
                          \_ Ok, friend, tell you what.  I consider myself
                             properly moralized now.  I suggest aaron as your
                             next target.  He seems to have a problem with
                             long winded violent fantasies, and I think he is
                             ready for your brand of gentle reproach.  I
                             think his soul can yet be saved! -- ilyas
                             think his soul can yet be saved!  I hope you are
                             an equal opportunity moralizer, and not someone
                             who designated little old me as his "project."
                               -- ilyas
                             \_ Uhm, it's not about morals, it's about not
                                stomping other people's posts (easy to avoid)
                                while still claiming to be the champion of
                                the motd and the enemy of anonymous cowards
                                etc.  If it'll make you feel better, I can
                                swear at you and call you names and litter the
                                screen with ad hominem, but I figured asking
                                you politely not to contribute to the problem
                                you're always complaining about might be worth
                                a try.
                                \_ Well, actually, post-overwriting is one of
                                   the few problems I am NOT complaining about.
                                   (The reason I don't is that during busy
                                   editing times, writing becomes a game
                                   theory thing of defectors/cooperators, and
                                   it's not always defensible to stay a
                                   cooperator).
                                   \_ I don't have this problem, and I bet I
                                      post way more than you do.  I think this
                                      is merely justification to dodge the
                                      blame and maintain self-righteousness.
                                      \_ Haven't you heard?  Half of the motd
                                         posts are actually mine.  You must
                                         be the other half.  All I am going to
                                         say is, motd is during busy times like
                                         a conversation with a lot of people,
                                         and you need to raise your voice to
                                         get a word in.  If you haven't
                                         done something like that yourself
                                         in a busy conversation, I admire
                                         your restraint and condemn your
                                         veracity (since you would be lying
                                         through your teeth). -- ilyas
                                         \_ MOTD != conversation.  I haven't
                                            overwritten a post on motd in
                                            some time (I don't force-save
                                            if the file changed under me).
                                            This comparison really IS a straw
                                            man.  Nice try, but no banana.
                                            (Though I make no claims about
                                            conversation -- as if that's even
                                            a little bit relevant)
                                            \_ During busy times, MOTD is
                                               _worse_ because people are good
                                               at picking out things they want
                                               from multiple parallel
                                               conversations.  MOTD is serial.
                                               When a lot of people are
                                               excitedly talking, the
                                               conversations get louder, but
                                               on the MOTD most people spinlock.
                                               If you haven't had cases where
                                               the file is literally being
                                               edited continuously for many
                                               minutes at a time, you haven't
                                               been posting as much as you say.
                                                 -- ilyas
                                               \_ I'm going home now.  You win.
                                                  \_ *sigh*.  I am not trying
                                                     to say I am not being
                                                     discourteous, I am
                                                     pleading for a sense of
                                                     perspective.  There are
                                                     nastier things going on
                                                     on the motd every day,
                                                     and they don't seem to
                                                     generate huge threads.
                                                     Maybe it's something to
                                                     do with me. -- ilyas
                                                     \_ 1) The other guy has to
                                                        be willing to listen
                                                        for there to be a
                                                        dialogue.  2) You're
                                                        not the only person I
                                                        ding for 'bad things on
                                                        the MOTD' -- I'm just
                                                        civil to you more often
                                                        than most. 3) Never
                                                        argue with drunks or
                                                        madmen.  4) of
                                                        COURSE it's all your
                                                        fault.  I'm shocked
                                                        that you even have to
                                                        ask that.  When did you
                                                        stop beating your wife?
                                                        Maybe if you stopped
                                                        clubbing baby seals
                                                        and eating babies some
                                                        good karma would come
                                                        to you instead.  I
                                                        mean, when western
                                                        civilization falls, we
                                                        all know that you'll be
                                                        the one to blame.
                                                     \_ Keep following that
                                                        train of thought.
                                                        It is correct.
                                   I tend to complain about things that make it
                                   to /etc/motd and THEN mysteriously
                                   disappear.  Anyways, I still think you
                                   should become an equal opportunity crusader,
                                   and start tracking down motd assholes.
                                     -- ilyas
                                   \_ Look, you either get what I'm saying or
                                      you don't (or you're being egregiously
                                      argumentative).  You're not my 'project'
                                      so really, it doesn't matter all that
                                      much -- but it seems senseless to
                                      complain about censorship and then
                                      habitualize a behavior that's very very
                                      easily confused with censorship to those
                                      that don't live in your head.
                                      Seriously, there's just no way to win
                                      with you is there?  Swear at you and
                                      you declare the speaker an anonymous
                                      coward etc, ask you politely to do
                                      something (and give an explanation out
                                      of common courtesy) and you declare the
                                      speaker a moralizer with hints of
                                      hypocrisy as well.   *sheesh*
                                      \_ (a) If you view conversations in
                                         win/lose terms, you need to grow up.
                                         (b) If you honestly don't see the
                                         difference between stamping changes
                                         before they make it to /etc/motd, and
                                         purposefully nuking stuff from
                                         /etc/motd, then i am sorry but we
                                         don't have enough common ground to
                                         continue.
                                         (c) I think you should probably just
                                         leave me be. -- ilyas
                                         \_ This is all good, and I have no
                                            problem with what you're both
                                            saying, but can you please take it
                                            to email?  The motd is getting
                                                very narrow at the bottom
                                                        because it's so long
                                                                and so
                                                                  unwieldy
                                                                        -John
                             \_ i'm not pp, but aaron's stuff that annoys you
                                is signed and annoying only because of content,
                                easily ignored and generally only on wall.
                                it's not relevant to The MOTD Experience(TM).
        \_ I don't get: "BC"? ---> nevermind, I'm stupid.
        \_ 115M, 49, 48, 271 (bc over ke)     -mice
        \_ ???M, 52, 46, 272 BC over KE
        \_ Everyone needs to remember 2 things: 50% is not require to win, and
           there are other guys running are polling between 1% and 4% total
           depending on the poll and the state polled.
        \_ And now some smarter people's numerical predictions: ;-)
 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/opinion/outlook/outlookCrystalBall04.html
           http://csua.org/u/9qj (washingtonpost.com opinion)
                \_ You're missing the point.  We've all been reading other
                   people's predictions and maps and polls and crap for months.
                   It's our turn to make our own predictions.
                   \_ Me:  Tongue in cheek (smiley added)
                      You:  Insecure
                      \_ You came back to edit your post after I replied and I'm
                         the insecure one?  Okey dokey, Mr. Stable.
        \_ 130M, 51.5, 46, 331-207 KE wins -jctwu
        \_ 135M, 51, 51, unknown but with 4 weeks of riot
           \_ I'm changing my bet to match this person's.
        \_ How many registered voters are there out there?
           \_ Alive, dead, convicts, what?
              \_ Any! Nationally!  I've been googling and searching the FEC
                 site, but I get no info on how many overall registered voters
                 there are.  Help!