andrewsullivan.com
Friday, October 29, 2004 SO HE'S ALIVE II: Some of you have had the opposite reaction to the OBL t ape. Here's a typical email: Kerry's sharpest critique is that we have not done enough kill or captur e bin Laden. Seeing bin Laden alive and well reinforces--to me at least --that the president has not done his job. Because I had no reason to b elieve that bin Laden was dead before this video, seeing him now doesn' t make me more afraid of him or of an attack. And rather that making me recall good feelings about the president in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, I am filled with renewed emotions of disappointment in him. Reme mber: Bush is the one that said he wanted bin Laden "dead or alive" and that he "can ran but not hide." Although I suspect it will help Bush a lot, my hope is that it will have no effect either way. I don't w ant that murderous bastard to have any say on what this democracy decide s I just hope that whoever gets elected next Tuesday manages to find an d kill him.
The parroting of idiotic Michael Moore points was a little pathetic for an alleged spiritual mastermind. And the re-calibration of the rationale for 9/11 - again retroactively talking of Palestinians - was the usual vile opportunism. Any reminder of the 9 /11 attacks will provoke a national rallying to the commander-in-chief. The deep emotional bond so many of us formed with the president back the n is Bush's strongest weapon in this election, and OBL has just revived it. I have a feeling that this will tip the election decisively toward the incumbent. A few hours ago, I thought Ker ry was headed for victory. I also have a sinki ng feeling that that was entirely bin Laden's objective.
surprising supporters for the president amng Ara b regimes. Money quote: The Iraq quagmire may also explain why Hasan Rowhani and some other Iran ian officials (though not, by any means, all of them) would like Bush t o have a second term. So long as the US is bogged down in Iraq, it cann ot seriously contemplate toppling the regime in Iran - or, for that mat ter, in Syria. Prospects for the US remaining bogged down look rather b etter under Bush than Kerry.
take on the election: Someone asked me the other day why I supported President Bush, "aside fr om the family thing" as he put it. I said I was supporting him because I thought he understood The Issue at stake better than anyone alive. And that he was on the right side of that issue from day one and every day thereafter. And tha t he was devoted to committing this nation to a course of offensive eng agement with the terror apparatus that might, just might, save us all h ere in the United States. The issue, of course, is the fight against Al Qaeda, its associates, enablers and like-mindeds. The President Bush I read about in the papers and the newsweeklies and t he blogs bears almost no resemblance to the President Bush I know and v isit with from time to time. He is decent and honest and true, which cannot be said of man y of his critics. Because over-riding everything is the issue and on this iss ue President Bush has been steadfast and strong and right as rain, whil e his opponent has rambled and waffled and weaseled every which way. Our enemies will brace for four more years of hell if Bush is re-elected . As I've said before, it's a choice between incompetenc e and irresolution. The question we have to ask is: can we afford four m ore years like the last one, when our enemies foiled us in Iraq, when ou r intelligence fell apart, when our moral standing was undermined, and w hen our president seemed unable even to recognize difficulties, let alon e fix them? Bush is a gambl e whose recent performance is execrable. I begrudge no one an honest dec ision, and I won't be heartbroken by either result.
Money quo te: I was 24 years old when my mother, through a series of mishaps, found ou t I was gay. My mother came over to where I worked, screaming, and told me I was "dead" to the family. For more than five years after that day, I heard nothing from my family. No birthday cards, no invitations to Christmas or Thanksgiving events. It wasn't just the loss of my immediate family that was difficult, but the loss of my extended family as well. Since my mother refused to be in the same room with me, it forced my aunts and uncles to choose sides . I have not been to a family reunion in more than a decade. There you have the anti-family agenda of the religious right. By next wee k, they will have passed bans on any protections for gay couples in eigh t states.
report on the widespread failure to secure muni tions sites in Iraq: Six months after the fall of Baghdad, a vast Iraqi weapons depot with te ns of thousands of artillery rounds and other explosives remained ungua rded, according to two US aid workers who say they reported looting o f the site to US military officials. Ricardo S Sanchez, the highe st ranking Army officer in Iraq in October 2003 but were told that the United States did not have enough troops to seal off the facility, whic h included more than 60 bunkers packed with munitions. "We were outraged," said Wes Hare, city manager of La Grande, who was wo rking in Iraq as part of a rebuilding program. A colleague who also vis ited the depot, Jerry Kuhaida, said it appeared that the explosives at the Ukhaider Ammunition Storage Area had found their way to insurgents targeting US forces. "There's no question in my mind that the stuff in Ukhaider was used by t errorists," said Kuhaida. But i f you didn't believe there would be an insurgency, why would you guard t hese dumps? There weren't enough troops to maintain order, let alone sec ure hundreds of sites. You can see the logic for the administration's po sition.
Th e Miami Herald's Jim Defede concludes: According to the Herald poll, done by Zogby International, Kerry is posi tioned to win Miami-Dade by anywhere from 90,000 to 100,000 votes. A ma rgin that large in Florida's most populous county would be hard for Bus h to make up across the rest of the state. Now I realize if the poll's margin of error were to fall in the presiden t's favor, Kerry would beat Bush, 53 to 46 percent (instead of 56-43). But even then, because of new voters, Kerry would still walk away with 50,000 more votes than Bush. Between 2000 and 2004, the split between Democrats and Republican is virtually the same in almost every category... The one group that is ra dically different -- and it is why the poll makes sense -- is a shift a mong non-Cuban Hispanics, who are backing Kerry almost two-to-one.
M unitions found in April have the IAEA seal about as solid a proof possib le that they had not been removed before the war. On Aaron Brown last ni ght, David Kay confirmed it, calling it "Game, set and match".
Money quote from ABC: Experts who have studied the images say the barrels on the tape contain the high explosive HMX, and the universal markings on the barrels are c lear that these are highly dangerous explosives. "I talked to a former inspector who's a colleague of mine, and he confirmed that, indeed, the se pictures look just like what he remembers seeing inside those bunker s," said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and Int ernational Security in Washington. The barrels were found inside sealed bunkers, which American soldiers ar e seen on the videotape cutting through. Inspectors from the Internatio nal Atomic Energy Agency sealed the bunkers where the explosives were k ept just before the war began. "The fact that there's a photo of what looks like an IAEA seal means that what's behind those doors is HM X They only sealed bunkers that had HMX in them." After the bunkers were opened, the 101st was not ordered to secure the f acility. A senior officer told ABC News the division would not have had nearly enough soldiers to do so. What we're seeing is the slow exposure of the reality of th e Iraq war.
Tommy Franks last night: "Now, I'll tel l you, I don't know Senator Kerry's plan for victory. I don't know what it is, but I do know -- but I do know that his criticism of military conduct of our global war on terrorism denigrates, disrespects our troops." Is Franks saying tha...
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