10/19 Hey gay, why are you lying to defend your ass and saying GOOG isn't
shortable? It is. Maybe you need a better broker. --gay
\_ it's at $151, bought in at $100 babay!!!
\_ nice! what is your exit strategy?
\_ just got out at $149.8 ..
\_ "With a whale like Ishikawa, he didn't see it as winning
$10,000, he saw it as losing $100,000, so he upped his bets."
\_ Yes, but would BUD DAY short GOOG?
\_ Be patient. Let it rise as much as possible. Kick it on the
way down, not now.
\_ Google's PE is over 200. That's simply insane. If they double
earnings it will bring them in line with Yahoo! at 90 which is
still insanely high. Or they could drop in half in price.
\_ PE is not a very useful metric with a company as young as
Google. -tom
\_ so what's a good metric? revenue growth? Is its
revenue growth that spectacular? I can find companies
with similar revenue growth but a much lower PE.
revenue growth that spectacular? yahoo's revenue
growth is equal if not better and it has a lower
PE.
\_ look, I don't have time to explain basic investing
principles, but I would suggest you project revenues and
earnings for Google 5 years out and see what kind of
valuation that leaves you with. You can't just look at
a column on http://finance.yahoo.com and expect that it's
comparable between two different companies, one of which
has been public for 8 years and has a significantly
different business model. -tom
\_ If it is so young how can we project 5 years out? You
say there isn't enough data to look at PE but then you
want to project that same data 5 years out and make
investment statements on that? Nutty.
\_ What's so superior about Google's business model?
5 years out? Google is not Walmart. 5 years mean lots
of time for various competitors to possibly supplant
google's advantages. I would rather buy stocks of a
companies I have higher confidence would have
higher prices 1 year out. Why would you want to risk
getting into a hole, hoping to climb out of it 5
years out, if ever? Still waiting for the
reason why the the high PE, PEG, PS is justified.
\_ I'm not saying Google's business model is superior,
I'm saying you can't compare them directly with
Yahoo. Or Amazon, for that matter, or either of
those with each other.
I didn't say anything about getting into a hole;
looking 5 years out is just one way to evaluate an
immature company. Certainly, if you don't know
how to evaluate immature companies, you shouldn't
be investing in Google. There's nothing wrong with
sticking to conservative investing; just don't talk
about PE ratios when you don't really know what
you're saying. -tom
\_ You want to project a single set of numbers 5
years into the future? Using what data points
to project the angle? You only have 1 data point.
\_ actually google is reasonably mature already,
and PE ratio is definitely one of the more
important factors to look at. I am not the
op who said the PE is insane. I am just
interested if you know some better metrics
that could be used for evaluating google.
so far, you haven't said anything.
\_ it doesn't matter. there are a lot of stupid people who
like google, and some people taking a free ride up.
don't fight the momentum.
\_ We said that in the late 90s too.
\_ trading on momentum is one way to make money. nothing
wrong with that. it's just not my cup of tea, and
just don't say it's based on fundamentals.
\_ Is it just me or is ~6 million/day really heavy volume this far in?
\_ Nothing is going to happen to GOOG before 2/14 when the lockups
expire.
\_ I thought the lock out already ended?
\_ There are several and the BIG one (>50% of shares) is
2/14. |
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