Berkeley CSUA MOTD:Entry 34191
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2025/05/24 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
5/24    

2004/10/18 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:34191 Activity:moderate
10/18   Jesus this thing is gonna be close.  Zogby has Bush and Kerry tied
        at exactly 45%.  Zogby tends to be far more accurate than Gallup.
        Photo finish indeed.
        http://csua.org/u/9j5
        \_ They do?  How'd Zogby do in the midterm elections?  Zogby got
           lucky in 2000.  The others had stopped polling because it was
           going to be a Bush blowout until the Dem's dropped their ancient
           DUI garbage bomb a day before everyone voted.  Zogby's
           methodology is use blindly use the same percentages by party as
           voted in 2000.  This looks good on paper but is naive and ignores
           all current events and worse ignores what people are actually
           telling him about their own voting habits and intentions.  He
           trusts them to say who they'll vote for but not if they'll vote?
           \_ I like that you defend Gallup's completely off-base result
              by blaming it on the DUI issue.  You really think that swung
              the election over 8 points in one day?  You're smoking crack.
              By the way, Zogby got within one tenth of one percent in 1996
              as well.  As for Gallup, this is not a partisan thing, although
              Moveon is trying to make it into one.  There are serious problems
              with Gallup's likely voter methodology - there are plenty of
              statisticians concerned about it.  Anyway, anyone who thinks this
              race is anything other than tied is drinking serious Koolaid.
              \_ BUSH LANDSLIDE IN CALIFORNIA!!!11!1
2025/05/24 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
5/24    

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Cache (2025 bytes)
csua.org/u/9j5 -> www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=WS0M2PRPFEUSMCRBAELCFFA?type=topNews&storyID=6530332
MORE By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic Sen. John Kerry pulled into a statistic al dead heat with President Bush in a seesawing battle for the White Hou se, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released Monday. The latest three-day tracking poll showed Kerry and Bush deadlocked at 45 percent apiece barely two weeks before the Nov. The preside nt had a 46-44 percent lead over the Massachusetts senator the previous day, and a four-point lead the day before that. About 7 percent of likely voters say they are still undecided between the two White House rivals. "This is, as I have said before, the same kind of roller coaster ride we saw in 2000 with the lead changing back and forth and neither candidate able to open up any kind of lead," pollster John Zogby said. Kerry campaigned Sunday in Ohio and Florida while Bush took a day off in Washington. Ohio and Florida top a list of about 10 tightly fought swing states where the race for the 270 electoral votes needed to claim the W hite House will be decided. With both candidates battling for every last vote, Bush holds a four-poin t edge in the suburbs and the two candidates are tied in small cities, t he poll found. Kerry comfortably leads Bush among urban voters and Bush holds a strong lead among rural voters. Kerry, who is Catholic but has sparked opposition among some Catholic bis hops by supporting abortion rights, now leads among Catholic voters by 4 percentage points. The poll of 1,211 likely voters was taken Friday through Sunday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 29 percentage points. A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polli ng, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen. The poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democra ts for drawing enough votes from Al Gore to cost him the election in 200 0, with the support of 1 percent of likely voters.