Berkeley CSUA MOTD:Entry 34175
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2025/05/24 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
5/24    

2004/10/17-18 [Politics/Domestic/Election] UID:34175 Activity:very high
10/14   http://electoral-vote.com shows that there are only a few Strong
        Kerry states while there are many many Strong Bush states.
        Kerry is doomed! 4 more years of Bush, 4 more years of doom!
                                 Wrong. 4 more years of freedom! _/
                                 \_ 4 more years of freedom fries!  -John
        \_ Uhm, yeah.  If Kerry takes florida (which is a tie), he wins
           the election.  You're either an idiot, a troll, or a right wingnut.
           \_ Uhm, yeah.  If you've been watching the polls you would know
              that Florida has been polling more to the Bush side than the
              Kerry side as a rule.  If Kerry takes Texas he wins the
              election!  Don't bet your money on a single poll from an
              oddball source.  Desire does not create reality.
              \_ You should do your homework, bub.  It doesn't sound like you
                 have.  Don't get me wrong, I think Bush is going to win,
                 but I doubt any prediction can reasonably be made at this
                 point with any assurity.
                 \_ I've been reading several poll sites on a daily basis for
                    months, not just the hand chosen stuff at electoral-vote.
                    If you'd like to educate me and demonstrate where I'm
                    wrong and inaccurate, go right ahead.  Until then your
                    reply isn't useful.
                    \_ Almost all of the polls have Ohio tied, for the last
                       four weeks. If Kerry wins Ohio, he probably wins.
               http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/oh_polls.html
              \_ Four more hurricanes!
2025/05/24 [General] UID:1000 Activity:popular
5/24    

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6/3     Since no one else seems to be willing to bite, here is my case
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electoral-vote.com
News electoral college strong kerry Strong Kerry (95) electoral college weak kerry Weak Kerry (91) electoral college barely kerry Barely Kerry (74) electoral college tied Exactly tied electoral college barely bush Barely Bush (56) electoral college weak bush Weak Bush (70) electoral college strong bush Strong Bush (148) Needed to win: 270 Oct. Compare the pollsters link under the map for a detailed co mparison. Other than the Rasmussen tracking polls, which average data over 7 or 14 days and thus don't move quickly, the only poll today is the 13th poll i n Oklahoma since Sept. The answer is simple: control of the US Se nate may hinge on the race between Brad Carson and Tom Coburn th ere. The polls are really about the Senate race, but once you have order ed a poll (typically for $10,000 to $15,000) depending on the number of questions, asking about the presidential race doesn't add much to the co st. Carson is currently slightly ahead, but it is very tight. Based on today's polling data, it looks like the new Senate will be 51 Re publicans and 49 Democrats (including independent Jeffords who caucuses with the Democrats). While I don't talk about the Senate rac es every day, there are almost-daily updates to the Senate page. It is n ow listed on the menu as well as at the bottom of the page. The battle f or the Senate may motivate many people to vote in states where the presi dential race is a done deal, such as Oklahoma, South Dakota, Alaska, and others. There is also a huge battle for the House, but senators are mor e fun to watch in action. The site has had technical problems repeatedly in the past several days a nd has been down several times. I didn't want to discuss this, but I don 't want anyone to think the problem was an incompetent hosting service. The site has been subjected to a full-scale, well-org anized, massive attack with the clear intention to bring it down. The at tackers have tried repeatedly to break in, but the server is a rock-soli d Linux system which has stood up to everything they threw at it and has n't crashed since I got it in May While our troops are fighting and dyi ng to bring freedom of speech to the Iraqi people, there are forces in A merica who find this concept no longer applicable to America. I don't kn ow who is behind this attack yet (although we are working it), but it is too professional to be some teenager working from a home PC. Given that all the hate mail and threats I get come entirely from Republicans, I c an make an educated guess which side is trying to silence me, but I won' t say. For $150, I upped my server capacity by adding an additional Pentium 4 with lots of bells and whistles. I burned thr ough half a dozen web hosting companies before finding them. The others all promised the moon in their ads but the promised service vanished ins tantly as soon as they got paid. Hostrocket is a big company, with tens of thousands of customers, many of them large companies, and the technic al staff is knowledgeable and very oriented towards helping the customer s They have done a wonderful job dealing with this attack. If you need a web hosting company for your business where reliability and customer s ervice are top priorities, I recommend them very highly. In the event that the site goes down again, one way to at least get the score and the daily commentary is via the RSS feed. RSS information page now and print it out for future use. I f the site goes down, you won't be able to get to it then. It is still there, but you h ave to go the actual file each day. As I said yesterday, I think the current map is actually a better pr edictor of the outcome than an average of the past 30, 60, or 90 days, n o matter how weighted. Media news: The Sinclair Broadcast Group, which reaches about 1/4 of all American homes, has ordered its stations to pre-empt regular programming just before the election to run a long attack ad on John Kerry thinly d isguised as a documentary on Vietnam. com has the story, including links to articles in the New York Times, Los Angeles Ti mes, and Washington Post. For big companies, freedom of speech is still applicable.
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www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/oh_polls.html
SUSA | 9/6-9/8 698 LV 38 53 35 12 Voinovich +18 Key: RV = Registered Voters, LV = Likely Voters, A = Adults * Strategic Vision is a Republican polling firm.