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| 5/24 |
| 2004/10/27 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:34379 Activity:insanely high 71%like:34376 |
10/26 Woohoo! Kerry's got the mo!
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=909
http://csua.org/u/9n5 (Post graphic)
\_ Kerry's people have been telling us for a long time that the
polls don't mean anything. Now they do?
\_ Gallup is the poll that is really fucked, at least with their
LV model [restored]
\_ The real poll will be on November 2.
\_ Uh... Zogby's numbers going back:
11 days to go: Bush +2
10 days to go: Bush +2
9 days to go: Bush +3
8 days to go: Bush +3
7 days to go: Bush +1
This is momentum? Please, take Stat 2. This is all well within
the margin of error in each case.
\_ Zogby is weak as you noticed. That's why I helped the op with
the Post URL. -!op
\_ I wonder how much of the Kerry bounce in the last couple of
days is due to Al-Qaqaa. Had NYT/CBS stuck to their original
plan to release the story immediately before the election,
that might have been a decisive blow for Kerry. Now Bush will
have a week to recover, and he has proven to be resilient and
slippery in the past. So the outcome is less clear.
\_ Are people troubled by the CBS attempt to game the election
by timing the release of the missing munitions story?
\_ No! Any dirty lying trick is ok to beat Bush!
\_ If you could rig the election to get Kerry to win
even if you knew he hadn't really won, would you?
\_ I give this motive a 50/50 chance of being true (not
"It sure looks like it!" or "I doubt it!"). They were
taping interviews and fact checking -- they don't want
another Font-gate. Of course the Republican spin is
that CBS was definitely trying to game the election
after what happened with Rather.
\_ No more troubled than I am by Fox News' obvious
attempt to swing the election for the last two years.
\_ Fox doesn't claim to be neutral. They claim to be
balanced. They put on people from both sides of
every issue. Example: Bush did the O'Reilly show
but Kerry is ducking it. O'R has been trying to get
Kerry for months but he won't go on the air. Is it
somehow biased of Fox or O'R that they aired one and
not the other?
\_ Kerry wouldn't get even treatment. Besides, since
Fox bias is well established, it doesn't make
sense that Kerry would legitimize it and reward it
with his appearance. Your example here is a straw
man. Nobody ever claimed the O'Reilly Bush thing
itself was bias. But O'Reilly has clearly
demonstrated bias in other instances. It's
reasonable to assume Kerry wouldn't have as
respectful a treatment as Bush.
\_ I also think part of it is from the general atmosphere that
a lot of newspapers are endorsing Kerry, or not supporting
Dubya. There is definitely an effect if newspapers which
had endorsed Dubya in the past start looking wavy on
supporting Dubya, and other newspapers remain rock-solid
in solidarity with Kerry.
\_ Newspapers? Do you really truly seriously in your heart
of heart believe that anyone who votes makes their
decision on national well-known figures based on a
newspaper endorsement??
\_ "general atmosphere", "There is definitely an effect"
!= "votes makes their decision ... based on a
newspaper endorsement"
Duh. |
| 5/24 |
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| www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=909 Released: October 27, 2004 Election 2004 Reuters/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll: It's Dj vu; Kerry 47%- Bush 48%, New Reuters/Zogby Poll Reveals Democratic challenger, Senator John Kerry bounces back into a statistical dead-heat race with President George W Bush (Kerry 47%-Bush 48%), acco rding to a new Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll. The poll data this eve ning has leaners factored into the overall results. The telephone poll o f 1203 likely voters was conducted from Sunday through Tuesday (October 24-26, 2004). Kerry has managed to consolidate a big ch unk of his base just as Bush has done on his own behalf. Zogby International conducted interviews of 1203 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. Slight weights were added to re gion, party, age, race, religion, gender, to more accurately reflect the voting population. In 1996, John Zogby came within one-tenth of 1 percent of the presidentia l result. Since 1996, Zogby has polled for Reuters News Agency, the larg est news agency in the world. The site provides comprehensive coverage of the campaigns, incl uding a special video service, which compares the position of both candi dates on key policy issues. |
| csua.org/u/9n5 -> www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/charting.html Presidential Money Race (8/1/04 - 8/31/04) BUSH-CHENEY '04 Cash on Hand (8/31/04) $369 million Total Contributions $185 million Total Disbursements $142 million KERRY-EDWARDS '04 Cash on Hand (8/31/04) $620 million Federal Funds $746 million Total Disbursements $103 million Note: The Bush-Cheney '04 campaign received federal funds shortly after P resident Bush accepted the Republican presidential nomination on Sept. Kerry ac cepted the Democratic nomination July 29 and his campaign was then limit ed to spending only federal funds. Campaign Finance Reports: Party Money Republican National Committee $93,577,251 National Republican Congressional Committee $25,587,757 National Republican Senatorial Committee $22,488,596 TOTAL $141,653,604 Democratic National Committee $55,671,864 Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee $20,848,852 Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee $10,584,957 TOTAL $87,105,673 Most Visited States Updated 10/25/04Tracking of campaign visits started o n March 3, 2004 after it was clear that Sen. John F Kerry was going to be the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. com's Pundits' Picks lists are compiled of races that some of Washington's top non-partisan analysts say are "toss ups" or "too cl ose to call" in November's election. These are the congressional and gub ernatorial races that are likely to be the most hotly contested in the c ountry. For a race to be included on our list, it must be picked by at l east one of these analysts: Charlie Cook, Stuart Rothenberg, Congression al Quarterly's political staff, or Larry Sabato. The numbers next to eac h race indicate the number of analysts that included the race on their l ist. Most E-mailed Content Week of October 18 Here are the five most popular political features sent by washingtonpost. |